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Texans vs. Steelers MNF Week 7 Odds & Picks

texans-steelers-monday-night-picks
The Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers both have to believe that they have a heck of a shot of getting into the playoffs in the wide open AFC this year. They’ll face off in a really important Monday Night Football duel in the Steel City in Week 7. Houston is getting 3.5 points on the NFL betting lines, while the ‘total’ has been set at 44.5.


TEXANS – STEELERS 2014 MONDAY NIGHT WEEK 7 SPREAD:

OPEN: STEELERS -4 | CURRENT: STEELERS -3 | O/U: 44


1. Why the TEXANS will cover the spread: This defense is fierce. Forget about those 33 points given up to the Indianapolis Colts. Focus instead, on the fact that the Texans allowed just nine points to Indy for the last three quarters of the game. They haven’t really had a bad game yet this year from start to finish aside from that duel against the New York Giants, and we have a tough time believing that Pittsburgh is going to get into the 20s in this one, especially if LB Jadeveon Clowney is set to come back to the lineup as he and the team expect him to.

The Texans offense will just have to take care of the football to be able to win games like these against middling teams. It’s not a given to think that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t turn the ball over, but if he doesn’t, Houston should eke out a road win.



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2. Why the STEELERS will cover the spread: You’ve got to have the feeling that this is a “man up” game for the Steelers. They just didn’t play well at all in last week’s romp on the road against the Cleveland Browns, and now that they have been woken up, they could be in for a dominating game. The Pittsburgh defense isn’t the best, but it is going against a bad quarterback in Fitzpatrick, and that could end up making all the difference in the world.



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3. Total Talk: Houston might be 3-2 for ‘over’ bettors in its last five games, but there isn’t a game in that mix where you look at what the offense has done and think that that should be the case. The Texans are 5-0 towards the ‘under’ in their last five following an ATS loss. Pittsburgh has kept seven straight games played in October ‘under’ the ‘total’, including both of the games played in the last two weeks.

4. Betting Trends for TEXANS/STEELERS:
Monday Night Football has certainly not been kind to Texans bettors. They have failed to cover six in a row on MNF, and they are going against a team which they have only beaten or covered against once since their inaugural season in 2002. The Steelers have generally shown resiliency after having bad games, as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four after allowing at least 30 points in the prior game.

This could be one where Pittsburgh comes to play, but if it is going to have to cover this one, it is going to have to do so with its defense. It’ll be a close call.



TEXANS – STEELERS 2014 MNF Score Prediction:

Steelers 17 – Texans 13






49ers vs. Broncos SNF Week 7 Odds & Picks

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NFL history very well could be made on Sunday Night Football, as the Denver Broncos are going to host the San Francisco 49ers in a battle of teams who have perennially been fantastic of late. Denver is normally favored by double-digits at home, especially in primetime games, but it is only laying a TD thanks to the fact that the Niners are so darn strong. The ‘total’ of 49.5 is one of the highest of the week.


SF 49ERS – BRONCOS 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT WEEK 7 SPREAD:

OPEN: BRONCOS -7.5 | CURRENT: BRONCOS -7 | O/U: 49


1. Why the SF 49ERS will cover the spread: You almost get the feeling that the more San Francisco has going against it, the better off that it plays. The team was facing the ultimate difficult time last year in the NFC Championship Game against the Seattle Seahawks, and that game could have ultimately been won. Three straight weeks, San Fran was on the ropes in games, and in three straight weeks, it has come back to win and cover as relatively short favorites. We’ve got a spread to work with now, and the 49ers generally make every point count.



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2. Why the BRONCOS will cover the spread: The 49ers have had all sorts of problems trying to run the ball of late, and if G Mike Iupati isn’t back in this one, it isn’t going to be any easier to do. On top of that, it just feels like it’s going to be a really special night for QB Peyton Manning. He’s the best quarterback in the league, and he should throw for at least three TDs in this one.

If he does that, he’ll break the all-time record for touchdown passes in a career, breaking the record of QB Brett Favre at 508. Manning rarely loses games like this in the spotlight, and with a defense which has been dominating up front of late, it’s got the feeling of a really special night in the Rockies.



