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(***Updated 2012 Election Odds Article: CLICK HERE****)

Even though he has been in office for just over a year, Barack Obama’s long-term future as the President of the United States is already a topic of great debate. While Obama’s approval ratings have dipped over his first 12 months in office, he is still in the desirable position of incumbent heading into 2012.


Since 1936, only three incumbents (Gerald Ford-1976, Jimmy Carter-1980 and George H.W. Bush-1992) have lost in a re-election race as its party’s nominee. In the 2008 election, Obama won 365 electoral votes while capturing 53 percent of the overall vote.

Odds To be Elected President in 2012:

Obama is a -125 favorite (odds from Bodog.com) among all possible candidates to win the 2012 race. After losing in 2008 as a vice-presidential candidate on the Republican ticket, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is the next choice at +1000. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is next at +1200. He failed to capture the Republican nomination in 2008. Among the group of contenders at +1500 are Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mike Huckabee and Rob Portman.

Party Elected President in 2012:

In terms of which political party will be elected, the Democratic Party is favored at -160 while the Republicans are at +120. Any other political party is at +3000 although no third party has won a presidential election since 1848. Since 1940, each of the two major parties has won nine presidential elections. It has been difficult for either party to maintain a long run in the White House. Since 1952, there has been only one occasion when a single party has held the presidency for longer than eight years. This occurred from 1980-1992 when the Republicans won three straight elections.

Democratic Party 2012 Nominee:

As expected, Obama is the huge favorite in this category at -700. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (+600) and Vice-President Biden (+800) are the other options in this category. Based on recent history, it would be an upset for anyone other than Obama to represent the Democratic Party in 2012. Since 1952, only one incumbent has failed to seek re-election (Lyndon Johnson-1968). While Biden is next in line to be president, only three presidents have died in office over the last 100 years.

Republican 2012 Nominee:

Sarah Palin is the slight favorite in this category at +350 over Romney at +400. Mike Huckabee, the former Governor of Arkansas, is next on the list at +500 followed by Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal at +600. Some of the other notable betting options are former New York City Mayor Rudolph Guiliani (+1500), former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (+1500) and 2008 Republican nominee John McCain (+2000).


There is some recent history that could point to Palin winning the nomination. It isn’t too uncommon for a candidate to lose a race as a vice-presidential nominee before eventually becoming the presidential nominee for a party. Walter Mondale was the Democratic Party’s nominee in 1984 after losing as a vice-president in 1980 while Robert Dole became the Republican nominee in 1996 after losing as Gerald Ford’s vice-president in 1976.

All 2012 USA Presidential Election Odds

(odds updated 4/10/11 from Bodog.com)

- Barack Obama -175

- Donald Trump +3000

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