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Odds To Make or Miss The NFL Playoffs in 2014

nfl-odds-to-make-playoffs-2014-2015

Every team in the NFL is starting off this season with the same goal: They all want to make the playoffs. It’s not as easy of a task as it seems, as the biggest favorite to get in the playoffs is only -450, while the biggest underdog to get into the postseason is +1200. Check out the best NFL betting lines we see on the board about who can and cannot get into the second season.

Seahawks To Make the Playoffs (-300) – It’s a chalky play, but we just don’t see how the Seahawks won’t defend their title in the playoffs this year, even with the rough and tumble NFC West schedule. They are still virtually unbeatable at CenturyLink Field, and even if you think that two foes will go in front of the “12th Man” and beat Seattle this season, that still leaves the team needing just a 4-4 record on the road to get the job done in all likelihood. There is not one piece to the puzzle that can be lost to make this team go into the tank, and though the defense isn’t going to be quite as dominating as it was last season, the Seahawks are still the best team in the NFL.

Bears To Make the Playoffs (+220) – We’re not really all that sure why there is such a level of pessimism around the Bears. Head Coach Marc Trestman is clearly an offensive genius, and he should have QB Jay Cutler healthy for the whole year. WR Alshon Jeffrey is rounding into one of the best receivers in the league, and he and WR Brandon Marshall really make this team formidable. The defense isn’t nearly as good as it has been, but in the NFC North, you need to be able to shoot it out with teams, and now, the Bears can. They’ve also improved a bit defensively.

Texans To Not Make the Playoffs (-370) – It’s almost a bit laughable just how bad the Texans were last season, and this year won’t be any better unless QB Tom Savage turns out to be the next great find like QB Russell Wilson. This defense has the makings of one which can be great up front, but the secondary is still one of the worst in the league as we see it. On top of that, WR Andre Johnson is disgruntled, and the team has a whole new staff that it is trying to break in. The Texans will win four or five more games this year than they did last season, but even in the lousy AFC South, this isn’t a playoff team.

Browns To Make the Playoffs (+700) – Oh, why not! Even without WR Josh Gordon, the Browns got appreciably better on both sides of the ball this offseason. The AFC North isn’t a division which scares us, as all three of the teams have gone in the wrong direction as we see it. Cleveland’s playing a last place schedule again, and we all know that it is only a matter of time until Johnny Football gets his time in the saddle. If the guy really is just a pure winner as some suggest, the Browns may be on their way to the playoffs this year.

Jaguars To Make the Playoffs (+1200) – Finish laughing first, then come back and read these next 100 words. The Jags are significantly better this year than they were last season, if for no other reason, they added basically an entirely new defensive line, one of which will look a lot more like the group that Head Coach Gus Bradley coached when he was in Seattle. The offense went ahead and regrouped at the wide receiver position through the NFL Draft, and last year’s top pick, LT Luke Joeckel, will play in his first regular season game this year. It’s like Jacksonville had four picks in the first 40 this year, and though yes, one of those was spent on QB

Who is Playoff Bound in 2014?

Broncos – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -500
No +375

Seahawks – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -300
No +235

49ers – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -250
No +200

Patriots – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -450
No +325

Packers – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -225
No +180

Saints – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -195
No +160

Bears – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +150
No -185

Colts – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -200
No +165

Eagles – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes -140
No +110

Bengals – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +120
No -150

Steelers – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +135
No -165

Ravens – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +180
No -225

Panthers – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +235
No -300

Lions – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +200
No -250

Giants – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +220
No -285

Cowboys – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +260
No -340

Cardinals – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +325
No -450

Chiefs – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +280
No -360

Chargers – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +260
No -340

Rams – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +375
No -500

Falcons – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +240
No -320

Redskins – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +290
No -380

Texans – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +235
No -300

Dolphins – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +350
No -475

Browns – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +550
No -800

Jets – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +325
No -450

Bills – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +400
No -550

Buccaneers – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +450
No -650

Titans – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +300
No -400

Vikings – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +650
No -1000

Raiders – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +1000
No -2000

Jaguars – Will They Make the Playoffs
Yes +1200
No -2500

Odds To Win AFC South Division: Look Out For The Texans!

AFC-south-predictions-2014

Odds to Win the 2014 AFC South:
- Indianapolis Colts -160
- Houston Texans +300
- Tennessee Titans +500
- Jacksonville Jaguars +1400

2014 Over-Under Win Totals:
- Indianapolis Colts Over-Under 9.5 wins
- Houston Texans Over-Under 7.5 wins
- Tennessee Titans Over-Under 7 wins
- Jacksonville Jaguars Over-Under 5 wins

This hasn’t been one a deep division in football over the past few seasons as it’s either been Houston or Indianapolis running away with it. Back in 2012 both of those teams managed to make the post-season, but it was a different story last year as the Colts were the only team from this division to finish above .500. Indy is favored to win this division again, but Tennessee is improved, Jacksonville isn’t going to be an easy push-over like last year, and the Texans are out to prove that last year’s 2-14 season was a fluke and an anomaly. QB concerns will be a part of the season for all of these teams except the Colts, but I do believe at least one of those sub .500 teams from a season ago will get to 8-8 or better in 2014.

