The Indianapolis Colts will look to build off their miraculous comeback win over the Chiefs on Sunday when they head to Foxboro to battle Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the divisional round. Indy was forced to swallow a bitter pill in their first road playoff game last year in Baltimore, while the Patriots have won and covered their divisional round clash each of the L/2 seasons.
COLTS – PATRIOTS PLAYOFF BETTING LINE 2014:
New England’s defense leaves much to be desired, so if he’s once again on top of his game, the Colts will have a great shot of improving upon their 5-3 SU & ATS road records.
2. Why the PATRIOTS will cover the spread: There likely isn’t another team on the planet that knows how to get it done more in the divisional round than that of the Hoody’s Patriots. Since dropping two in a row, New England has gone out and taken it to both the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans each of the L/2 seasons. With Tom Brady leading the charge, the Patriots will always put themselves in a solid position to win – especially at home where they went 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS throughout the regular season.
NE’s balanced offensive attack should be able to do as it pleases against a Colts defense that can’t stop the run and just allowed KC QB Alex Smith to torch them for 378 yards and 4 TDs last week.
3. Total Talk Colts/Pats: Last week’s barnburner snapped a string of three straight Indianapolis games that combined to go ‘under’ the closing number. But those three games came against two wretched offenses and a KC team that refused to show its hand in Week 16. The Colts played to a 4-4 O/U mark on the road in the regular season, and the ‘under’ is 10-4 in their L/14 playoff games and a perfect 6-0 in their L/6 playoff road games.
The Patriots played to high scorers in five of their eight regular season home games, and they’ve scored 40+ points in their L/2 divisional round tussles. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in their L/4 home games and a perfect 4-0 the L/4 times they ran up against the Colts on the gridiron.
4. Betting Trends for Colts/Pats: I was all over Kansas City plus the points last week before tons of cash completely altered the betting market. I have no faith in this Colts outfit regardless of the #ChuckStrong stigma attached to it and firmly believe they extinguished all nine of their lives in that comeback bid. New England is well seasoned in what it takes to come out on top in match-ups like this, and I’m expecting a one-sided final result reminiscent of their L/2 division round games. NE was a 20.5 and 10-point favorite when they hosted this match-up in 2011 and 2012.
Indy has come a long way since, but I simply just don’t see it being able to go on the road in the elements and remotely stay competitive. Yes, the Colts are 4-2 ATS the six times they opposed a +.500 team this season, but they’re 0-1 SU & ATS on the road under those parameters in the playoffs with Luck at the controls. Until they show me they can hang with the big boys with it all on the line on the road, I’m going to continue fading and suggest you do to.
New England 45 – Indianapolis 20