Old NFC North rivals will duke it out on Sunday Night Football this week, as the Chicago Bears take on the Green Bay Packers. The Pack are giving 7.5 in what could be a cold and blustery day at Lambeau Field. The ‘total’ opened up this week at a relatively high 52.5.
BEARS – PACKERS 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT WEEK 10 SPREAD:
1. Why the BEARS will cover the spread: A week off might be just what the doctor ordered for the Bears. They aren’t nearly as bad as 3-5 makes it sound like they are, and they still have five home games coming after this one is said and done with. The schedule has been absolutely brutal, so the numbers on both sides of the ball are going to be shoddy.
WR Alshon Jeffrey and WR Brandon Marshall still create ridiculous matchup problems for anyone whom they face, and Green Bay’s defense isn’t exactly lights out. RB Matt Forte could end up with over 1,000 yards both as a rusher and a receiver this year, and he has had a great history playing against the Packers, too.
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2. Why the PACKERS will cover the spread: Assuming that QB Aaron Rodgers is healthy, this passing attack is as good as it gets. WR Jordy Nelson is able to really stretch the field, and WR Randall Cobb has scored a touchdown in five straight games. Sure, the rushing attack hasn’t been great this year, but when you’ve got Rodgers in the saddle, you don’t need all that much of a ground game.
Yes, we’re worried about the 153.4 rushing yards per game that the Packers are allowing, but Forte can only do so much damage on the ground. This feels like a game where Rodgers can throw for 400 yards, and if he does, it could be an easy game for the Pack.
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3. Total Talk: Ever since Rodgers told Green Bay fans “R-E-L-A-X,” the ‘over’ has cashed in five straight Packers games. Now, they get to play at home once again in this one, and they are 3-0 for ‘over’ backers in those games this season. Chicago has played five of its past seven past the number as well. The first game this season resulted in 55 points and an easy ‘over’ for these clubs.
4. Betting Trends for BEARS/PACKERS: Chicago has just one SU victory in this series dating back to the start of the 2010 season. The Bears are only 1-7 ATS in those eight games. Green Bay has won all three of its games played at Lambeau Field this year, and it is 2-0-1 ATS. The Packers have scored a total of 71 points in their last two games against the Bears, but the Bears haven’t eclipsed 28 points in a game in this series since 2004.
We aren’t all that sure that the Bears are going to be able to hold this game inside the number even if they do score 28 points, though we think they’ll end up short of that figure when it’s said and done with anyway.
Packers 34 – Bears 24