Play #1: Houston Texans Over 7.5 wins (-155)

Houston won this division in 2011 and 2012, hosted and won a playoff game in each of those seasons before getting knocked out in the divisional round. They’ve got a new coach, new QB, new hopes for the 2014 season after 2013 was an unmitigated disaster. Houston finished with the worst record in the entire league last year at 2-14 SU but it did earn them the #1 overall draft choice and Jadeveon Clowney. Clowney is an athletic freak and is a huge addition to an already very good defensive line, but it’s all about scoring and the offense for this team this year.

There are some questions concerning WR Andre Johnson and what his status will be once the season starts, but young guys DeAndre Hopkins and DeVier Posey stepped up at times last year and will be asked to do so again this season. Houston still has Arian Foster at RB and he’ll be the workhorse as they’ll be a team that runs the ball first and relies on their defense to close out games.

That’s the style new coach Bill O’Brien used as the head man at Penn State as he;s a guy who will always play to his strengths. When he was the OC at New England he let it fly with Tom Brady and those receivers and at Penn State he concentrated on moving the chains on the ground, taking care of the ball and getting stops. Getting stops is something this defense should be able to do this season with a renewed sense of hope and with stars at every level on defense, Houston will likely be a top-5 defense this season.

When you’ve got a defensive unit like that you’ll win your fair share of games as long as you take care of the ball on offense and don’t turn it over. New QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is an Ivy League graduate who’s been in this league for some time now with varying success. His strengths include reading defenses and setting his unit up with a good play, but the execution can sometimes waiver. He’s the prototypical “game manager” QB and that’s likely all Bill O’Brien will ask him to do. Matt McGloin was a similar guy for the coach at Penn State and although Fitzpatrick isn’t a big name and struggled throwing in windy Buffalo a few seasons back, he’ll be alright. He’s got a stud RB to hand the ball off to when he needs too and big WR’s who can go up and get the ball for him.

Finally, there’s the schedule for the Texans this year and like any team that finished last the previous year it’s rather soft. Gone are the games against the New England’s and Denver’s of the world as they are replaced by contests against Oakland and Buffalo (non-common opponents). Everyone in the AFC South has to go through the AFC North and NFC East which isn’t easy, but Houston will be able to find some wins in there. This finish the season with four of their last six at home and two of their final four against Jacksonville – who will likely have packed it in by then – so the outlook is good for the Texans to be a .500 or better team again. I actually believe they’ve got a great chance to reclaim this division title should Fitzpatrick play within the system and the defense plays as advertised.

To do that eight wins are a must (most likely more) and with redemption the common theme in that Houston locker room this year and a defense that’s ready to hunt down QB’s, over 7.5 wins is one of the stronger win total plays out there this year.



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Odds To Win AFC East Division 2014

AFC-east-predictions-2013

Odds to Win the 2014 AFC East
- New England Patriots -275
- Miami Dolphins +600
- New York Jets +650
- Buffalo Bills +850

AFC East Teams Over-Under Win Totals:
- New England Patriots Over-Under 11 wins
- Miami Dolphins Over-Under 7.5 wins
- New York Jets +650 Over-Under 7 wins
- Buffalo Bills +850 Over-Under 6.5 wins

Based on the odds and the general perception in the AFC East, everyone is already giving this division to the New England Patriots again and for good reason. New England is the best team in this division by far on paper at least and given their history and depth, there shouldn’t be too many ways they come up short in their hunt for another division title (Brady getting injured would be one). But New England’s season win total is set at 10.5 with the ‘over’ listed at -195 and that’s way too much juice to pay for any team to win 11+ contests. I’m not about to grab the ‘under’ at +160 simply because there is value though, but if you have already been leaning that way I would not be opposed. Instead, it’s two other teams from this division that I believe present better betting opportunities.

Play #1: Miami Dolphins Over 8 wins (+130)

New England may be the front-runner again in this division but they will see some better competition this season from their rivals. The best of those three will be this Dolphins team as Miami aims to get back into the playoffs for the first time in a few seasons. It will be important for Miami to come out of the gates strong with a home game against New England to start the season and a trip up to Buffalo in Week 2. Two wins there and the Dolphins will be sitting in first place before they take on the Chiefs and Raiders and could end up being 4-0 SU when they reach their bye week in Week 5.

The schedule gets much tougher for the Dolphins later on with the NFC North and AFC West on tap fro everyone in this division, but with three of their final four at home against very beatable opponents (Baltimore, Minnesota, NYJ), Miami just has to squeak out a .500 mark or so during that tough middle stretch to eclipse this number.

