You’d think that since the Super bowl is the most wagered, single event in North America, there would be a book on how to bet on it. But there’s not.
Never to fear, because we here at BetVega.com have put together a simple guide to help you make the most return on your bet for this year’s big game.
While many people tend to fall into a very flawed line of thinking when placing their Super bowl bets, a few easy tips will help clear of some of the most common Super bowl betting gaffes, that leave the vast majority to over bet this game for a couple of different reasons.
The most common reason usually comes from how the teams have played during the regular season. It turns into a situation where people will try to “get it all back” in a single game. We cannot stress enough just how important it is to avoid betting the Super Bowl with that mind set.
Bettors should treat this just as they would any other game. Basically, do not bet just for the sake of betting. If you cannot find a clear edge, then you should do what you have done every other time in the same situation in the games leading up to this one. Pass or do more research.
So you still can’t find the edge you are looking for? That is when you can turn your attentions to the numerous amount of prop bets that are available for the Super bowl. This is where you have the opportunity to find some true, value plays.
Here are a few betting tips to help handicap the 2012 Super Bowl:
– Compare the game line to a reliable set of power ratings:
Some people do their own ratings, and there are a wealth of other reliable ratings out there, but the rating system preferred by most is the Sagarin Ratings. Jeff Sagarin has been providing ratings for USA TODAY since 1985, and the reason these are highly used amongst the betting community is because he has a set for every sport, and people like to stick to a certain comfort zone.
For this year’s Super bowl matchup, he has the teams about three points apart, with the Patriots holding a slight advantage. Does that look familiar? Well, it should as it is the overall line in this one.
– Compare the total to the average scores for the entire year for each team:
When combining the total points in New York’s games this season, you get a total of a little over 48. When switching focus over to the Patriots you get a number that is just shy of 53.
Then take into account the total of this game, which is 55. You can clearly see that both of the team’s totals fall short of that number. This is an early indicator that the under could have some value that is worth looking into a little more closely. But read on before you make up your mind.
– Compare the strengths and weaknesses of each offense to the strengths and weaknesses of each opposing defense and adjust the spread and/or total accordingly:
In this particular case, these two teams are quite similar all across the board. We’ll start on the offensive side of the ball.
Both of these teams are heavily reliant upon the passing game, and they both do this quite effectively as the Giants and Patriots sat in the top five in the league during the regular season. They are similar in the rushing department as well, in that they are both pretty poor in this area. The key difference on offense is in the giveaways. The Patriots were one of the best in this area all season long, while the Giants were pretty average.
If you are looking for one advantage between the two offenses, the turnovers is where you will find it.
Meanwhile, both New England’s and New York’s defense are also quite similar, in that they are both below average units with huge deficiencies in the passing department. With to pass-happy teams, this could end up being a shootout that is destined to go higher than their season averages would predict to date.
The one true advantage that the Giants hold in this match-up is that they get after the quarterback as well as any other team in football. Look for that to be a possible momentum shifter in this one.
– Take injuries for both teams into account:
Both of these teams could be without the services of a starting defensive player in this one.
The Giants could be without linebacker, Chase Blackburn. While he is a starter for this team, his impact is not quite as big as the possibility of New England’s star cornerback, Kyle Arrington missing out on Super Sunday. He was forced out of action against Baltimore and remains questionable for this one. This may end up being a big deal, as Arrington is a key contributor to the Patriots outstanding takeaway rate, as he led the NFL with seven interceptions during the regular season.
That could be a huge blow to an already bad pass defense for the Patriots.
– After getting an idea of how you think the game will play out, examine peripheral bets such as halves, quarters, and props:
The prop that deserves some attention is the total rushing yards on both sides. Given that this game is likely going to be decided through the air, the under on both of these should warrant a look.
Well, there you have it. Hopefully, this guide helps add a little more fun and excitement to your Super bowl betting experience.
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