BetUs.com has released odds on who will miss the playoffs in the AFC for 2009. The heavy favorite to not make the post season is the Oakland Raiders listed at -700. You can’t really argue with the odds makers’ decision to post this particular number as the Raiders are a complete mess. They don’t have a quarterback for one thing. JaMarcus Russell has been god awful since being the number one overall pick a few years back and Jeff Garcia isn’t the answer either as his best years are behind him. The offensive line is also a major weakness which will make it difficult for Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas to run the ball effectively and the defense isn’t great either. The Oakland Raiders are a lock to not make the playoffs, that’s for certain.
The other teams rounding out the bottom of the list are the Cleveland Browns (-600), Cincinnati Bengals (-450), and the Kansas City Chiefs (-450). The Cleveland Browns much like the Raiders aren’t sold on their quarterback situation as well. As the old adage goes if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have one. Derek Anderson’s production dropped dramatically from his 2007 numbers and Brady Quinn hasn’t proved he can cut it at the pro level. Jamal Lewis is showing major signs of slowing down so points will be hard to come by for the Browns. When you factor in the division they play in that includes Pittsburgh and Baltimore, I can’t see this team being any threat to make the playoffs.
The one bottom team I would stay away from is the Kansas City Chiefs. I know they have been very poor in recent years but they have made some key moves in the off-season with their roster and Scott Pioli is a genius. Matt Cassell will immediately improve this team and Dwayne Bowe is a very good receiving threat for the new Chiefs QB. They also improved their defense through the draft. I do not think this is a playoff team but I would not risk the juice of -450 on this team to miss the playoffs as we all know anything could happen in the NFL.
One value pick that I would consider making is betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars to miss the playoffs at -225. David Garrard struggled mightily last year and needs to improve immensely for this team to be any sort of threat in the AFC South. They did make some improvements in the off-season and Maurice Jones Drew is an absolute stud but given the fact that they are in the same division as the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans, I don’t see them making a run at the post-season.