Archives for November 2011

College Basketball Betting Stats: Hot and Not Against the Spread

The start of the 2011-12 NCAA basketball betting conference slate has already tipped off with the thick of it going down in the New Year. Is there a better time to take a look at the pointspread breakdown of teams that have excelled and failed against the spread?

The following is a look at the teams that have treated CBB bettors favorably and poorly over the course of the season heading into 2012.

Pointspread Dominators:

1) Wisconsin Badgers (9-2 ATS) Bo Ryan once again has a feisty squad in Madison led by senior guard Jordan Taylor. The Badgers are deadly from beyond the arc (#16 at 41.1%) and play the best defense in the country allowing just 44.4 points per game (#1) and an opponent field goal percentage of just 33.3 percent (#1). Because of it, the ‘under’ has cashed in nine of their 11 lined games!

2) Georgetown Hoyas (7-0 ATS) The Hoyas came out of the blocks scorching hot covering all three of their games in the Maui Classic against Kansas, Chaminade, and Memphis, and that NCAA basketball betting prowess has continued with them most recently taking down Louisville in the KFC Yum! Center to kick-off Big East play; head coach JT III’s kids certainly look to be one of the better teams in the country this season.

3) St. Joseph’s Hawks (8-1 ATS) It’s been a number of years since we heard from head coach Phil Martelli’s Hawks, but 2012 looks to be the year St. Joe’s once again competes for top honors in the A10. Guards Carl Jones (18.5 PPG) and Langston Galloway (16.0 PPG) bring back memories from the good old days when Jameer Nelson and Delonte West shot the Hawks all the way to the Elite 8.

4) Mid Tenn State Blue Raiders (9-2 ATS) MTSU is the only team in the East Division of the Sun Belt Conference that’s tallied 10+ wins. They’ve done so by scoring an average of 76.1 PPG (#53) while shooting a country’s best 52.6 percent from the field (#1). They’ve also cleaned the glass (+4 rebounding margin) and allowed just 62.6 PPG (#83).

5) Nevada Wolf Pack (8-2 ATS) In his first year as head coach of the Wolf Pack, David Carter has his kids sitting pretty entering WAC play as the only team in the conference with at least 10 victories. They went into their extended break winners of six in a row versus the closing NCAA basketball betting odds after throttling Portland 78-60 as 12.5-point chalk.

Bankroll Busters

1) UC Davis Aggies (1-9-1 ATS) After managing just 10 covers in 26 tries a season ago, it’s once again been a rough go of it for the Aggies in 2011 who own just one win in a non-lined match-up with UC Santa Cruz. Thankfully it resides within the mediocre at best Big West.

2) Villanova Wildcats (1-9 ATS) This program has been on the decline each of the last two seasons, and it looks to have hit rock bottom for head coach Jay Wright who has to deal with a ton of youth in 2011-12. Nova’s hardly been competitive against its better opposition, and now it has to open up Big East play – Yuck!

3) George Washington Colonials (2-9 ATS) Whatever happened to Pops Mensah-Bonsu? That team was fun to watch – this team is not! It can’t score (#310 at 60.7 PPG), can’t rebound (-2.0 RPG), and can’t defend the 3-ball (#266 at 36.2%); no wonder it’s dropped each of its L/7 versus the closing number.

4) Portland Pilots (3-10 ATS) Defense looks to be optional up in the Pacific Northwest this season with the Pilots allowing their opposition to convert an absurd 46.8 percent of their shots (#314) en route to scoring an average of 78.1 PPG (#331). Until this squad discovers how to play some defense, fade away – it’s at seven losses in a row and counting!

5) Northeastern Huskies (1-8 ATS) The Huskies NCAA basketball betting futility reached six straight games their last time out at NC State where they got pounded 88-59 as 11.5-point underdogs. Along with amassing a 1-5 ATS tally on the road, it’s failed to cover any of its three lined games as a host. Four of this teams next five games come away from home.

Saints vs. Lions Sunday Night Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction

The Detroit Lions have had a quick fall from grace, as they were America’s Darlings when they were 5-0, but they are now being cast as dirty players in light of the childish actions of Ndamukong Suh in front of a national television audience on Thanksgiving Day.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints again proved that they can score vs. anyone when playing here at home with a 49-24 beatdown of the New York Giants Monday night.

The Saints have been installed as (-9) favorites for this contest with the total set at 54.


