Super Bowl XLVI between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants will take place on Sunday, February 5 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN, and do not make a move on that game before reading this Super Bowl Preview.
The line on the Patriots is now down to -3 +110 after an opening line of -3 -125 as most of the early money has been on New York. However, this could be a case of sheep being led to the slaughter, as here are our three reasons why the Patriots will win and cover Super Bowl 46.
ODDS: OPEN: PATRIOTS -3.5 | CURRENT: PATRIOTS -3 | O/U: 55
1. Coach Bill Belichick with regular season revenge: Not only are the Patriots looking to avenge a loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, but the Giants went into New England this season and beat the Patriots again 24-20 on November 6. This is significant because almost nobody beats Coach Bill Belichick in same season revenge situations. No other coach has been as clever as Belichick at devising ways to counteract what teams that beat him did in these rematches, and as a result, he is 28-10 against the spread with same season revenge as New England’s coach.
As if that weren’t scary enough, consider also that he has two full weeks to prepare for this contest, so you can bet he will find a way to defuse the Giants’ pass rush when the Patriots have the ball, which may be the biggest key of all to victory. He should also find ways to creatively cover the New York receivers when the defense is on the field.
2. Tom Brady never has two bad games in a row: Tom Brady had a rare bad game vs. the Ravens, completing only 22-of-36 passes for a low 239 yards and two interceptions with no touchdowns. How often has Brady had back-to-back bad games in the same playoff season? We would confidently say never, and if you go back to our first key to this game, it should be a safe bet that Belichick will implement a game plan to maximize Brady’s vast ability.
Remember that Brady lost his favorite target in tight end Rob Gronkowski for an extended time in the Ravens’ game due to an ankle injury, and thus the New England no-huddle offense did not run as smoothly as usual. Gronkowski should be fine with two weeks to recuperate, and that no-huddle has been unstoppable with the tight ends Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez on the field at the same time.
Patriots vs. Giants 2012 Super Bowl Betting:
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3. Patriots bend-don’t-break defense is not as bad as many think: Everyone focuses on the fact that the Patriots ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in total defense this season, but what often goes overlooked is the fact that New England only allowed more than 25 points just once all season, and that was way back in Week 3 in a 34-31 loss at Buffalo where Brady uncharacteristically tossed four interceptions; as many as he threw all of last season.
Say what you will about all the yards the Patriots give up, but most of that is in front of the defense and allowing 20.5 points per game combining the regular season and playoffs is not bad at all when the offense is averaging a hefty 31.2 points!
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