Colts vs. Patriots Odds, Point Spread Picks & Score Prediction AFC Championship
Last season, the Indianapolis Colts went on the road to Foxboro and were killed by the New England Patriots. Andrew Luck proved last week that he was far superior to the man he replaced in Indy, Peyton Manning, and now, he is going to try to take care of the other contemporary to his predecessor, Tom Brady. The Pats though, are 6.5 favorites in this one, while the ‘total’ for the AFC Championship Game is lined at a very high 53.5.
COLTS – PATRIOTS POINT SPREAD AFC CHAMPIONSHIP 2015:
1. Why the COLTS will cover the spread: There is a moment in every young quarterback’s career when they proclaim that they have arrived. That time very well could be now for Andrew Luck, just as it happened five years ago for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Luck wasn’t perfect by any stretch of the imagination against the Denver Broncos last week, but he was clinical when he needed to be.
The Indy defense is what really caught our eye. Sure, this unit gave up 42 to the Patriots three months ago, but over the course of the last three games, it allowed only 13 to Denver, 10 to the Cincinnati Bengals and 10 to the Tennessee Titans.
2. Why the PATRIOTS will cover the spread: New England, for our money, has the best team in the NFL. Sure, they didn’t cover last week, but they proved why they can beat anyone in the game. Even when the Patriots were down by 14 on two different occasions against the Baltimore Ravens, they never relented. Tom Brady was able to lead the troops back, and he made awesome throw after awesome throw to put the team in a position to win.
The ground game bothers us, but what we saw out of Brady was the ability to win a game at all costs. He threw for three touchdowns, and the 51-yard Julian Edelman trick play was just another moment of brilliance out of Bill Belichick and his offense.
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3. Total Talk COLTS/PATRIOTS: There’s an interesting dichotomy here between the ‘over’ and the ‘under’. The last six games in this series have all eclipsed the ‘total’, and the average game reached 65.5 points per game in that run. However, New England has gone 5-2 for ‘under’ bettors in its last seven games overall, while the Colts are a perfect 6-0 for ‘under’ backers in their last six.
4. Betting Trends for COLTS/PATRIOTS: Indy has put together three straight covers since getting its doors blown off in a rather meaningless game in Dallas back in Week 16. In fact, if you take that game against the Cowboys out, the Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their other seven games since getting killed by the Pats. New England has failed to cover its last three, including not quite getting past the number against the Ravens last week in the divisional round of the playoffs.
However, the Patriots have won five straight games in this series, including covering each of the last three, winning all three by at least 21 points.
Patriots 37 – Colts 21