1. Why New Orleans will cover the spread: New Orleans will cover this spread if they can make some defensive stops. It is almost a given that the Saints can score on anyone, and yes their offense is good enough to cover this game on its own. Still, with this spread higher than a touchdown, the defense has to clamp down at least somewhat and not leave the door open for a backdoor cover. They just allowed Eli Manning to pass for 406 yards, but to the Saints’ credit, that is because they completely shut down the Giants’ normally good running game and had New York in comeback mode all night.

SAINTS vs. LIONS Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?

2. Why Detroit will cover the spread: Detroit will cover the spread if it can run the ball effectively vs. a New Orleans run defense that is still allowing 5.0 yards per carry even after a great performance Monday night. The Lions were a one-dimensional passing team early in the year, but they have found some balance in recent weeks and they even rushed for 136 yards on an impressive 6.5 yards per carry vs. the Green Bay Packers in their 27-15 Thanksgiving loss.

If the running game performs well again this week, it would serve the dual purpose of opening things up for quarterback Matthew Stafford and keeping the potent New Orleans offense on the sideline.

3. Total Talk: We do expect the Lions to run the ball better than the Giants did, but while the Saints should thus have fewer possessions than they did on Monday, we still expect New Orleans to make the most out of them. With Suh suspended for this game, Drew Brees should not be under much pressure, allowing him to pick apart the Detroit secondary, and if the Lions decide to bring some pressure, Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against the blitz.

We also look for the Lions to score with a more balanced attack keeping an already suspect New Orleans defense off balance. In case you have not figured it out, we like the ‘over’ in this contest.

4. Betting Trends for the game: The ‘over’ is 13-6-1 in the L/20 Detroit games during the month of December, as well as 18-7-1 in Detroit’s L/26 road games overall. The Saints are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine December games while the Lions are 11-4-1 ATS in their L/16 games overall. However, the Saints are 11-5 ATS the L/16 times they gained more than 350 yards their previous game.

5. Saints-Lions SNF Prediction: New Orleans 38 – Detroit 23


Top 5 NFL Cappers On BetVega Went 34-6 Combined Last Week!

Pay the bookie again this week? Did you waste your time handicapping games and only see a small return? No worries, just follow the week 13 NFL betting picks from the top handicappers here on

Just click on an NFL handicapper below and you will be taken to their specific NFL picks page here at BetVega. You no longer have to search around wondering who is the best NFL handicapper…..we have all of their 100% documented records and winning selections available, all in one website!


Top NFL Handicappers On Past 7 Days (click a capper’s name to see their picks)
Service Units ROI Pct WL
Patrick Webb +915.0 +67.1% 84.6% 11-2
Black Widow +676.0 +66.3% 88.9% 8-1
John Martin +674.0 +54.7% 81.8% 9-2
Jack Jones +498.0 +63.8% 85.7% 6-1
Mikey Sports +400.0 +87.9% 100.0% 4-0
Dennis Macklin +393.0 +29.5% 66.7% 8-4
John Anthony +300.0 +94.3% 100.0% 3-0
Rocky Sheridan +300.0 +39.0% 71.4% 5-2
Jordan Runco +300.0 +54.6% 80.0% 4-1
Craig Trapp +295.0 +52.3% 80.0% 4-1


LSU vs. Georgia Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction SEC Championship


The top ranked LSU Tigers put their perfect season at stake vs. the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday in the Georgia Dome. This may seem odd when talking about an SEC Championship, but this game may actually be anticlimactic with everyone eagerly anticipating the LSU vs. Alabama rematch in the National Championship Game.

Now, there is no question that LSU is the better team here and the Tigers should win by at least two touchdowns if they bring their maximum effort. That is the biggest key to this contest for both sides though.

LSU has been installed as a (-13½) favorite with the total set at 46.

ODDS: OPEN: LSU -11 | CURRENT: LSU -14 | O/U: 47

1. Why LSU will cover the spread: LSU must feel conflicted here, as yes they want to win the SEC Championship, but a win by any margin puts them in the National Championship Game, so there is no reason to run up the score here and risk injuries to key players in the process. LSU will cover this spread if it opens up a big early lead, something that would be much easier to do if fully motivated for this game. LSU will also cover more easily if it is able to run the ball vs. a Georgia run defense that is allowing only 94.9 rushing yards per game on 3.0 yards per carry. LSU has been able to run the ball on every team that it has faced though, including rushing for 148 yards vs. Alabama, so we do not see the Bulldogs shutting down the Tigers running attack.

