Auburn vs. Missouri Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction
A trip to a BCS Bowl will be on the line Saturday afternoon in the Georgia Dome where the Missouri and Auburn Tigers storybook campaigns will collide against one another. Coach Pinkel’s troops punched their ticket to the Georgia Dome by continuing to play stellar defense vs. Johnny Football and the Texas A&M Aggies last week, while the Auburn Tigers won one of the most remarkable games in the history of the Iron Bowl against the then top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide.
AUBURN-MISSOURI SEC CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING LINE:
OPEN: AUBURN -1.5 | CURRENT: AUBURN -2 | O/U: 58
1. Why MISSOURI will cover the spread: Say what you will about Mizzou, it’s taken the best shot from every one of its opponent faced this season, and only came a fluke comeback and eventual win by South Carolina in overtime away from going unscathed. The Tigers play a nasty brand of defense and specialize in stopping the run which just so happens to be the “MO” in which Auburn prefers to pick its opposition apart. Alabama did possess the best run defense in the SEC up until last Saturday. That honor now belongs to the Tigers, so Nick Marshall and Tre Mason will no doubt be tested against Mizzou on the fast track of the dome.
2. Why AUBURN will cover the spread: Doesn’t it just seem like Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn has a lucky leprechaun in his back pocket? It’s been commonplace for his club to snatch victories from the jaws of defeat, and let’s face it, if Auburn is to come out on top of this one, it’ll likely cover the number with the current point-spread negligible. Will it be another Hail Mary, or better yet another miraculous return for a TD off a field goal?
Whatever it is, those that head to the game or tune in for the nationally televised broadcast know all too well that the 2013 version of the Tigers aren’t done until the clock reads double zeroes.
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3. Total Talk: Combined, these teams have played to high scorers in 13 of their 24 overall played game. Missouri has however played to the ‘under’ in four of its L/5 contests with a combined average score of 46.6 points with the lone ‘over’ occurring in a 48-17 pummeling of Kentucky in Lexington. Auburn has cashed ‘over’ tickets in three straight and six of its L/7 games with the only low scorer occurring in a 35-17 road win and cover at Arkansas. The ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in Mizzou’s L/4 on fieldturf, while Auburn has cashed ‘under’ tickets in seven of its L/10 at a neutral setting.
4. Betting Trends for Auburn/Mizzou: These squads have been stellar against winning opposition with Missouri 6-1 ATS its L/7 and Auburn a perfect 6-0 ATS, so it’s tough to pick the pointspread winner from that standpoint. However, one has to figure that Auburn is going to suffer one heck of a letdown here after winning one of the biggest Iron Bowls ever in such dramatic fashion. How many lives does this cat actually have? They used up two of them each of the L/2 weeks while Missouri has been nothing short of consistent and dominant by excelling on both sides of the ball.
Their 14th ranked scoring defense matches up tremendously against Auburn’s vaunted ground attack, and I’m just not convinced Marshall will be able to take advantage of their weakness in defending the pass like A.J. McCarron would have had the Tide not suffered the gut-wrenching defeat. With that the case, I’ll side with the 1-2 punch of James Franklin and Henry Josey and back the Tigers from the SEC East on the $$$-Line in this conference supremacy match-up.
Missouri 28 – Auburn 27