All is left to play for in the SEC West with one week left in the season, as the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers square off for the right to go to the SEC Championship Game. The loser will not only see their SEC title hopes crushed, but their National Championship dreams will likely be gone as well.
Alabama opened as a relatively heavy favorite of 15 points for the 2013 IRON BOWL on November 30th, while the total has been set at 54 points. Over the past week we have seen a massive move in the line down to Alabama -10.5.
ALABAMA-AUBURN BETTING LINE 2013:
OPEN: BAMA -15 | CURRENT: BAMA -10.5 | O/U: 54
1. Why ALABAMA will cover the spread: All season long, we were talking about games against teams like Texas A&M and LSU that were the hardest of the season for the Tide, but as it has turned out, it’s this game against Auburn which will probably be the most difficult. The Crimson Tide have always turned out big results in road games, as they haven’t lost a game away from Tuscaloosa since losing to the Bayou Bengals in Baton Rouge back in 2010. Though its defense hasn’t been as dominating this year as it has been in recent seasons, Alabama is still holding teams down to just 10.2 points per game this year, and only A&M managed to score more than 17 against this defense.
2. Why AUBURN will cover the spread: Simply put, the only way that Auburn covers the spread in this game is if QB Nick Marshall is amazing. We have seen QB Johnny Manziel do some wild things against this Alabama defense twice, and Marshall is built in the same mold. He’s a lot like QB Cam Newton, who managed to come back from down three touchdowns to beat the Tide three seasons ago when these two met in Tuscaloosa with basically the same stakes on the line. Marshall can do it with his arm and his legs, and he is going to need both in this game for sure.
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3. Total Talk: Auburn has been playing against relatively high totals all season long thanks to Head Coach Gus Malzahn and his wild offense. The Tigers have scored at least 30 points in six straight games, each of which have resulted in wins and covers. Four of their last five have exceeded the number. Alabama has also played four of its last five games past the total, something that you don’t normally see out of the Crimson Tide.
4. Betting Trends for Alabama/Auburn: The Iron Bowl has been a beat down of epic proportions these last two seasons, as Alabama has won by an aggregate score of 91-14. The Tigers are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS in the last five games in this series, but they have been a lot better when playing this game at Jordan Hare Stadium. Auburn is 3-1 ATS in the last four Iron Bowls that have been played here at home, though the last outright victory against the Tide at home came in 2007.
Alabama 29 – AUBURN 17