We had a 1-2 SU record in Week 4, but oh what could have been! We cashed a +155 winner on Northern Illinois over Minnesota, but we fell one point short with Ohio +210 vs. Marshall and we lost by six points with West Virginia +300 vs. LSU. If it is any consolation, our teams did go 3-0 ATS.
This week’s Upset 3-Pack includes a pair of high profile marquee matchups, although our first play is not one of them.
UPSET #1: Wyoming (+3½) +140 over Toledo
Toledo enters this game off of three consecutive road upsets, which is a very difficult position for any favorite. Things should be even tougher for the Rockets here though, as they took advantage of 13 turnovers during their three-game upset streak, and that kind of random luck cannot be counted on from week to week. Toledo is still averaging a meager 260.2 yards per game, 2.9 yards per rush, and 6.4 yards per pass attempt, so they need all the help they can get. Wyoming may have lost three straight games, but the streak started with a cover at Texas and ended with another cover at home vs. Air Force, with the only blowout loss coming at the hands of Boise State in between. The Broncos do that to a lot of people though. Look for battle tested Wyoming to get over the hump in this spot.
UPSET #2: Texas (+3½) +155 over Oklahoma
Texas may very well have been looking ahead to this annual war while they were busy committing five turnovers and getting shocked at home by UCLA last week. The Longhorns have the far superior defense between these teams, and we even look for the Texas offense to improve, provided they can hang on to the ball, vs. what has been a surprisingly awful Sooners defense. After always having a strong defense in the past, Oklahoma is allowing 421.2 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush and 7.8 yards per pass attempt this year. Comparatively, Texas is allowing only 227.8 yards per contest on a miniscule 2.7 yards per rush and 5.5 yards per pass. Oklahoma has gotten away with their poor defense while going 4-0 vs. a weak schedule so far, but their luck ends in the Red River Rivalry!
UPSET #3: Stanford (+7) +245 over Oregon
People love scoring and thus have fallen in love with an Oregon team that is averaging 57.8 points per game, Well, Stanford is averaging 48 points per game, and if you factor in strength of schedule, Stanford has the better defense. Sure, Oregon is allowing 11.0 points per game while Stanford is allowing 13.8, but you must consider that the Ducks shut down the likes of Portland State, New Mexico and Tennessee, and when they finally faced a legitimate opponent in Arizona State, they allowed 31 points. Stanford meantime has knocked heads with UCLA, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. That is the same UCLA team that feasted on Houston and Texas the last two weeks, and the Cardinal shut them out 35-0. Look for Stanford to stop the potent Oregon offense enough to pull the shocker.