Miami brought in RB Knowshon Moreno to add depth to their tailback position and with some talented deep threats at receiver, this team will be able to spread opponents out. Miami will be a run-first, defensive-minded football team and when you play that style and execute well the wins will follow. The +130 payout isn’t bad either for a team that just has to be .500 for a push.

Play #2: New York Jets Under 7 wins (+125)

I was hoping to see this number at 7.5, but given the ‘over’ 7 is favored at -155 I would not be surprised to see it climb there before Week 1. New York is a team that’s still a mess and won’t be able to reach the .500 mark which is why I have no problem taking the plus money here even with the potential for a push.

I mentioned earlier that everyone in the AFC East has to deal with NFC North and AFC West teams and that spells disaster for the Jets. QB Geno Smith is about as inconsistent as they get and although they went out and brought in Michael Vick and RB Chris Johnson this off-season, both of those players have already played their best football. Johnson has been so timid going through the hole the past few years that he’s not a huge threat anymore as defenses have learned to keep him contained between the numbers.

Schedule-wise, the Jets have a brutal early stretch as they play Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, and New England in Weeks 2 through 7 and I don’t see them winning one of those games. A 1-6 start to the year would make it tough to finish the season strong, especially when four of their last six (after their bye) are all on the road. Rex Ryan is not a coach I have too much faith in and I would not be surprised to see another media circus surround another year of poor results in New York.

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Odds To Win NFC East Division 2014

Odds to win AFC SouthOdds to win NFC EastOdds to win AFC Championship
Odds to win AFC EastOdds to win NFC WestNFL Surprise Teams?
Odds to win AFC NorthOdds to win NFC ChampionshipSuper Bowl Odds

nfc-east-predictions-2013

The NFC East may be the most wide-open division in this conference in 2014 as we’ve only seen one team (Philadelphia) win it twice over the last four years. The best record to win it during that time has been 10-6 SU, so this division will always be highly competitive within itself, and with Dallas, Washington and the Giants looking to rebound this season, the Eagles will have to endure numerous tests if they want to keep their throne.

NFC East Odds 2014:
- Philadelphia (+130)
- New York Giants (+320)
- Dallas (+400)
- Washington (+450)

Philadelphia won the division last year in Chip Kelly’s first pro season as a head coach. They did it with an aggressive style on both sides of the ball and one of the better performances by a RB in recent years from LeSean McCoy. QB Nick Foles came into his own as a passer, but he lost one of his biggest weapons in Desean Jackson this off-season. Many in the Eagles locker room think that subtraction will actually help Philly this year and propel them to the Super Bowl, but I’m not so sure. With so little difference between all four of these teams, and a first-place schedule to boot, I don’t think Philly deserves to be this heavily favored to win this division at this point of the year.

Every one in the NFC East has to deal with the AFC South and NFC West this year and while the former could provide some easy wins (Jacksonville), the latter could provide zero wins for NFC East teams. For Philadelphia, they also have to deal with Green Bay and Carolina (both division winners from last year) that no one else in their division will face and that’s tough. The Eagles schedule starts off rather soft with a home game against Jacksonville in Week 1, but they’ve got road games @ Indy and SF mixed in with home games vs. Wash, NYG, and STL before their Week 7 bye. Philly has to take control of that early part of the schedule if they want any hope of repeating.

I say that because the last have of their season is gruesome. Philadelphia finishes up with games @ Dallas, vs. Seattle, vs. Dallas, @ Washington, and @ NYG. Three straight division games to end the year is rough and with the NFC East likely up for grabs still at that time, at +130 I don’t know how you can like the Eagles to repeat as division champions.

Washington (+450) might be the most intriguing team in 2014, after a disastrous campaign in RGIII’s sophomore season. They were the ones who brought in WR Desean Jackson to boost their offense, and with a new coaching staff all the way around you can’t help but wonder if Washington will respond with a strong first year under a new regime the same way the Eagles did a season ago. Their first half of the schedule is relatively soft as well with a home game against Seattle in Week 5 the only game that looks like a “sure” loss at this point. They’ve got three straight against division rivals to finish the year as well, but that’s their opportunity to make a name for themselves as the hunter and not the hunted.

The NY Giants are still not too far removed from their 2011 Championship season and coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning know how to win. New York went through their ups-and-downs last year but are hoping to bounce back strong this year with a couple of rookie playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr and RB Andre Williams looking to make a big impact. They are a team that you can never count out, and if they can get through their Week 10 and 11 games @ Seattle and vs. San Francisco with at least a split, they’ll be a force to be reckoned with down the stretch.

That leaves “America’s Team” from Dallas with lofty expectations placed on them yet again by owner Jerry Jones. Dallas will always be one of the most overhyped teams in the NFL, and with the Cowboys currently on the longest drought in terms of winning this division, I don’t see anything changing too drastically this year. Defensively they are a mess and already lost their top LB (Sean Lee) for the season. They finish the year with four of their last six on the road and given their reputation of being choke artists down the stretch, I don’t think Romo and company will find a way to reverse those results this year.

