Week 15 NFL Point Spreads – Week 15 Expert NFL Picks – #1 NFL Betting Sportsbook – NFL ATS Standings
The Week 14 Saturday night game has the undefeated New Orleans Saints, hosting the 8-5 Dallas Cowboys at the Superdome. The line currently has the Saints favored by 7.5 with the total points listed at 55.5. New Orleans will be looking to clinch home field advantage with a win or tie and a Minnesota, win or tie. Dallas is still fighting for their playoff lives as their loss last week dropped them 1 game behind Philadelphia, but with their head to head record against Philadelphia, winning out ensures them a playoff spot. Saturday’s game will hinge on what type of New Orleans team shows up. Like most teams looking to the playoffs, they have been prone to playing to the level of their competition. If not careful, Dallas can easily sneak into the Superdome and come out with a victory, but with home field still on the line, expect a focused New Orleans to blow the doors off this Dallas team.
The lackluster play of the Saints in recent weeks has been hurting the average bettor especially since they steam rolled the league in their first 6 games. In the last 7 games, New Orleans is 2-5 ATS with one of their wins coming against New England and all their losses coming against Atlanta, Carolina, St Louis, Washington, and Atlanta again without Ryan or Turner. Combined, these teams have a record of 22-39 and with the exception of Atlanta, all them rank 23rd or worse in points scored per game and 16th or worse in total offensive yards per game. In just looking at the last 3 games, New Orleans has allowed an average of 404 yards per game, up nearly 50 yards from their season average of 347.6 yards per game. In recent weeks, teams have managed to expose the lackluster play on defense and the 3rd ranked Dallas offense in yards per game can easily do the same.
Dallas enters the game coming off a tough 20-17 defeat to the Chargers. This gives Romo a 0-2 record for the month of December and 5-9 career record for the month. This season Romo has thrown for 22 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions with a completion percentage of 62.2% and in the month of December, he has thrown for 5 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. The Dallas struggles have been that of a hard luck loser much of the season. They can put up some impressive offensive numbers both passing and on the ground. They can stop teams from scoring as they rank 6th in the league in points allowed at 17.9. However, there always seems to be one or two plays in a game that turns the game against them. Facing the Giants in week 12, it was a 74 yard pass completion that gave New York the go ahead score to win the game. The reason for the back to back loses is a microcosm of how Dallas has played much of the year and to beat New Orleans, in New Orleans, they cannot afford to waste opportunities or give up the big play.
At home most teams play better, and no team is better at home than the New Orleans Saints. As impressive as the offense has been all year, when playing at home, they score more, gain more yards, hold the football longer, pick up more first downs and the list goes on and on. The one player that thrives the most from playing at home is Drew Brees. In the Superdome, he has thrown for 5 more touchdowns, has 4 less interceptions, completes 3% more of his passes and is far more aggressive when throwing the football down field with an average of 10.3 yards per attempt. The dominance of Brees at home is almost to be expected by week 14, but covering the spread will hinge on how well the defense can force Dallas to settle for 3 in the red zone, instead of 7 points as the SD Chargers did in week 14.
The New Orleans defense has become very average in recent weeks ranking 21st in yards allowed per game. At home the defense plays significantly better with the help of the crazed Saints crowd. They go from giving up 404.3 yards per game over the last 3 games to when playing at home, only giving up 329.8 yards per game. Their pass rush is probably the most notable improvement as they go from averaging 2.0 sacks per game to 2.3 sacks when playing at home. Because of how their offense scores points, it forces teams into passing far more than they would like and the pass rush of Will Smith and Charles Grant have take advantage with a combined 14.5 sacks this season. The Dallas offensive line will also do its part in giving up a few sacks and pressures as on the road, the Cowboys allow an average of 3 sacks per game, good for 3rd worst in the league.
The current line has the New Orleans Saints favored by 7.5. Against the spread New Orleans is 8-5 while Dallas is 6-7. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home. Dallas is both 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. Against New Orleans, Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
The over-under total points for the game are 53.5. New Orleans is 7-6 O/U and Dallas is 6-7. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 6 games but OVER in 14 of New Orleans’s last 19 games at home. For Dallas, The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the last 6 games and UNDER in 7 of Dallas’s last 10 games when playing New Orleans.
Cowboys vs. Saints Saturday Night Pick: New Orleans will play up to their competition this week and win fairly easily over Dallas. The Drew Brees lead offense will do their part and score 30 plus points and the defense will be just good enough to keep Dallas from covering. Playing at home along with a good pass rush and lousy pass protection for Romo on the road will force Romo to make mistakes. As for the points, neither team is all that decisive in the O/U category, but recent history suggest the UNDER is the safe play, but with how explosive these offensives can be I like the OVER.
See live NFL Odds every week of the NFL Lines season. Make sure to visit our sports betting forum on a daily basis. Also check out updated 2009-2010 Super Bowl Odds.
About Uncle Jay