Millions of people will be watching Super Bowl XLVI between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots on Sunday, February 5, and not all of them will be rooting for a side or a total.
That is because it was the Super Bowl that first made prop betting popular, and there are now more props available for the Super Bowl than for any other NFL game. Not all prop lines are sharp either, so here are some of our favorites for Sunday.
Total Rushing Yards – Ahmad Bradshaw ‘under’ 62½ (-115): The Giants have run the ball better lately, but the Patriots have defended the run better as of late also and the bigger mismatch in this game appears to be the New York receivers vs. the New England secondary. Thus look for a pass-heavy game plan at the expense of the running game.
Longest Rush – Brandon Jacobs ‘under’ 10½ (-130): When the Giants do run the ball, Ahmad Bradshaw should be the back getting more opportunities and Jacobs is more of a power back anyway that is not known for his speed. Yes, he had eight games this year where he broke off a double-digit run but New England is allowing only 3.6 yards per rush in the playoffs.
Total Receptions – Hakeem Nicks ‘over’ 5½ (-130): Victor Cruz has been the Giants’ biggest home run threat but Nicks is starting to reclaim his role as the number one option for Eli Manning as he has 23 receptions in the last four games. Manning should throw a ton of passes this game too.
Total Receiving Yards – Wes Welker ‘over’ 82½ (-125): Welker has been very quiet in the last three games with 53, 55 and 51 receiving yards respectively. We think a break-out game is in order here as Welker should be targeted a lot on quick passes to the slot with Tom Brady trying to beat the Giants pressure, and he should also benefit by fewer passes thrown Rob Gronkowski’s way.
Longest Reception – Victor Cruz ‘over’ 27½ (-125): Did we mention Cruz has been the Giants’ biggest home run threat?
Patriots vs. Giants 2012 Super Bowl Betting:
– Patriots vs. Giants Expert Picks: CLICK HERE
– Patriots vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: CLICK HERE
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Total Receiving Yards – Rob Gronkowski ‘under’ 73½ (-115): Check the wording where you play this as some books require that a player must start to have action and some only require that he play. In any event, you get a refund if “Gronk” cannot play. We imagine he will play in a game like this, but he will be severely limited as he has the same high ankle sprain injury that Ben Roethlisberger had at the end of the year.
Total Rushing Attempts – Aaron Hernandez ‘under’ 2½ (-130): Hernandez has carried the ball on straight hand-offs out of the backfield eight times in two playoff games, but the novelty has now worn off and Hernandez is expected to have an expanded role in the passing game here with Gronkowski limited. With that the case, don’t look for any running plays from Aaron this week.
Player to score first New England touchdown in game – Aaron Hernandez (+400): That expansion of Hernandez’s role should include him becoming the go-to tight end in the red zone, so this prop oozes value.
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