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3. Total Talk: The ‘over’ is 10-2 in Denver’s last 12 home games against teams with winning records, as the club just tends to really come forward with something special offensively when its back is up against the wall against good defensive teams. However, the 49ers are 4-0 in their last four for ‘under’ bettors against teams with winning records overall, proof that they are usually able to slow down some of the best offenses that are out there.

4. Betting Trends for 49ERS/BRONCOS: Quietly, Denver is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 games played on natural grass, but it is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played here at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The 49ers are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games overall, including covering three in a row to reach that stout mark. More impressively, San Francisco is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road, and it is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games against teams with winning records.


SF 49ERS – BRONCOS 2014 SNF Score Prediction:

Broncos 31 – 49ers 27






College Football Upset Picks: KSU over Oklahoma?

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We’re into the nitty-gritty of the season in college football betting action, and we’re starting to get a bit of a feeling for who all of these teams really are. Join us for our teams that are on upset alert for Week 8 College Football Picks of the campaign.

UPSET #1: Kansas State (+240 ML) @ Oklahoma Sooners

The Wildcats were bigger dogs than this two years ago when they came to Norman and pulled off the upset, and we think that these Sooners are a lot more fragile right now than those Sooners were at that point in the season in 2012. The Wildcats would be a Top 5 team in the land if not for the fact that they were held down by a good Auburn Tigers team to 14 points early in the season. This defense though, is legit for KSU.

This is a lot of points to be giving a Head Coach Bill Snyder team, and any time we have a shot to take the Wildcats at anything better than 2 to 1, we at least have to consider taking the chance. These two teams are a lot closer than you probably think in terms of raw talent, and the little guys from the “Little Apple” could pull off an upset that is anything but little.


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UPSET #2: Arizona State (+140 ML) vs. Stanford Cardinal 

Stanford’s offense just flat out stinks. Sure, the Cardinal could win this one by putting together a heck of a defensive effort, but in this day and age, we just don’t trust teams like this one, especially on the road, and definitely when you’re talking about a team that has all of the offensive weapons that the Sun Devils do. Remember that this ASU team had the guns, even without QB Taylor Kelly, to beat the USC Trojans, albeit on a Hail Mary at the end of the game.

However, just to be in that position was a heck of an accomplishment, and it is one that we have not overlooked. The Cardinal could be in a lot of trouble here.


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UPSET #3: Washington Huskies (+800 ML) @ Oregon Ducks

A few weeks ago, the Ducks were knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens here at Autzen Stadium when they were beaten by the Arizona Wildcats. Now, they’re in a relatively similar spot against the Huskies. This is the type of team that really could frustrate the heck out of Oregon. The Huskies have a really good defensive line that can get after the passer, and we all know by now that the Ducks have tremendous problems along their offensive line.

U-Dub doesn’t turn the ball over, and it doesn’t shoot itself in the foot all that often. That’s the recipe for a game to stay close all the way until the end. If that’s the case, the Huskies could be very live dogs, even on the road at night at Autzen Stadium, which is notoriously one of the toughest places to go play in the Pac-12.




NFL Upset Picks Week 7: Giants over Cowboys?

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There are a few big underdogs every week who seem to bark in the NFL, and Week 7 NFL Picks certainly won’t be an exception. There will be a few pups barking in October that may look like ridiculous steals by the end of the year, and we’re going to highlight a few of those on the Week 7 NFL odds.
 

Cincinnati Bengals (+145) @ Indianapolis Colts – We’ve got a feeling in this one for sure. The Bengals were dominating last year when these two teams met at Paul Brown Stadium, though their defense was shoddy at times because it didn’t get enough pressure on QB Andrew Luck. Now with DT Geno Atkins back in the fold, we think there is going to be a lot of pressure now on the Indianapolis offensive line to get things figured out. Cincinnati’s defensive numbers aren’t all that impressive this season, but a lot of what it has been going against has been these short little one-step drops and throws as well as max protection plays.

The Colts are going to send out all five of their eligible receivers on virtually every passing play, and Luck generally will want to take five steps and step up in the pocket if need be. If he can’t do that, it’ll be a long day for the hosts.


