NFL Lines Movement and Public Betting Report for Week 5
Denver at Baltimore
Opening line: Baltimore -7, 39
Current line: Baltimore -7, 38.5
The Sharps have not forced any significant movement this week with the public only slightly favoring the Ravens. It is a match-up that feature the league’s leading defense in yards allowed going up against the league’s most prolific pass offense. Look for UNDER action to force the line further down as we getting closer to kick-off as the Raven D looks to win out.
Jacksonville at Buffalo
Opening line: Buffalo -1,40.5
Current line: Jacksonville -1, 41
Jacksonville should be riding high after their victory last week while Buffalo has looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. The line shifted early after Buffalo was the announced favorite, since then 61% of public likes JAX for the victory.
Kansas City at Indianapolis
Opening line: Indianapolis -8, 44
Current line: Indianapolis -7,45
The game has crossed below the crucial 7.5 line with lots of late money heading toward Kansas City pushing the line down. Do not expect the public to buy into Kansas City at anything under -7, with a 1-9 record against the Colts over their last 10 and 0-4 at Indianapolis. 54% of the public is still likes the Colts with 72% taking the OVER.
St Louis at Detroit
Opening line: Detroit -3, 43
Current line: Detroit -3, 42.5
These are not last year’s Rams. Going from 1-15 to already winning 2 games and tied for the NFC West lead, Sam Bradford has turned the franchise around. Just do not expect to buy St. Louis on the road, 54% of the public is still leaning Detroit at home with 68% liking the OVER. In 3 games as a starter, Shaun Hill has lead Detroit to the league’s sixth best offense averaging over 400 yards per game.
Atlanta at Cleveland
Opening line: Atlanta -3, 41
Current line: Atlanta -3, 41.5
Allowing just 15 points per game, the Falcons have fast become one of the league’s best defenses. Cleveland still gets no respect from the betting public as their 1-3 record with all 3 losses by a total of 12 points. Jake Delhomme could return this week for Cleveland, but that has done little to move the line or the betting public, 74% like Atlanta to cover the 3 with the OVER taking 56% of the action.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati
Opening line: Cincinnati -7, 38
Current line: Cincinnati-6.5, 38
The public is backing Cincinnati with 68% liking the cover even with Tampa Bay coming off their early season bye. Look for the points to climb closer to kick-off as Cincinnati may be hitting their offensive strides as Carson Palmer threw for 371 yards last week in defeat. The public is currently 50-50 on the total.
Chicago at Carolina
Opening line: Chicago -3, 36
Current line: Carolina -1, 33.5
Jay Cutler is out! The line has dramatically shifted following Cutler’s inability to return from a concussion. The Bears are having all kinds of protection issues, surrendering 10 sacks last game and injuring two quarterbacks while the Panthers…continue to go with Jimmy Clausen. The public still likes the dog and the Bears defense with 57% on the Bears.
Green Bay at Washington
Opening line: Green Bay-3, 44
Current line: Green Bay -2.5, 44
The public is betting heavily on the arm of Rodgers with 71% taking the Packers at -2.5 and the OVER. Aaron Rodgers is coming on his fewest pass attempts of his career and going up against the league’s second worst pass defense. The line has actually moved down heading into Sunday’s game….
New York Giants at Houston
Opening line: Houston -3, 47.5
Current line: Houston -3, 47.5
The line has seen no movement this week. Betters like Houston at home with 76% taking the -3 despite Schaub having to deal with a patch-work receiving cast. Look for Eli to put up big numbers going up against the league’s worst pass defense.
New Orleans at Arizona
Opening line: New Orleans -6.5, 46.5
Current line: New Orleans -7, 45
The Saints are clearly the better team and public has little doubt the Saints will cover the 7 on the road. The sharps drew the line down early on the announcement of Max Hall as the starter, but square money has brought 67% of the public back on the over.
San Diego at Oakland
Opening line: San Diego -5.5, 44.5
Current line: San Diego -6, 45
Coming off one of the teams most dominating performances in all of franchise history, the public likes the Chargers to continue the trend in Oakland. 70% of the public is taking the spread as San Diego has won 13 in a row against Oakland with an average margin of victory of 14.4.
Tennessee at Dallas
Opening line: Dallas -6.5, 42
Current line: Dallas -7, 41.5
Winners of their last 5 coming off a bye, the public likes Dallas to make it 6 with 56% taking the -7. The public is also betting big on the OVER, 65% like plenty of points. It seems the spread and the points are running counter to each other for this game, an OVER plays on Chris Johnson running for over a 100 yard which has translated into a win each time this season for Tennessee. However, a strong performance by Johnson negates a potential Dallas win or cover.
Philadelphia at San Francisco
Opening line: San Francisco-3, 38
Current line: San Francisco -3.5, 38
The absence of Vick as the starting quarterback put the 0-4 49ers as favorites at home with 64% of the public backing the line. The last prime-time game the 49ers played in was week 2 against New Orleans; it was that game that gave the nation a glimpse at the 49er potential. 2 losses later and their 0-4…the two quarterbacks, Kolb and Smith will most likely be leading inept offenses with a defensive struggle by default.
Minnesota at New York Jets
Opening line: New York Jets -4.5, 37.5
Current line: New York Jets-4, 39
The return of Moss to the Vikings…I expect the public to way in huge with a dramatic line shift as kick-off approaches. The OVER has already increased in the last 12 hours with sharps pushing the line up and 65% of the public backing the new Minnesota offense.