As far as a pick goes for the NFC East, I’m going to give you two and let you decide. I don’t give Dallas much of a chance to win this division, and the Eagles present no value at +130, especially when I believe they’ll take a step back.

That leaves Washington and New York to battle it out for this division title and I believe one of them will take it down in the final weeks. Washington provides a better payday at +450, but they are too reliant on RGIII’s health, which leads me to stick with those reliable Giants who always seem to find a way to win.

Take New York to win the NFC East at +320

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Odds To Win AFC North Division & Predictions

AFC-North-Predictions-2013

Only one team from this division made the playoffs a year ago (Cincinnati) and that’s a surprise given how competitive this division has been in the past. Other than last year, we’ve often seen two of the four from the AFC North play meaningful football in January (Super Bowl Contenders) and I believe we will get back to that this season. The Bengals are the reigning division champions and will have a tough road to repeat. Cincinnati also lost there two coordinators as each moved on to a head coaching position this year and that’s part of the reason they are one of my first future plays here.

Odds to Win the 2014 AFC North:

- Cincinnati Bengals +200
- Pittsburgh Steelers +200
- Baltimore Ravens +250
- Cleveland Browns +500

Cincinnati Bengals – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 9 (-125)
Under 9 (-105)

Pittsburgh Steelers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (-140)
Under 8½ (+110)

Baltimore Ravens – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (-140)
Under 8½ (+110)

Cleveland Browns – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 6½ (-150)
Under 6½ (+120)

Play #1: Cincinnati Bengals Under 9 wins (+100)

Cincinnati has made the post-season three straight years and that coincides with their drafting of QB Andy Dalton. Dalton is one that never gets too much praise from the national media thanks to some poor performances in those playoff games, but he has always been a winner at every level he’s played. However, losing his offensive coordinator in Jay Gruden stings and while Cincinnati has promoted from within, they’ve still got a man at the top in Marvin Lewis who makes some questionable decisions at key moments. Cincinnati has not won a playoff game in Lewis’ tenure as coach (0-5) and he’s been at the helm since 2003. His career record is 89-85-1 as the Bengals head coach so it’s not like he’s ever been dominant and with two new guys calling the plays Cincinnati has too many hurdles to overcome this season to repeat as division champions. You’re going to need 10 wins to win the AFC North (most likely) and this version of the Bengals will top out at 8-8.

First off, Cincy has to deal with that first place schedule this season and that means facing the Broncos and Patriots. No other AFC North team squares off with those two teams and given that both are atop the list as favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, I don’t like Cincinnati’s chances in either of those games.

The Bengals also finish the year with five of their last seven on the road so they’d better make their hay early on in the year. The problem with that is that an early bye week (Week 4) combined with some tough games mixed in there, means Cincinnati won’t be running away with anything. Finishing up with Denver and Pittsburgh is no treat either (they play Pittsburgh twice in the last four weeks) and their final stretch is where I see them struggling to reach the .500 mark.

Play #2: Pittsburgh Steelers Over 8.5 wins (-165)

I’ll be the first to admit that this line is a little juicy for my liking at -165, but with my projection of Cincinnati falling off this year, someone’s got to step up and win this division and I believe it will be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2011 when they lost in OT during Wildcard Weekend to Tim Tebow’s Denver Broncos. Two straight seasons out of post-season play isn’t long for most franchises, but for Steelers fans it’s got to feel like an eternity.  They are a team that’s gotten a bit younger this year on both sides of the ball which will help, and if they can navigate their way through some tough games early on, six of their final ten are at home and they could get hot at the right time.

Everyone knows what QB Ben Roethlisberger brings to the table, but with a healthy RB Le’Veon Bell back this year and a receiving core that can stretch the field and blow the lid off a defense, Pittsburgh should be a fun team to watch this year. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is still there and will have his guys flying to the ball per usual and with many of their tough non-division games behind at home this year (vs. Houston, Indy, New Orleans, KC), the schedule lines up really well for the Steelers to be back atop this division in 2014.

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NFL Odds To Lead The League In Receiving Yards 2014

bet-on-nfl-player-stats-2014

Seven NFL WR’s finished with at least 1,400 receiving yards last season, and the possibilities are there for many more, some you probably would have never thought of, to do it again this year. Today, we’ll look at the NFL betting lines regarding the receiver to lead the league in pass catching yards in 2014.

Calvin Johnson (+300) – Megatron is going to get the ball thrown his way a ton once again this year, but now, the Lions have a bigger threat on the opposite side of the field in WR Golden Tate, and they’ve got what could be a massive star in the middle of the field in TE Eric Ebron. That’s a lot more work that opposing secondaries have to put in. With all of that extra attention going elsewhere, the combination of QB Matthew Stafford to Johnson could be the best in the league in 2014.

