There were not many games that were circled as potentially bigger games in the college football betting world than the duel between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas A&M Aggies here in Week 3. This is certainly the showcase game of the week, as the winner will take a huge de facto game and a half lead in the SEC West over their biggest competition.
Even after last year’s loss at home (which we predicted), Bama is laying -7.5 against Texas A&M, while the ‘total’ is as high as you’ll ever see in a game involving the Crimson Tide at 62
ALABAMA – TEXAS A&M 2013 BETTING LINE:
OPEN: ALABAMA -7.5 | CURRENT: ALABAMA -7.5 | O/U: 62
[ALABAMA vs. TEXAS A&M EXPERT BETTING PICKS]
1. Why ALABAMA will cover the spread: The Crimson Tide will cover if they really embrace this whole revenge thing. All the right things are being said right now, but Alabama is used to playing in these big games. It’s only a matter of time until the pressure builds up in such a big way at Texas A&M that it all falls apart and cracks. QB AJ McCarron and his offense are going to want to put together a much better offensive effort in this one than what they put forth two weeks ago versus Virginia Tech.
2. Why TEXAS A&M will cover the spread: The Aggies have two ways of covering the number in this one. Either QB Johnny Manziel really has to be that good, or Alabama really has to be as bad as it looked offensively against Virginia Tech two weeks ago. We know that this Bama defense is as legit as it can be, and it is going to get after Manziel, so the truth of the matter is that the best hope for the Aggies is that the Crimson Tide are simply overrated. If not, it’ll take a second straight season of putting up over 400 yards of offense against the Tide in a superhuman effort for A&M to hang in this one.
3. Total Talk: Last year’s match-up ended with 53 points on the board, and though the Aggies played the game they wanted to play, that one still didn’t reach this ‘total’. Alabama is 3-0-1 for ‘over’ bettors in its last four games dating back to last season, and the offense has scored at least 32 in each of those games. The Aggies have averaged 49.3 points per game throughout their eight-game winning streak dating back to last year, and they’re 5-3 for ‘over’ bettors during that stretch.
4. Betting Trends for the game: Alabama is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when having more than a week to prepare for the game. Simply put, Head Coach Nick Saban never loses in these situations. He also has had all offseason to put in a game plan for Johnny Heisman, and we think that he is going to find a way to get this team back on track. The Aggies have covered four straight in September dating back to last year, but it won’t matter come Saturday afternoon. Roll Tide!
Alabama 31 – Texas A&M 17