We were 1-2 with our Week 3 upset calls as Notre Dame got the job done emphatically 20-3 over Michigan State at odds of +170. Our underdogs went 2-1 ATS as Arizona State covered while almost upsetting Missouri at +220. And now we move on to Week 4.
UPSET #1: Michigan (+5½) +180 at Notre Dame – We have an upset involving the Irish for the second straight week, except this time we are going against them as they appear to have become overvalued in this spot. Yes the defense has been great, but the offense has been spotty the last two weeks after dominating an outclassed Navy team in Week 1. This game will come down to quarterback play, and Notre Dame’s freshman Everett Golson completed only 14 of his 32 passes last week for 178 yards.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s Denard Robinson has beaten the Irish almost single-handedly in each of the last two years, and he is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 8.8 yards per rush so far this season. As improved as the Irish defense is, it has not faced a dual threat like Robinson since, well, the last time it faced Robinson! The Wolverines prevailed in that game 35-31 and we like them again here.
UPSET #2: Rutgers (+7) +170 at Arkansas – The nightmare season for Arkansas began before this year even started with the whole Bobby Petrino scandal, and the Razorbacks have still not awoken, getting shocked by UL Monroe 34-31 in overtime two weeks ago and losing quarterback Tyler Wilson to a concussion in the process, and then getting embarrassed at home 52-0 by Alabama last week. Wilson is currently questionable for this contest, but the body language of the Hogs was one of a beaten-down team last week.
Meanwhile, Rutgers is off to a 3-0 start after an upset road win at South Florida as a 7½-point underdog, and the Scarlet Knights would love nothing better than to give the Big East Conference a boost by going on the road and emerging victorious in SEC country. They just might pull it off too based on the defensive numbers of these teams, as Rutgers ranks 12th in the country in total defense yielding only 249.3 yards per game while Arkansas ranks 95th, surrendering 436.7 yards per contest.
UPSET #3: Utah (+7) +230 at Arizona State – This is also the second straight week that we are calling for an upset in a game involving Arizona State, and we are going against the Sun Devils this time. The Utah offense actually looked more efficient last week with new quarterback John Hays under center, and the end result was a 24-21 upset of then ranked BYU. Hays replaced Jordan Wynn, whose college career ended two weeks ago when he again injured his throwing shoulder, which was operated on twice last year. Hays provided a spark in the second half when he replaced Wynn vs. Utah State in that game and that energy carried over to last week.
Now the Sun Devils almost cashed a nice money line ticket for us while losing 24-20 at Missouri, but keep in mind that they were facing a backup quarterback with the Tigers’ James Franklin out of that game. Also, the ASU offense only accumulated 296 total yards.