Demaryius Thomas (+500) – We’re a bit worried about Thomas being the second favorite this year at 5 to 1. Sure, he had 92 catches last season and was fourth in the league, and sure, WR Eric Decker isn’t there any longer to hog up the receptions from QB Peyton Manning, but we still wonder whether Manning has 5,000 yards in him again this year. There’s a point that his shelf life as an elite quarterback is going to run out, and if that’s the case, Thomas might not even crack the 1,000-yard barrier. The other problem with Thomas is that we never know what in the heck Manning is going to do with the ball in any given game. None of these receivers care more about their stats than wins. Thomas will be good again this year, but to think that he is going to lead the league in receiving is a bit ludicrous.

AJ Green (+2000) – We’re going to skip around just a bit here, as we just don’t think that there are any other receivers amongst the favorites worth backing. Green though, always has been the favorite target of QB Andy Dalton, and now that the West Coast style of offense is gone with the departure of OC Jay Gruden, there is a real chance to stretch the field out more. That probably means good things for the former Georgia Bulldog, who has had at least 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons in the NFL and at least 1,350 yards in each of his last two campaigns.

Jimmy Graham (+6000) – It seems to be a bit of a longshot that Graham could lead the league in receiving, but the presence of WR Brandin Cooks on the outside could open up things a lot more for QB Drew Brees’ best friend in the passing game. Graham was down for most of the end of the season, but he came out of the blocks last season with four games in his first five with at least 100 yards. The idea of Graham getting to 1,500 yards this year doesn’t seem totally out of the realm of possibility.

Who Will Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards?

Calvin Johnson +300
Demaryius Thomas +500
Dez Bryant +800
Julio Jones +1200
Antonio Brown +2000
AJ Green +2000
Brandon Marshall +2000
Alshon Jeffery +2500
Andre Johnson +3000
Jordy Nelson +3000
Pierre Garcon +3500
Vincent Jackson +3500
TY Hilton +4500
Larry Fitzgerald +4500
Keenan Allen +4500
Randall Cobb +5000
Roddy White +5000
Torrey Smith +5000
Mike Wallace +5000
Victor Cruz +5000
Cecil Shorts III +5000
Jimmy Graham +6000
DeSean Jackson +7000
Marques Colston +7500
Wes Welker +7500
Julian Edelman +10000
Rob Gronkowski +10000
Dwayne Bowe +10000
Percy Harvin +10000
Reggie Wayne +10000
Michael Crabtree +10000
Sammy Watkins +10000
Michael Floyd +10000
Eric Decker +10000
Rueben Randle +15000
Golden Tate +15000
Cordarrelle Patterson +15000
James Jones +15000
Brian Hartline +15000
Greg Jennings +15000
Riley Cooper +15000
Emmanuel Sanders +15000
DeAndre Hopkins +15000
Marqise Lee +20000
Tavon Austin +20000
Hakeem Nicks +20000
Mike Evans +20000
Kenny Stills +20000
Nate Washington +20000
Aaron Dobson +20000
Julius Thomas +30000

Odds To Lead NFL In Rushing Yards 2014


Finding an elite running back who can be on the field for all three downs is one of the toughest things in the NFL nowadays. There are still a few left remaining though, and we’ll try to take a stab on which back will end up winning the rushing title in 2014.

Adrian Peterson (+300) – The only problem that we have with Peterson is that the Vikings are going to end up counting on him so much that teams are just going to stack nine guys in the box and dare QB Teddy Bridgewater to beat them. That being said, that’s the same thing that happened two seasons ago, and AP still ran for over 2,000 yards and nearly broke the record for the most rushing yards in a season in NFL history. Peterson’s season was cut short with two games left to play, but he was still fifth in the league in rushing with 1,266 yards at the time.

LeSean McCoy (+450) – Shady led the league in rushing last season with 1,607 yards, and he was the beneficiary of all of those extra touches generated by the Chip Kelly offense. What really was impressive though, was the fact that McCoy averaged 5.12 yards per carry last season, and though that didn’t lead the league (DeMarco Murray did with 5.17 yards per carry), it was still really impressive because it came over 314 carries. McCoy is certainly headed to at least 1,200 yards again this season, and that might make him the best back in the league.

Arian Foster (+1500) – Head Coach Bill O’Brien is going to have to be careful with Foster this year, knowing that he broke down last season and was only able to play in eight games. The good news for prospective bettors on Foster though, is that Houston’s offensive line wasn’t the problem last season, and the team should be playing from ahead a lot more this year than it did in 2013. On top of that, RB Ben Tate is gone, and with that probably goes the running back tandem theory in Houston. It’s not a good prospect for Foster’s long-term career, but if he stays healthy, he’ll probably end up with 300 overall carries.

Chris Johnson (+7500) – It’s some major speculation on our part, but we definitely don’t think there is only a 1 in 75 chance that CJ2K ends up leading the league in rushing now that he has been picked up by the New York Jets. Granted, Johnson has lost a step for sure, but he is going to be in a backfield that he could lead on all three downs if he has the tread in his tires, and Head Coach Rex Ryan almost has no choice but to find out with QB Geno Smith leading an anemic passing game. Remember that Johnson still had 1,077 yards last season in spite of the fact that he was just so bad with the Titans. Maybe a change of scenery will help the former highlight machine.