2. Why Georgia will cover the spread: Now many people including ourselves feel that the National Championship Game is already set and that even an LSU loss here would drop them no lower than second in the final BCS Standings, keeping the rematch with Alabama intact. Georgia will cover this thread if LSU treats this game as a tune up, possibly even resting key players if the Tigers have a lead in the fourth quarter, leaving the backdoor wide open. Motivation aside, Georgia will also cover this spread if it can out gain LSU overall, just as the Bulldogs have outgained every single opponent during their current 10-game winning streak.

3. Total Talk: We think this game will be somewhere in between, meaning that LSU will not consciously run up the score, but the Tigers are so good that they can still win by 20 points while basically running out the clock in the fourth quarter while eagerly anticipating the NCG. That makes this total very tricky. We would like the ‘over’ at this posted total of 46 if we knew for certain that LSU would go full throttle from start to finish. As it is, we have just the slightest of leans toward the ‘over’.

4. Betting Trends for the game: One reason why LSU is the best team in the country is because it is 7-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records. LSU is also on an 8-0 ATS run after allowing less than 275 yards in its previous game. Now, Georgia is 8-2 ATS during its 10-game winning streak, but the Bulldogs are on an 0-6 ATS run as underdogs.

5. SEC Championship Prediction: LSU 34 – Georgia 14


Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction

There are some people in certain circles that feel Oklahoma State has a chance to crash the BCS Championship Game with a big win over Oklahoma on Saturday. We are not one of those people, as we feel that an LSU vs. Alabama rematch is already etched in stone regardless of what LSU does this week.

That should be a moot point though, as we are looking for Oklahoma to upset the Cowboys in Stillwater this Saturday, quite possibly knocking Oklahoma State out of the BCS bowl picture entirely. Oklahoma State is a (-3½) favorite at home, with the total set at 74.


Oklahoma-OSU Offenses:People are enamored with the Oklahoma State offense, and rightfully so as it is averaging 49.8 points and 562.6 total yards per game, and those figures rise to an unbelievable 55.8 points and 607.2 yards when playing here in Stillwater! That said, the Cowboys have probably not faced a defense as good as Oklahoma’s all year, and Oklahoma State is coming off of its worst offensive performance of the entire season in a shocking 37-31 overtime loss at Iowa State.

Besides, the Cowboys have probably had the far superior offense in every one of their games this season, and Oklahoma is much closer to them in offensive performance than the other teams they have faced. The Sooners are averaging 43.0 points and 547.9 yards per game, and their numbers do not slip when they go on the road, where they average 44.2 points and 533.6 yards. Remember that Oklahoma State was a small favorite in this matchup here in Stillwater last season, and the Sooners still prevailed 47-41 to make it seven straight wins for Oklahoma in this head-to-head series.

OKLAHOMA vs. OSU Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?

Oklahoma-OSU Defenses:The defensive side of the ball is where Oklahoma has a huge advantage, and that’s the reason the Sooners will not only cover but win this game outright! Oklahoma has a good defense by Big 12 standards, allowing 20.8 points and 373.0 yards per game while surrendering just 3.4 yards per rush and 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Now we get that nobody shuts down the Oklahoma State offense entirely, but this defense is good enough to at least keep the Cowboys in check, allowing the Sooners’ offense to win this game for them.

The Oklahoma State defense is more typical of the Big 12, as that unit is allowing 27.3 points and 453.6 total yards per game. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.4 yards per rush, so with Oklahoma averaging a nice 4.8 yards per carry on the ground, look for the Cowboys to get worn down up front and for Sooners’ quarterback Landry Jones to then pick apart a tired defense.

Oklahoma-OSU “Bedlam” Prediction:The big advantage that the Sooners’ defense has over the Oklahoma State defense here seems to outweigh the much smaller advantage that the Cowboys’ offense has over the Oklahoma offense. Do not be surprised if Oklahoma State is held below 40 points for the second straight game.

Oklahoma 41 – Oklahoma State 34


Updated BCS Rankings & Top College Football Handicappers On BetVega

Our weekly update of the 2011 College Football BCS Rankings are below, along with the latest top College Football Handicapper records (past 30 days) on

Service Units ROI Pct WL
Glenn Andrew +1701.0 +15.6% 60.0% 60-40
Freddy Wills +1359.0 +29.2% 67.4% 29-14
Chip Chirimbes +1223.0 +23.3% 64.6% 31-17
Jordan Runco +1163.0 +38.8% 71.4% 20-8
Johnny Banks +1064.0 +22.9% 64.3% 27-15
Bryan Leonard +1030.0 +38.1% 72.0% 18-7
Timothy Black +821.0 +29.5% 65.4% 17-9
Ben Burns +730.0 +14.9% 60.5% 26-17
John Anthony +579.0 +44.9% 75.0% 9-3
Steve Janus +564.0 +13.4% 59.0% 23-16



Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Vegas Spread Picks, Betting Line Odds, TV Kick-Off Time

See Live Football Betting Odds & Expert Picks for Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State 2011 Game Date: Saturday December 3rd, 2011

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State 2011 Game Kickoff Time: 8:00pm (EST)

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State 2011 Game TV Network: ABC

Who is the public betting on?: CLICK HERE

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Vegas Point Spread: OKLAHOMA STATE -3.5 points <---- click to bet

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Vegas Over-Under Odds: 74 points <---- click to bet

Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Expert Picks: CLICK HERE


Oklahoma is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Oklahoma is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma’s last 9 games
Oklahoma is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma’s last 7 games on the road
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma’s last 9 games when playing Oklahoma State
Oklahoma is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Oklahoma State’s last 13 games at home
Oklahoma State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma State’s last 9 games when playing Oklahoma
Oklahoma State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oklahoma
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State’s last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma


Giants vs. Saints Monday Night Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction

The New York Giants have now lost two straight games since upsetting the Patriots in New England, including a disconcerting home loss to the Eagles without Michael Vick last week that ultimately tightened up the NFC East race.

The Saints are coming off of a bye week after a big overtime road win in Atlanta back in Week 10 leaving them atop the NFC South. The Saints are the (-7) favorites here with this total set at 50½.


1. Why New York will cover the spread: The Giants will cover this spread if they can run the ball effectively with whomever their running back is this week, as Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have take turns missing games with injuries. The Giants figure to run the ball well here with either vs. a Saints’ run defense that is allowing a revolting 5.2 yards per carry. Then again, that figured to be the case last week too vs. Philadelphia’s porous run defense and it never happened. Still, the Saints haven’t stopped the run all year so we will chalk up that Philly game as an anomaly.

If the G-Men run as well as we expect, it would allow Eli Manning to continue his fine season that has seen him average 8.32 yards per pass attempt, which believe it or not is a better average than Drew Brees’ (7.88). Speaking of Brees, the Giants will also cover the spread if they can get ample pressure on him without resorting to blitzing. Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL vs. the blitz, but the New York defensive line is good enough to wreak some havoc on its own.

2. Why New Orleans will cover the spread: Similar to the Giants, the Saints will also cover this spread if they can run the ball well, as that would force the Giants to respect the run and not tee off on Brees with what could be a lethal pass rush, as Tom Brady discovered when the G-Men won in New England a couple weeks back. The Saints are actually averaging a nice 4.6 yards per rush, so they have the potential to be more balanced offensively if they choose to. Instead, they prefer to leave the game in Brees’ hands, and you really cannot knock that approach given their past successes.

The Saints will also cover this spread if they can commit to stopping the run without conceding too much in the defensive backfield.

GIANTS vs. SAINTS Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?

3. Total Talk: We actually think that the ‘over’ is the best bet in this game. We don’t think that either defense is totally equipped to stop the opposing offense; especially the Saints. If New Orleans plays its normal set, the Giants will gain huge chunks on the ground, and we do not think that the Saints’ secondary is good enough to stop New York’s receivers if they commit to stopping the run. On the other side, we think that Brees’ quick release should negate the pressure that the Giants are expected to bring.

4. Betting Trends for the game: The ‘over’ is 18-7-1 in the last 26 Giants’ conference games, as well as 9-4 the last 13 times the Giants have been underdogs. The ‘over’ is also 26-10-1 the last 37 Saints games after an ATS win.

5. Giants-Saints MNF Prediction: Saints 30 – Giants 27


Steelers vs. Chiefs Sunday Night Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off of a bye week after a big win in Cincinnati kept their AFC North title hopes alive, although they will have to win the division outright after losing the season series to Baltimore.

The KC Chiefs are going nowhere this season, as they have now lost three straight games including their first game without quarterback Matt Cassel 34-3 at New England Monday night.

Although they are on the road, the Steelers have been installed as big (-10½) favorites here with the total set at 40.

SNF ODDS: OPEN: PITT -10.5 | CURRENT: PITT -10.5 | O/U: 40

1. Why Pittsburgh will cover the spread: Pittsburgh will cover this spread if their front seven on defense can overwhelm the Kansas City offensive line, thus making young quarterback Tyler Palko’s life miserable all night. Palko did pass for 236 yards vs. the Patriots Monday, but don’t look for anything close to that here while under constant pressure.

