Alabama vs. Georgia Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score PredictionNovember 27, 2012 • By Mike Rose
The SEC Championship Game will also prove to be a national semifinal game as well, as the winner of the clash between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs will go on to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for all the marbles at the BCS National Championship Game in Miami.
This clash from the Georgia Dome isn’t nearly a foregone conclusion though, and this should be a very interesting game at 4:00 p.m. (ET) that is not to be missed. Coverage is set for CBS.
1. Why Alabama will cover the spread: Alabama will cover the spread as long as the defense plays like the Alabama defense. The Tide allowed just 216.9 yards per game and 7.4 points per game against teams not named Texas A&M, and obviously if that keeps up, there’s just no way that Georgia can keep up. Since seeing QB Johnny Manziel and the gang in Tuscaloosa, the Tide have gotten angry on defense, shutting out back to back foes, extending a scoreless streak of 128:37.
2. Why Georgia will cover the spread: The Bulldogs will cover the spread if QB Aaron Murray plays like a Heisman Trophy winner. Few are talking about Murray for Heisman, but few were talking about Johnny Football for the Heisman before a month ago either. Murray has thrown for 3,193 yards and 30 TDs against seven picks, and if he can light up Bama the same way that Manziel did, there is a real chance that the Dawgs can win this game, and he might be on his way to New York next week for the Heisman Trophy presentation.
3. Total Talk: This is historically a series for some higher scoring games. Four in a row have gone past the ‘total’, though the number in this one is higher at 51 than any of those four games have been. Three of the four games since 2002 have reached at least 52 points though, so it might not make all that much of a difference when push comes to shove. Alabama pushed last week’s win over the Auburn Tigers past the ‘total’ by itself, but it is still a rather blah 5-5-1 ‘total’ team this year. Georgia though, has played six in a row ‘under’ the number thanks to five straight games with 14 points or fewer allowed.
4. Betting Trends for Alabama/Georgia: Not surprisingly in those five games, Georgia is 4-1 ATS to go with the fact that it is 5-0 SU. The one failed cover came against Georgia Southern, which really shouldn’t count. Bama had failed to cover three in a row before crushing Auburn. The Bulldogs have covered three of the last four, and they had actually won three straight outright before losing Between the Hedges at the outset of the 2008 season. That was the game that put Alabama on the map under Head Coach Nick Saban. This is the one that will send it to another National Championship Game.
Alabama 31 – Georgia 17
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