Who Will Lead the NFL in Rushing?

Adrian Peterson +300
LeSean McCoy +450
Marshawn Lynch +1200
Arian Foster +1500
Jamaal Charles +1500
Alfred Morris +1800
Montee Ball +1800
Doug Martin +2000
Matt Forte +2000
Eddie Lacy +2500
Giovani Bernard +3000
Zac Stacy +3000
DeMarco Murray +3000
Stevan Ridley +4000
Ryan Mathews +4000
CJ Spiller +4000
Andre Ellington +5000
Toby Gerhart +5000
LeVeon Bell +5000
Ben Tate +6000
Frank Gore +7500
Steven Jackson +7500
Rashad Jennings +7500
Ray Rice +7500
Chris Johnson +7500
Knowshon Moreno +10000
Bishop Sankey +10000
Fred Jackson +10000
Trent Richardson +10000
Joique Bell +10000
Bernard Pierce +10000
DeAngelo Williams +10000
Reggie Bush +10000
Darren McFadden +10000
Colin Kaepernick +10000
Lamar Miller +10000
Chris Ivory +10000
Pierre Thomas +15000
Mark Ingram +15000
Robert Griffin III +15000
Cam Newton +15000
Maurice Jones-Drew +15000

Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards 2014

nfl-odds-player-stats-2014

Over the course of the last few seasons, there have been a number of quarterbacks who have really put up phenomenal numbers the likes of which couldn’t have even been fathomed two decades ago. This year, there are a few who could end up throwing for the most yards in the league, and we’re breaking down the odds on the most likely candidates to do just that.

Peyton Manning (+300) – After throwing for nearly 5,500 yards last season, Manning has to be a tremendous candidate to get to 5,000 yards once again. That being said, he’s also 38 years old and is going to have to break in at least one new receiver this year, as WR Eric Decker has moved on via free agency. It would take a fool to think that Manning wouldn’t lead the league in passing if he was to stay healthy this year, though at 38, that’s always a big cause for concern.

Drew Brees (+400) – Brees is probably the best bet of this bunch. Drafting WR Brandin Cooks out of Oregon State is only going to make this offense all the more explosive this year, especially if the TE Jimmy Graham deal ultimately gets done. Brees too, is getting up there in age at 35 years old, and that has to also be a concern. However, if you’re looking for consistency, this is the bet to make. Brees threw for 5,162 yards last season, and that was his lowest total in a year in any of his last three campaigns.

Aaron Rodgers (+600) – Rodgers was hurt for a good chunk of last season with a collarbone injury, but even when he was on the field, he didn’t strike us as a man who was going to set the world on fire with his passing yardage totals. There is no doubt that Rodgers can throw for 400 yards in a game when he needs to, but unlike Manning and Brees, Green Bay at least threatens the opposition with a running game. RB Eddie Lacy is going to take more touches now than Rodgers was stuck facing in the past, and that’s going to limit his abilities to throw for 5,000 yards this year.

Matthew Stafford (+700) – With TE Eric Ebron and WR Golden Tate in the fold, Stafford finally has a full set of receivers at his disposal to complement WR Calvin Johnson. It could mean huge things for Megatron, but even if it doesn’t, there will be openings all over the field. Stafford also was helped by the presence of RB Reggie Bush and RB Joique Bell, both of which were big enough threats on the ground to be dangerous, yet were also great pass catchers out of the backfield. It wasn’t a mistake that Stafford threw for 4,650 yards last season, and we have to think that he has a chance to get to 5,000 once again this year.

Tom Brady (+1000) – Rounding out the top five favorites is Brady. Much has been made about the fact that these wide receivers are garbage, and though they are, the future Hall of Famer still threw for 4,343 yards last season. TE Rob Gronkowski should be over all of his ailments and be able to help out in the middle of the field, and WR Aaron Dobson and WR Kenbrell Thompkins should be better in their second season as pros. Brady’s running game has been used a lot more of late, but when you look at those passing totals from last season, you can’t discount Brady.

Who is favored to lead NFL in Passing?

Peyton Manning +300
Drew Brees +400
Aaron Rodgers +600
Matthew Stafford +700
Tom Brady +1000
Matt Ryan +1500
Andrew Luck +1800
Tony Romo +2000
Jay Cutler +2000
Philip Rivers +2000
Nick Foles +2500
Eli Manning +3000
Robert Griffin III +7500
Ryan Fitzpatrick +10000
Russell Wilson +10000
EJ Manuel +10000
Sam Bradford +10000
Ryan Tannehill +10000
Joe Flacco +10000
Josh McCown +10000
Ben Roethlisberger +15000
Andy Dalton +15000
Carson Palmer +15000
Matt Schaub +15000
Colin Kaepernick +20000
Jake Locker +20000
Cam Newton +20000
Teddy Bridgewater +20000
Johnny Manziel +20000
Alex Smith +25000
Chad Henne +50000
Geno Smith +50000
Blake Bortles +100000

NFL Over-Under Wins Predictions 2014

NFL-vegas-over-under-wins-2014

2014 season NFL win totals have already been posted, and NFL training camps are open. There’s no better time than now to get on the backs of the teams that should be overachieving, and we’re here to break the best of the best down.

