We had our third straight winning week in Week 7, but oh what could have been if Stanford did not lose in overtime at +255! We did nail TCU at +255 for a profitable +0.55 while going 1-2, and our plays went 2-1 ATS. Let’s go for a least two outright upsets in Week 8!
UPSET #1: Auburn (+7) +230 at Vanderbilt – We totally get that Auburn is 1-5 with its only win coming in overtime vs. a Sun Belt team in UL Monroe, and that the Tigers have not named their starting quarterback for this game, not that it matters since both Kiehl Frazier and Clint Moseley have been inept. However, we actually see value in Auburn here with Vanderbilt favored by this much. The Commodores are always pesky underdogs, but it is a different story when they are expected to win. Vandy is 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that it has been favored, and all eight of the losses were straight up! Perhaps most importantly, Auburn’s quarterback issues may be rendered moot due to the fact that Vanderbilt ranks 103rd in the country in rushing defense at 203.5 yards per game, so the Tigers can keep attacking that weakness with Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb, both of whom ran well in a 41-20 loss at Mississippi last week while accounting for 113 of the Tigers’ pathetic 213 total yards in the game.
UPSET #2: Northwestern (+5) +170 vs. Nebraska – While we respect that Nebraska is averaging 507.3 total yards per game including 292.0 rushing yards, we still think that a Cornhuskers team that is 0-2 on the road this year and is coming off of a 63-38 drubbing at Ohio State is an overlay on the road here vs. a 6-1 Northwestern team that is a perfect 4-0 at home. Nebraska has had trouble stopping teams with spread offenses, as Ohio State rushed for 371 yards vs. the Huskers last game and these Wildcats went into Lincoln last season and upset Nebraska while rushing for 207 yards with their version of the spread. Granted that was with Dan Persa running the offense, but things have not changed much when Kain Colter has been under center this year. The 2012 Northwestern team is averaging 228.4 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry, with the quarterback Colter rushing for 421 yards on 5.5 yards per rush, and he was even a perfect 10-for-10 passing the ball in a 21-13 win at Minnesota last week.
UPSET #3: Washington (+8) +245 at Arizona – This is a battle of 3-3 teams that cannot be any more different stylistically, with Arizona relying on an offense that is averaging 551.3 total yards per game and Washington leaning on a defense that is allowing only 354.7 yards per contest. We almost always favor the defense in situations like this, and after the Huskies covered the spread in a 24-14 loss to USC last week, they will probably not be intimidated by Arizona’s pass-happy offense. Yes, the Wildcats are averaging a whopping 388.3 passing yards per game, but Washington ranks 12th in the country in pass defense while allowing 6.8 yards per attempt, and as long as the Huskies can contain Matt Scott, they should be in this game throughout with a nice chance at the upset.