All Week 7 Expert Picks | Odds To Win 2015 Super Bowl



Carolina Panthers (+270) @ Green Bay Packers – We’re just looking at the value of this play. The Panthers are coming off of a tie on the road against the aforementioned Bengals, and that was a game that could have been a heck of a lot worse. QB Cam Newton proved why he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Green Bay, by all rights, should have been beaten last week by the Miami Dolphins on the road.

Sure, it’s much different playing against this team at Lambeau Field, but there’s no way that this Carolina team, which is still one of the best in the NFL in our opinion, should be more than +200 anywhere against anyone in the league.


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New York Giants (+210) @ Dallas Cowboys – Doesn’t this just feel like the game where QB Tony Romo comes crashing back to earth? The Cowboys are flying high right now off of their big win in Seattle, while the Giants are in the dumps after getting demolished by the Philadelphia Eagles. So certainly, Dallas, which has looked the part of the best team in the league this year, could end up dominating once again.

QB Eli Manning though, has a good history of playing against these Cowboys, especially here in Arlington, and he and his West Coast offense could end up frustrating the ‘Boys. It’s all about the percentages for sure in this one, and we think this is a game which is a heck of a lot closer to a tossup than one that Dallas would win nearly 70 percent of the time.






49ers-Rams MNF Betting Preview, Expert Picks & Score Prediction

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If the San Francisco 49ers are going to get back to the playoffs this season, they have to figure out how to win divisional games like these. However, the oddsmakers are giving the St. Louis Rams a fighting chance, lining them at just +3 on the NFL betting lines for the first ever Monday Night Football game for QB Austin Davis. The ‘total’ for this one is set at 43.5 in spite of the fact that these are two of the best defenses in the league going at one another.


49ERS – RAMS 2014 MONDAY NIGHT WEEK 6 LINE:

OPEN: 49ERS -3.5 | CURRENT: 49ERS -3 | O/U: 43.5


1. Why the SF 49ERS will cover the spread: The Niners have a history of not punting games like these, and it seems as though they are getting more and more focused on the goal with every passing bit of controversy that goes on involving Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. San Fran has gone on 12 scoring drives in its last two games, and that’s proof that it is on the verge of something really special. However, the fact that nine of those 12 scoring drives ended in field goals was depressing, to say the least.

QB Colin Kaepernick has to do a better job of converting field goal drives into touchdown drives more often, and when that starts to happen, look out. This could once again be one of the best teams in the NFL.



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2. Why the STL RAMS will cover the spread: The Rams really do have some talent here at the quarterback position. Davis may or may not be the answer in the long run, but we think that what he did last week against the Eagles will be a microcosm of his season. He’ll have some ups (375 yards, 3 TDs), and some downs (2 fumbles, one of which was returned for a touchdown, and one which was nearly returned for a touchdown).

We also know that at some point, the defensive line is really going to start shining for the Rams. They have just one sack in four games after having a fantastic season last year. Can they pick it up this week? The Niners have allowed 13 sacks on the season, so there is some potential for sure.



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3. Total Talk: History suggests that these games are going to be lower scoring. In fact, this is the first time that the ‘total’ has been higher than 42.5 in a game in this series since 2008. That said, three of the last five and five of the last eight have gone ‘over’, though very few of those games really exceeded that number by any significant margin.



4. Betting Trends for 49ERS/RAMS: The 49ers swept the season series last year both SU and ATS, and they have dominated on Monday Night Football, going 8-1 ATS in their last nine visits to the premier viewing slot in the football hierarchy. However, the Rams are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games played here at the Edward Jones Dome when going against teams with winning records.



49ERS – RAMS 2014 MNF Score Prediction:

Rams 20 – 49ers 17






Giants vs. Eagles SNF Preview, Expert Picks, Score Prediction

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The NFC East is all of a sudden shaping up to be one of the best divisions in the game. That makes this game between the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles all the more important, as the winner will likely end up being in first place in the division when it’s all said and done with. The men from the City of Brotherly Love are 2.5-point favorites, while the ‘total’ for Sunday Night Football is one of the higher numbers we’ve seen all season at 50.


