A huge week of NFL betting action awaits in Week 13, but the biggest of the bunch might be the duel between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs. Eight teams are 7-4 or better in the AFC and four others are within two games of that as we head towards the final quarter of the campaign. Denver is a slight one-point favorite on the road, while the ‘total’ at Arrowhead Stadium for Sunday Night Football is 49.5.
BRONCOS – CHIEFS 2014 WEEK 13 LINE:
OPEN: CHIEFS -1 | CURRENT: BRONCOS -2 | O/U: 49.5
1. Why the CHIEFS will cover the spread: There are a number of reasons why the Chiefs could end up covering this game at home. They have already beaten the Seattle Seahawks here at Arrowhead, and there is little reason to think that Denver has a better chance than the defending champs. Denver has failed to cover two straight games, and it hasn’t covered against a team which has any chance to make the playoffs since October 23rd against the San Diego Chargers. The team hasn’t won a game on the road against a potential postseason team all year.
RB Jamaal Charles is running as hard as any back in the league right now, and he only had two carries for four yards the last time these two teams met in Week 2. Even with that game being played in Denver, the Chiefs still only lost by a touchdown, and they had a chance to win the game at the end. Remember as well that TE Julius Thomas could be out of this duel as well, which will only further hurt the Broncos offensively.
2. Why the BRONCOS will cover the spread: There is clearly something wrong with the Broncos right now offensively. Maybe it’s the fact that RB C.J. Anderson just isn’t as talented of a back as RB Montee Ball or RB Ronnie Hillman, and maybe it’s because teams are starting to catch on to what QB Peyton Manning is doing. That said, these are the types of games in which Manning can take over and throw for five touchdowns.
3. Total Talk: Earlier this season when these two teams met in Denver, the game didn’t come anywhere near the number. The ‘under’ is 6-1-1 in the last eight games in this series dating back to the middle of the 2010 season. The ‘over’ is 7-1 in Denver’s last eight games, though. The Chiefs have played two straight ‘over’ games after playing five straight ‘under’ performances dating back to October 5th.
4. Betting Trends for Broncos/Chiefs: The Chiefs haven’t won a game in this series since New Year’s Day 2012, thus they haven’t beaten Manning since his move to the Rockies. KC did cover the spread when these two teams met in Week 2, but it is still just 3-6 ATS in the last nine. The Chiefs are one of the best ATS teams this year at 8-3, and they have covered eight of their last 10 since failing miserably in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans.
Chiefs 34 – Broncos 28