OVER PICKS

Jaguars Over 5 Wins (-107) – The Jaguars were much better in the second half of the season than they were in the first half last year, and that’s a testament to Head Coach Gus Bradley and the work he has put into this franchise. He’s got a few more of “his guys” on the team now, and he basically has two first round picks this year coming in with LT Luke Joeckel, last year’s No. 2 pick, finally coming off of his torn ACL which he suffered last preseason. The schedule is light, and we think that, just in division, the Jags can legitimately win four games. We wouldn’t be shocked to see Jacksonville finish with a .500 record this year.

Patriots Over 10.5 Wins (-170) – It’s a chalky play for sure, and it’s a ton of wins that have to be notched. However, is there really any way that, assuming QB Tom Brady stays healthy, the Pats don’t win at least 11 games this year? There’s no real reason to lose a game in division, and playing the NFC North gives what should be easy wins against Minnesota and Detroit. There isn’t a game on the schedule until at least the middle of November in which the Pats won’t be favored, including a home game against QB Peyton Manning and the Broncos. By the time the Patriots go on bye in Week 10, we expect this team to be at least 7-2, and from there, it’s probably a coast home with the last three games all being division tussles.

Buccaneers Over 7 Wins (-150) – Head Coach Lovie Smith has a history of winning games in the regular season, and he has built a team this year that we think can contend for the NFC South title. QB Josh McCown is the man going forward, and he has a ton of huge targets to look for in the red zone. The team’s running game will be bolstered by the return of RB Doug Martin, who missed most of the end of the season injured, and this young defense, which was middle of the road last year, should be a lot better this season.

Cardinals Over 7.5 Wins (-150) – The Cards were awfully good last year and won 10 games, and we aren’t so sure why the oddsmakers believe that they are going to take that many steps backwards this season. There aren’t any real appreciable losses to discuss from the roster, and Head Coach Bruce Arians is certainly going to keep this offense going. It’s still a third place schedule that Arizona is playing, and though there are two games against both the 49ers and the Seahawks, we would still need this team to be just above average the rest of the way if it was to get to eight wins



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UNDER PICKS

Falcons Under 8.5 Wins (-125) – The NFC South is getting better and better as the years go on, and many believe that the disaster that was the 2014 season for the Falcons is going to improve this year. We don’t see it. QB Matt Ryan has a good arm, but he isn’t one of the truly elite quarterbacks in this league. The defense has very few notable names on it, and TE Tony Gonzalez has retired. The ground game will be non-existent unless RB Steven Jackson finds the Fountain of Youth in these next several weeks. It’s just not a good formula for Atlanta to finish above .500. Head Coach Mike Smith should be worried about his job.

Ravens Under 8.5 Wins (+105) – This is another one of these teams that, based upon what we know about it historically, should be a no-brainer ‘over’ in most instances. However, we really question whether Baltimore can tally nine wins this season. It’s anyone’s guess whether RB Ray Rice will be ready to roll again, and if he isn’t ready to become an elite back again, we aren’t sure that there is enough here to carry this offense under QB Joe Flacco. The defense wasn’t nearly as good last season as it had been in years past with all of the defections from the offseason, and not a lot has been done to change that this time around either. Don’t worry about the names on the fronts of the jerseys. Baltimore isn’t nearly as good as the oddsmakers would like you to believe.

Titans Under 7 Wins (+105) – QB Jake Locker is going to have this whole team on his back this year, and there really isn’t a man here who can bail him out. He’s probably one of the worst three or four starting quarterbacks in the league, and we don’t see him leading this club to all that many victories. RB Chris Johnson is gone, and there really wasn’t a notable man to come in and replace him, so the running game is going to be a real question mark every passing week. The schedule isn’t all that tough for Tennessee, but this might be the worst team in a bad AFC South.

Redskins Under 7.5 Wins (-105) – It’s going to be a tough year for Head Coach Jay Gruden as we see it. The offense did get a big time weapon in WR DeSean Jackson, who is surely going to want to prove that he still has the goods to be mentioned as one of the best in the biz, but the West Coast style of offense that Gruden prefers to run isn’t going to mesh with QB Robert Griffin III as we see it. The defense has a ton of holes to fill from last season’s team, and it wasn’t a good defense in the first place. The meat grinder known as the NFC East won’t help matters any either, especially if there are only two wins out of six games or so to be earned within division.