EAGLES – GIANTS 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT WEEK 6 LINE:

OPEN: EAGLES -2.5 | CURRENT: EAGLES -2.5 | O/U: 50


1. Why the NY GIANTS will cover the spread: At some point, luck has to run out for the Eagles. They’ve recovered five fumbles in five games this year, and they have scored seven TDs on defense and special teams. That’s just an insane number for an entire season, let alone just for a third of the campaign. On top of that, the Giants have really started to get this West Coast offense moving.

QB Eli Manning has posted a QB rating of at least 100 in three straight games, and he is on a really hot streak. WR Odell Beckham Jr. is the real deal, and he could be the difference maker of this offense now that he has recovered from his hamstring injury.



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2. Why the EAGLES will cover the spread: With an offensive line that is improving game by game, we know that it is only a matter of time until RB LeSean McCoy ends up with a heavier workload and more success. McCoy will eventually start to get going at some point, and if that turns out to be the case, this could be a long day for this defense. For as lucky as the Eagles have been scoring defensively and on special teams, their secondary has been beaten up for little reason.

Sure, no quarterback has posted lower than an 80 quarterback rating against this unit this year, but because of the non-offensive scores, the defense has been on the field a ton, and teams have been chasing games. The Eagles are better defensively than they have shown.



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3. Total Talk: Two of the last three games in this series have flown past the ‘total’, and the one that didn’t was the meeting these two teams had last year in the City of Brotherly Love. The Eagles were held without an offensive point because QB Matt Barkley was stuck playing most of the game. Take that away though, and history suggests that this could be a high scoring game.

4. Betting Trends for EAGLES/GIANTS: The Eagles have owned this series of late from a betting standpoint. Take out that game where QB Michael Vick got hurt (while Nick Foles was already nursing an injury), and the Eagles are 9-2 SU and ATS in the 11 games in this series since the end of the 2011 season. It should also be noted that the Giants have been killed in their last three games against teams which won at least 10 games a season ago.



EAGLES – GIANTS 2014 SNF Score Prediction:

Eagles 24 – Giants 19






Bengals-Patriots Point Spread Preview, Expert Picks & Score Prediction

patriots-bengals-picks-2014

There’s only one undefeated team left standing in the AFC, and of all of the teams that could still be unbeaten, the Cincinnati Bengals wouldn’t have been our first guess. They’re short 1.5-point favorites on the road on Sunday Night Football though, as they take on QB Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The ‘total’ has opened at 47 for this Sunday night soiree at Gillette Stadium.


BENGALS – PATRIOTS SUNDAY NIGHT WEEK 5 LINE:

OPEN: BENGALS PK | CURRENT: BENGALS -1 | O/U: 46


1. Why the BENGALS will cover the spread: This defense is no joke whatsoever, and the fact that it is coming off of a bye is only going to help men like DT Geno Atkins who could use some extra recovery time. The New England offense, save for the first half of the first game of the season, has really been relatively woeful, and that could end up being real bad news for one of the favorites in the AFC.

On top of that though, the Bengals are healthy again. WR AJ Green should be fine to play off of the bye week, and that gives QB Andy Dalton all the weapons in the world that he needs to move the ball up and down the field.



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2. Why the PATRIOTS will cover the spread: The Patriots aren’t insinuated to be the better of these two teams, but we aren’t so sure that still isn’t the case. New England has only played four games this year, and already, most are writing it off as a team that might win the AFC East but is nowhere near equipped to challenge for a Super Bowl title. We respectfully still disagree. Brady is still Brady, and eventually, this offense is going to get into some sort of rhythm again.

There was every reason in the world to struggle last Monday against the Kansas City Chiefs, but when you put a chip on the Patriots’ shoulders and give them home field advantage in a primetime game, you’re going to find some success.



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3. Total Talk: ‘Under’ is the word so far this year for Cincinnati. The Bengals have played all three of their games ‘under’ the ‘total’, while the Pats are level at two games on each side of the number. Last year when these two teams played, there were only a grand total of 589 yards and 19 points in a 13-6 win for the Bengals. That game easily stayed ‘under’, but four of the previous five between these teams had exceeded the ‘total’.

