Alabama vs. LSU Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, BCS Championship Score Prediction 2012


Lovers of high-scoring games and haters of the SEC won’t like it, but the BCS National Championship Game is a rematch between the top ranked LSU Tigers and the second ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, as this marks the first time in BCS history that two teams from the same conference are meeting for the championship.

The two defenses dominated in the regular season meeting in Tuscaloosa, as LSU won it 9-6 in overtime in a battle of field goals.

These teams are perceived so evenly that the line on this game is a Pick, with the total set at 40.


1. Why LSU will cover the spread: LSU will cover the spread if it contains Alabama running back Trent Richardson as well as it did in the first meeting. Richardson ran for 89 yards, but he averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry and obviously could not find the end zone, and this is someone who averaged 6.0 yards over the entire season with 20 touchdowns.

Another key to LSU covering is running the ball effectively, and they did succeed vs. the great Alabama defense the first go-around, rushing for 148 yards. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson rushed for 43 of them, and he figures to be effective again in the option.

LSU vs. ALABAMA Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?

2. Why Alabama will cover the spread: Alabama will cover this spread if quarterback A.J. McCarron has some passing success early in the game. In fact, it may be a great strategy to have McCarron come out throwing on the first drive, if for no other reason, to loosen up the LSU defense in order for Richardson to find some holes later that were not there in the regular season meeting.

Another key to an Alabama cover is to get LSU into third-and-long situations when the Tide are on defense. This is especially true when Jefferson is in the game, as he is more prone to committing turnovers in pressure situations than the other LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee, who is a better game manager. That being said, Lee did throw two interceptions on only seven pass attempts in the first meeting.

3. Total Talk: We were shocked when the regular season meeting between these teams had a total of 41, and we are just as shocked at this total of 40 in the rematch in light of the first result. No, we did not expect 9-6 the first time, but we did expect the two best defenses in the country to dominate the game, and nothing has happened to change that opinion for this game.

Just about the only risk we see to this ‘under’ is if Alabama Coach Nick Saban heeds our advice and allows McCarron to cut loose early, but history tells us that Saban will remain stubborn and continue to force-feed his horse the pigskin no matter how many times LSU stuffs him.


4. Betting Trends for the game: LSU has earned its top spot by going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. teams with winning records. Also, the ‘under’ is 14-3 in the last 17 Alabama games on artificial turf, as well as in the last 13 LSU games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game.

LSU-ALABAMA BCS Championship Prediction: LSU 20 – Alabama 13


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  • Jacob

    Are you kidding me? Alabama will not lose to the same team twice in one season under Nick Saban ever! I’m pretty sure he will figure out a way to win this one… O wait he already did. Run the ball. Simple as that, you have the best running back in the league that can run over any lineman or linebacker LSU will give him. McCarron will definitely come into this game with a little more confidence this time and the defense? Perfect. They’ve already figured out what they have to do to hold LSU especially since they know they only have to prepare for one quarterback this time.
    -Roll Tide-

  • So Cal Fight-On

    Like your bias writer above I too think Alabama will win but not for the same reasons. I beleive the Tide was the better team in the first game and the biggest play of the game was the interception at the one yard line. I am not excited about this rematch but I do beleive we have the two best teams in the nation playing. Its really to bad the + one can’t be instilled at some time and use the BCS top four teams to play it. 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 with the winners playing one week later for the title. You can still use the BCS bowls to play this out but you would have to use the final BCS rankings to set these 4 teams. That could make the BCS board a little nerevous sence they like to ignore the rankings and put teams into bowls that fit their needs rather than on merit. Fight-On!!

  • rooster

    If bama was the better team,why were they behind on the scoreboard. People get too caught up in Nick Saban. If bama gets a lead,nick will sit on the lead and depend on the defense. Big plays will win the game for the Bayou Bengals again.

  • amanda


  • Caleb

    Well I honestly can’t say that Bama will win because there whole team is so mad or because they already have gotten beat once by LSU. I know one thing they can try and run on LSU’s defense but it will be a low running game because like y’all saw in the previous game they ran but not for as much as Trent usually will run so there running game is out and then onto the passing yards that’s there only hope but rememeber LSU has key players including Claiborne, Mathieu, and Ried. So I think LSU will win 28-14 because of LSU’s dual quarterback and plus there running backs: Hillard, Ford,and Blue will have those running yards because Hillard can break tackles but they won’t get a lot because alabama has just as good as a defense but Jefferson can give a bullet pass while being able to run the ball, and Lee can get those key passes that will get past Alabamas defense so no need to go and say that Alabama will because they lost the last game and what revenge because you can easily have that said to you saying that LSU will win because they are forced to play the team that they have already one beaten!

  • Boudreaux

    I think LSU is getting this one for two reasons, LSU almost lost to Bama and I think they learned their lesson. Two they are playing against their old coach, I’m not saying he deserted the team but he sure did leave them and it could be a vendetta. Just saying. !!

  • Best Bet

    Alabama got out rushed and stuffed..not only in the second half, but also in overtime. People, they went backwards and lost yards in overtime. Look at the second half adjustments made by LSU. What makes people think Alabama will have success throwing the ball against 3 first round draft picks in the secondary? It did not happen in their own back yard how will it happen in the LOUISIANA SUPERDOME….. Also,their field goal kicker never improved, look wha he did the next week. This is a Bookie Game all the way in favor of LSU.

  • squeezerx

    Listen “Best Bet” if you think for one minute that Alabama won’t be you then you Bayou Boys have an even narrower mind than I previously thought. Alabama will beat you in every aspect of the game and leave you crying in the end. So pull up your boot straps and take your wooping like a man and quit crying like a little girl. Have a little dignity……

  • http://Google RUDY

    I am a die hard Alabama fan, and I believe this is definitely gonna be a tough one for the Tide, but its gonna come down to who can manage the game better. Jefferson is a good QB but tends to freeze under pressure. AH on the other hand I believe will be more conservative with the ball. Other than running backs I think both teams are pretty equal. I just hate were having to play in Louisiana that’s a neutral site for LSU. I also believe there are gonna be alot of risks in this game to get through the enzone, not just relying on special teams to win it. Good luck Tide were pulling for you.

  • G8

    The Tigers aren’t going to non-nonchalantly be rolling onto the field. The ‘crimson tide’ got off lightly last time……the tigers are huntin you boys and ya know it.

  • Countryboy

    For all the yards that keep saying saban left the bayou coon butts. He left the Miami dolphins when he came to alabama so give it a rest. Second Alabama lost the previous game because of coaching. We shot ourselves in the foot for letting our kicker attempt 4 more field goals after missing the first two. The ball should have been punted so they wouldn’t have had the good field position. Third you don’t let 55 seconds wined down when you have 2 time outs left. Alabama will win this one the adjustments will be made that need to be made by saban it will be a better ball game and a little more points scored

  • money line85

    I would say LSU all day for a few reasons, one there the better team covering almost all first half and full game spreads where Alabama has struggled in the first half hardly covering the first half spreads after wearing out the other teams defense all Alabama has for offense is Trent Richardson for the most part, and a shithouse qb.where LSU has dominated there spreads 12~1ats, and from a statistical standpoint prime time games the general betting is60% of the wrong.with the public moving Alabama 3 points I like LSU even more, with the over .final score prediction LSU 34 Alabama 17 .

  • slowpoke

    Elephant served up cold in the dome tonight. The Bayou Bengals will win and will win by doule digits. Poor ole Saban just hasn’t figured Miles out yet and most like never will. And, LSU has a hell of a lot more depth on both sides of the ball.

  • Dax

    Roll Tide Roll! bama by by 7. 16-9!!!