On offense, the Steelers will cover this spread if they can run the ball effectively, which would allow Ben Roethlisberger some free reign downfield. That should not be much of a problem considering that a Patriots’ team that hardly ever runs was able to rush for 157 yards vs. the Chiefs last week.

STEELERS vs. CHIEFS Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?

2. Why Kansas City will cover the spread: Kansas City will cover this spread if they can force some turnovers and if Palko can somehow elude the Pittsburgh rush and have some success passing the ball again. We are not confident about the Chiefs forcing fumbles due to their lack of a pass rush, but Kansas City does have a good secondary, and Big Ben does force some passes now and then, so the potential exists for some interceptions. As for Palko, he needs to pass for over 200 yards again just to open up some alleys for the Kansas City running backs later on.

3. Total Talk: In all honesty, as long as Roethlisberger protects the ball here, we simply do not see Kansas City scoring many points in this game, especially with the Steelers having an extra week to prepare for a weak offense and with the Chiefs having a short week after playing on Monday. Now we realize that the combination of playing a double-digit favorite and an ‘under’ rarely makes sense, but we think this game is an exception because, as you can see by our predicted score below, we feel that Pittsburgh will be the only team scoring.

4. Betting Trends for the game: The Steelers fall into a fantastic trend here, that being that road favorites coming off of a bye week are 38-13-2, 74.5 percent ATS since 2002. The Steelers are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, although it bears noting that they are on a 6-15 ATS run as double-digit favorites.

The Chiefs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 conference games, as well as 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Also, the ‘under’ is 7-1 in the last eight Kansas City games following an ATS loss.

5. Steelers-Chiefs SNF Prediction: Pittsburgh 27 – Kansas City 10


Arkansas To Throw BCS For A Loop By Upsetting LSU On Friday

The LSU Tigers are the top ranked team in the country, and virtually the whole world has them penciled into the BCS National Championship Game, possibly in a rematch with Alabama. Well, as Lee Corso would say, “not so fast my friend!” That is, when he’s not blurting out expletives on live TV – love that guy!

The Arkansas Razorbacks have other ideas, and unlike most other teams that LSU has faced, Arkansas has the passing game to attack the Tigers’ secondary. Now, we understand why LSU is a heavy (-12½) favorite here with the total set at 52, but we are looking for Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson to shock the world by passing the Hogs to the upset.


LSU-Arkansas Offenses: We actually give the offensive edge in this contest to Arkansas by a fairly wide margin, with Wilson being the key. The Razorbacks are averaging 39.3 points and 463.5 total yards per game, with 316.9 of those yards coming through the air. Wilson has completed 63.1 percent of his passes while averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, and he has 21 touchdown passes vs. just five interceptions. Yes, he is facing a world class defense but remember that Arkansas was one of two teams to beat LSU last season while passing for 320 yards, and while that was with Ryan Mallet at quarterback, Wilson has stepped right in nicely this season in the exact same system.

The Tigers are right there with Arkansas this season in terms of points scored at 37.9 per game, but LSU is averaging only 378.2 total yards per contest and a lot of its points have come off of short fields created by its great defense. We actually like the LSU offense better with Jarrett Lee at quarterback, as he has proven to be masterful at managing a game, whereas Jordan Jefferson is more athletically gifted but is almost always a turnover waiting to happen when he faces a quality opponent.

LSU vs. ARKANSAS Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?

Arkansas-LSU Defenses: Defense is the reason that LSU is the top ranked team in the country, and deservedly so. The Tigers are allowing only 10.0 points per game on a tiny 2.7 yards per rush and 5.3 yards per pass attempt. That said, due to the Tigers facing both Tennessee and Florida the very week after the starting quarterbacks for both of those teams were injured, we think it is safe to say that the best quarterback that LSU has faced so far this season was Geno Smith of West Virginia, and he passed for an incredible 463 yards against this vaunted Tigers’ defense. We think that Wilson in this Arkansas offensive scheme is just as good.

Now we get that defense is not a strong suit for the Razorbacks, but it is not as if they have been atrocious, allowing a commendable 21.1 points per game. Arkansas has limited its last three opponents to just 2.8 yards per rush, and if they come anywhere close to that here, we will like their upset chances even more!

LSU-Arkansas Prediction: Look for Wilson to have more success vs. the LSU defense than any other quarterback has had this year, and for the Arkansas defense to commit to stopping the run and daring the LSU quarterbacks to beat them. The end result should be an upset.

Arkansas 28 – LSU 24