4. Betting Trends for Bengals/Patriots: The Bengals have covered 20 of their last 29 games overall, and Head Coach Marvin Lewis has to be thrilled with that stat. That said, they aren’t all that hot on the road like they were at Paul Brown Stadium, and they have a tendency to be a losing team away from the Queen City. New England has covered four straight home games against teams with winning road records, and the time is here for the Pats to get back on the horse and take down a big victory.


BENGALS – PATRIOTS 2014 SNF Score Prediction:

Patriots 28 – Bengals 17






Seahawks-Redskins MNF Point Spread Preview & Score Prediction

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The Washington Redskins put forth one of the most abysmal performances of the season last week when they were trashed 45-14 by the New York Giants. That’s not even the worst news. The really bad news? The defending champion, Seattle Seahawks are about set to pay a visit to FedEx Field. The oddsmakers have reacted, and they have made them 7.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds, while the ‘total’ has been set at 45.5.


SEAHAWKS – REDSKINS MONDAY NIGHT WEEK 5 LINE:

OPEN: SEAHAWKS -7 | CURRENT: SEAHAWKS -7.5 | O/U: 45.5


1. Why the SEAHAWKS will cover the spread: Head Coach Pete Carroll and his defense have to be laughing right now at what they see out of the Redskins. Their offensive line is perilously thin, their receiving corps outside of WR DeSean Jackson is laughable, and QB Kirk Cousins is coming off of a game in which he turned the ball over five times against a team that just flat out isn’t all that great defensively.

If Seattle can hold onto the football and not turn it over, there’s no reason not to think that this won’t be an easy one for the visitors even though they have to fly across the country for this one.



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2. Why the REDSKINS will cover the spread: It’s a lot of points. That’s not all that we can say for the Redskins, but that’s the best part about what we can say for them. Cousins absolutely cannot play as badly as he did last week against the Giants, and just that alone should swing at least two or three touchdowns. On top of that, this isn’t the same Washington team that we saw take the field against the G-Men.

TE Jordan Reed will be back, and both OT Trent Williams and TE Niles Paul, both of which left that game early against New York, should be back in the lineup. Give Cousins a little more protection and a few more big targets to throw the ball to, and we might have ourselves a different story on our hands than the one that most figure will be told on Monday Night Football.



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3. Total Talk: You think of Seattle as a team which plays all these games into the 30s or so, but that just hasn’t been the case of late. The offense has scored at least 21 in seven straight games dating back to the end of last season, and the team has played three out of four ‘overs’ as a result.

All four games have gotten to at least 46 points, and that would be enough to beat the number in this one. The ‘Skins have played two straight ‘over’ contests after playing two ‘unders’ to start off the year.

4. Betting Trends for Seahawks/Redskins: The Seahawks have failed to cover each of their last two games when they have played on the road off of their bye week. Washington though, only went 1-6 SU and ATS last season against playoff teams, and we have to assume that the Seahawks are once again going to be headed back to the postseason in 2014.


SEAHAWKS – REDSKINS 2014 MNF Score Prediction:

Seahawks 30 – Redskins 10






Patriots vs. Chiefs MNF Point Spread Preview & Score Prediction

patriots-chiefs-mnf-picks

After busting out of their slump last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to look to take out the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football in Week 4. The oddsmakers have installed Head Coach Bill Belichick and the Pats at -3.5 on the road, while the ‘total’ from Arrowhead Stadium comes in at 45.


KC CHIEFS – PATRIOTS MONDAY NIGHT WEEK 4 LINE:

OPEN: PATRIOTS -4 | CURRENT: PATRIOTS -2.5 | O/U: 46


1. Why the CHIEFS will cover the spread: This is sort of a matter of fact statement, but the Patriots just don’t look that great to us right now. They are a good team for sure, and they really should win the AFC East going away this year, but they don’t look as dominating as they had looked in the past or as dominating as many expected them to look this year.

Kansas City is at home, and it is getting more than a field goal, which sort of insinuates that on a neutral field, the Pats would be laying a full touchdown. Is that really an accurate statement against a team that really should have been in the Divisional Round of the playoffs a year ago?