NFL Win Totals 2014 from BOVADA:

Arizona Cardinals – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7½ (-150)
Under 7½ (+120)

Atlanta Falcons – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (EVEN)
Under 8½ (-130)

Baltimore Ravens – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (-140)
Under 8½ (+110)

Buffalo Bills – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 6½ (-150)
Under 6½ (+120)

Carolina Panthers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (EVEN)
Under 8½ (-130)

Chicago Bears – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (-150)
Under 8½ (+120)

Cincinnati Bengals – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 9 (-125)
Under 9 (-105)

Cleveland Browns – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 6½ (-150)
Under 6½ (+120)

Dallas Cowboys – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8 (+120)
Under 8 (-150)

Denver Broncos – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 11½ (-105)
Under 11½ (-125)

Detroit Lions – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (EVEN)
Under 8½ (-130)

Green Bay Packers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 10½ (EVEN)
Under 10½ (-130)

Houston Texans – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7½ (-150)
Under 7½ (+120)

Indianapolis Colts – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 9½ (EVEN)
Under 9½ (-130)

Jacksonville Jaguars – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 4½ (-165)
Under 4½ (+135)

Kansas City Chiefs – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8 (-130)
Under 8 (EVEN)

Miami Dolphins – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8 (+110)
Under 8 (-140)

Minnesota Vikings – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 6 (-140)
Under 6 (+110)

New England Patriots – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 10½ (-150)
Under 10½ (+120)

New Orleans Saints – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 9½ (-150)
Under 9½ (+120)

New York Giants – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

New York Jets – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (EVEN)

Oakland Raiders – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 4½ (-150)
Under 4½ (+120)

Philadelphia Eagles – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 9 (EVEN)
Under 9 (-130)

Pittsburgh Steelers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8½ (-140)
Under 8½ (+110)

San Diego Chargers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

San Francisco 49ers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 10½ (-130)
Under 10½ (EVEN)

Seattle Seahawks – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 11 (-115)
Under 11 (-115)

St. Louis Rams – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7½ (-150)
Under 7½ (+120)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (EVEN)

Tennessee Titans – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7 (EVEN)
Under 7 (-130)

Washington Redskins – 2014 Regular Season Win Total
Over 7½ (EVEN)
Under 7½ (-130)


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NFL Odds 2014: Who Will Win The NFC West?

nfc-west-predictions-2014

With the two favorites to win the entire NFC conference being in this division (Seattle, San Francisco), the NFC West should be a two-horse race all year. The Seahawks and 49ers played an epic NFC Championship game a year ago and with both favored to meet there again, the winner of that contest (should they play) may come down to who has home field advantage. Therefore winning this division is a must for both teams.

ODDS TO WIN NFC WEST DIVISION 2014:

Seattle (+125)

San Francisco (+155)

St Louis (+800)

Arizona (+850)

All four of these NFC West teams have to deal with the NFC East and AFC West this year and that means w will get a Super Bowl rematch between Seattle and Denver (Week 3). Denver must play the other three teams as well which isn’t good news for the Rams or Cardinals as they try to keep ascending in the ranks. In fact, while St Louis and Arizona have the easier schedules of the four, I don’t believe either of them will have the staying power to be atop this division by the time the regular season is concluding. Both will be able to pull off some surprising upsets this season (especially at home), but finishing 8-8 will not get you an NFC West title anymore (Seattle won it with a 7-9 SU record a few seasons back).

The odds may be enticing at +800 and higher for one of these two teams to dethrone the reigning order of things, but Arizona and St Louis are still a year or two away from being seriously considered as a division winner.

That leaves us with Seattle and San Francisco.

Seattle is going to get a lot of love being the defending division champion, Super Bowl champion, and having the best home field advantage in the league.  But with that first place result comes a first place schedule and that means dates with Green Bay (Week 1) and the Panthers (Week 8) which no other NFC West team will have to face. Both of these teams also meet twice in three weeks late in the year (Weeks 13 and 15) which will likely decide the division, but the 49ers will have an edge with the first meeting at home and being more rested with their Bye Week coming in Week 8 while Seattle is resting during Week 4. That’s a long stretch of games for Seattle to go through at the end and with five of their last six against division opponents, there won’t be any easy ones.

San Fran has the revenge angle on their side in this rivalry and having been to three straight NFC Championship games, they are consistently good. Their year is nicely broken up with that bye week coming right in the middle and they have a chance to reel off plenty of wins prior to that week of rest. The 49ers have all the weapons to give Seattle (and the rest of the league) fits and with how good their defense is up front and on the back end, scoring on them will continue to be a chore. The 49ers won’t have the bounty on their head that Seattle does being the defending champs and that should help San Fran alleviate some of the pressure-packed situations they could face.

Since the Seahawks and 49ers are so equal in every facet of the game, I’m going with the team that has the better price (+155) and a bit more motivation this year to dominate. The 49ers saw how tough it was going up to Seattle last year for that NFC Championship game and if they could make the Seahawks or any other NFC team come to their yard with a Super Bowl berth on the line, the 49ers will like their chances.

Take San Francisco to win the NFC West (+155)

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