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2. Why the PATRIOTS will cover the spread: It used to be you’d just be able to say that it’s Tom Brady on Monday Night Football, and that would be enough justification to place a bet on the Patriots. That just isn’t the case any longer, as Brady only has a quarterback rating so far this year of 82.9, and he is leading an offense that is accounting for just 301.3 yards and 22.0 points per game so far this year.

However, what we have learned about the Patriots this year is that they can win games with their defense. They are allowing just 272.7 yards per game on the season, and that combined with the fact that KC’s best weapon, Jamaal Charles is still dinged up and could be limited, if he plays at all, is what makes New England a team you can bet on in Week 4.


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3. Total Talk: Both of these offenses are struggling, so it’s easy to point the finger at the ‘under’ on MNF. Both of these clubs have played two of their three games ‘under’ the ‘total’ this year, though we think it’s more notable to look at the Chiefs and their defense at home more than anything else. They played their first five home games ‘under’ the number a year ago, and a Week 1 home game against the Tennessee Titans played out the same way.



4. Betting Trends for Chiefs/Patriots: The Chiefs have failed to cover six straight games at home, but New England is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games played on the road. The Patriots might be a 5-1 ATS team in their last six Monday Night Football games, but that doesn’t mean they are viable in this one on the road in one of more raucous environments that the NFL has to offer.


KC Chiefs – Patriots 2014 MNF Score Prediction:

Chiefs 23 – Patriots 20






Cowboys vs. Saints Betting Line, Spread Picks, Score Prediction 2014

saints-cowboys-2014-prediction
The New Orleans Saints and the Dallas Cowboys will be back in action in Week 4, as the two do battle it what could be one of the higher scoring games of the week. The ‘total’ is understandably high at 53, while the Saints are favored by a field goal on the road.

SAINTS – COWBOYS 2014 WEEK 4 SNF LINE:
OPEN: SAINTS -3 | CURRENT: SAINTS -3 | O/U: 53



1. Why the COWBOYS will cover the spread: The Saints might rank 9th in the NFL against the run this year at 101.3 yards per game allowed, but they haven’t run across a running back like RB DeMarco Murray quite yet. On top of that, we haven’t really seen New Orleans play against an elite quarterback either. For all of his warts, QB Tony Romo is a better quarterback than either Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, or Brian Hoyer, and the one time the Saints went on the road and played against a solid quarterback, they gave up 37 points to the Atlanta Falcons.

Granted, Romo is going to have to figure out how to hold onto the football to win this one, something that we just aren’t all that confident in his ability of doing, but if he does, the Cowboys could easily cover this one.



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2. Why the SAINTS will cover the spread: We have to think that the New Orleans offense is going to get this figured out at some point, right? QB Drew Brees has had a history of really beating the snot out of the Cowboys, but he just doesn’t seem to be clicking on all cylinders yet. Sure, he has five TDs in three games, and he is completing near 71% of his passes, but it just doesn’t feel like he’s being Drew Brees.

That said, the Cowboys just made Austin Davis look like Joe Montana. If Davis and a ragtag group of receivers who really aren’t all that good can figure out how to torch this defense, we can only imagine what Brees and TE Jimmy Graham are going to manage to do.


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3. Total Talk: When these two teams played against each other last year, the Cowboys were destroyed 49-17 in the Bayou, and that’s been par for the course in this series. Each of the last three have easily gone past the number. That said, the Saints have played two of their three games to 50 points or fewer this year, while Dallas has played two of its three games to 45 points or fewer. Asking this one to get into the mid-50s is going to be a really tough proposition.


4. Betting Trends for Cowboys/Saints: You can’t talk about the Saints in this one without mentioning how bad they have been on the road. They’re already 0-2 SU and ATS this year away from home, and they were favored in both games. In fact, they have played six games over the course of the last two seasons on the road in which they were favorites; they are 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in those games.


DALLAS COWBOYS vs. NEW ORLEANS SUNDAY NIGHT PREDICTION:

Saints 28 – Cowboys 27






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