Free NFL Picks

NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Ravens vs. Packers
Packers
+2 -110
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Green Bay Packers +2

Brett Hundley is getting better with each start.  He finished strong against the Lions, and that carried over into last week's 23-16 road win in Chicago as 5-point underdogs.  Hundley was efficient, completing 18 of his 25 passes, and that helped the running game delivered 160 rushing yards against a stout Chicago defense.  The Ravens have lost five of their last seven games overall and I don't think they should be favored on the road Sunday.  I think they are getting too much credit for coming into this game off a bye.  The Ravens have injury issues all over the field and can't be trusted.  Their offense has been atrocious, averaging just 287 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  The Ravens are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Ravens are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 6 points or less.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. NFC opponents.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Give me the Packers.

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Chiefs vs. Giants
Chiefs
-10½ +100
  at  GTBETS
in 1d

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5

Andy Reid is 16-2 SU & 13-5 ATS in his last 18 games off a bye.  It is well documented that he is the best coach in the NFL in getting his team to respond off a bye.  And the Chiefs will already be a motivated squad anyway after losing three of their last four games coming into the bye.

The New York Giants have clearly been lacking motivation, and it appears they just want their season to be over.  The Giants are 1-8 on the season with three straight double-digit losses.  They lost 24-7 at home to Seattle, 51-17 at home to the Rams and 21-31 on the road to the 49ers.

The Giants' defense has given up a whopping 82 points in their last two games, and it's clear the defense has quit.  I've seen tape of their last two games where I could see defenders purposely avoiding tackles, instead letting guys on the Rams and 49ers score.  It's a sight to see, and Ben McAdoo has clearly lost control of this team.

I think many of the younger teams in the NFL like the 49ers and Browns will keep playing hard despite their poor record.  I don't think the same can be said for the Giants, who are a veteran team and are just more concerned with collecting a paycheck.  I just don't trust this team at all right now.

That's why I'm not afraid to lay double-digits on the road with the Chiefs here, which is something I rarely do. The mindset of these teams couldn't be more opposite coming into this game.  I think you'll know you have a winner by halftime here with the Chiefs already up by double-digits and coasting from there.

Kansas City is 9-0 ATS in road games vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game over the past three seasons.  The Chiefs are 10-2 ATS as road favorites over the last three seasons.  Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following an ATS loss, and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Patriots vs. Raiders
Raiders
+7 -105
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Oakland Raiders +7

The Key: The Oakland Raiders are coming off a bye week.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a bye.  I like the fact that the Raiders played in Mexico City last year and beat the Texans.  So the situation couldn't be better for the Raiders.  I think the Patriots are getting a little too much love now after blowing out the Broncos, who have been getting rolled by everyone.  The Patriots have won 5 in a row, but 3 of those wins came by one score.  The Raiders need this game more as they sit at 4-5 and want to get back in the playoff hunt.  Take Oakland.

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Lions vs. Bears
Lions
-3 -101
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

1* Free Play on Detroit Lions.

The Lions went into their bye week sitting at 3-3 and came out of it with a disappointing effort in a 20-15 loss to a then red hot Pittsburgh Steelers team. But Detroit comes into this one back on top form, having won two straight, most recently a convincing 38-24 destruction of the Browns at home. The Bears have once again stalled though. They lost a tough 20-17 game at home to New Orleans before their bye week and then fell flat against the Aaron Rodger-less Packers last weekend. Note that Chicago is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 17 points or less in its previous contest, while Detroit is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous outing. Consider the surging LIONS in this matchup.

AAA Sports

NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs. Browns
Jaguars
-7½ -108
  at  BETONLINE
in 1d

DMack's Free Play for The NFL on Sunday, November 19, 2017, is on the Jacksonville Jaguars

"I'm laying more than a touchdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road" is not the easiest thing to have come out of your mouth but this is a club that features a solid running game and is statistically the best defense in football. The Jags allow less than 15 ppg. and their point differential, +92, is best in the league. The hapless/winless Browns are last in the NFL in turnovers and not co-incidentally last (-97) in point differential. Barring a complete meltdown, the 6-3 Jags are likely going to the playoffs. Jax dodged a bullet last week vs. San Diego but if the Jags come to play and Blake Bortles has a clean sheet, it's hard to see how the Jags don't easily roll here. If for no other reason, you are going against a team that is 8-27-1 against the points in its L36. Jags 26-13.

NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Ravens vs. Packers
Packers
+2 -110
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Sunday 11-19-17

Green Bay +2

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs. Browns
UNDER
37½ -110
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

R&R Totals FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 11-19-17

UNDER 37 1/2 Jacksonville/Cleveland

Join R&R Totals with his total on Bills v. Chargers!

NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Cardinals vs. Texans
Cardinals
+1½ -110
  at  5DIMES
in 1d

10* FREE NFL PICK (Cardinals +1.5)

I think it’s worth the risk here to take the Cardinals on the road in a pick’em game against the Texans. I’m actually shocked that the public isn’t all over Arizona given how bad Houston has looked with Tom Savage as their starting quarterback. I know the Rams are playing great right now, but to only score 7 points and put up 283 yards of offense is hard to ignore. Keep in mind it wasn’t much better the week before at home against a bad Colts team, where they scored just 14 points and had 288 total yards. The defense was responsible for 7 of those points and the offense didn’t score a single point until late in the 4th quarter.

Let’s also not forget that Savage started their opener against Jacksonville at home and they lost that game 7-29. Note the only touchdown in that game came after Watson replaced Savage. So in basically 10 quarters of work this season, Savage has guided the Texans to 14 points. An even more telling stat is that he’s completed just 47.3% of his passes, which is downright awful by NFL standards (there’s 29 quarterbacks who are completing 60% or better).

I believe the fact that this game is being played at home and the Cardinals could be down to 3rd string QB Blaine Gabbert, is the only thing that is keeping this line where it is. Whether it’s Gabbert or backup Drew Stanton, both are substantially better than Savage.

I also like this matchup for Arizona. I’ve already noted how bad Savage is and his horrific accuracy throwing the ball. For Houston’s offense to have any hope of success they need to be able to run the ball. That’s not going to be an easy task here, as the Cardinals own the league’s 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 97.7 ypg. Bruce Arians is also a smart head coach and you can bet that he’s going to load the box here and force Savage to beat them. Adding to the coaching edge is the fact that Arizona will have had 3 extra days to prepare for this game after playing on Thursday.

One last thing to note about the Cardinals is that while they are just 4-5 on the season, all 5 of their losses have come against teams who currently own a winning record (Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams). Taking care of business against bad teams on the road has been one thing this team has done well, as Arizona is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record. On the flip side of this, the Texans are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the Cardinals +1.5! 

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs. Browns
Browns
+8 -105
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

Free pick on Browns +

I think there's some great value here with Cleveland catching more than a touchdown on their home field. With the 49ers win last week, the Browns are now the only winless team in the league at 0-9. These are the kind of teams the public wants nothing to do and will fade them regardless of the number. There's no question this line is inflated. Keep in mind the Jaguars were only a 4-point favorite at the Jets and they lost that game 20-23. 

With an offense that is extremely one dimensional give Blake Bortles struggles throwing the ball, this is just too many points for Jacksonville to be laying. I think the Jags could find it really hard to move the ball, as this Browns defense has been very good at stopping the run, as they rank 4th in the NFL allowing just 86.4 ypg. 

I also think this is mentally a tough spot for Jacksonville who have to be feeling good about themselves after 3 straight wins. Never easy giving a bad team like the Browns the respect they deserve and we can bank on Cleveland giving a max effort to get that first win (no one in the NFL wants to be associated with 0-16). I think it will be even harder for the Jags to get up with the conditions, as temps are expected to be right around freezing with a potential mix of snow and rain. 

I think all of this adds up to an easy play here on the Browns, who only need to lose by a touchdown or less on their home field. I think they do better than that and potentially get that elusive win. Take Cleveland! 

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs. Browns
Jaguars
-7½ -108
  at  BETONLINE
in 1d

Jacksonville -7.5

The Jags open at a generous number against the Browns here on Sunday.

Jacksonville is making a legitimate case for themselves this season. They are one of the top, if not the top, defense in the NFL thus far. They are constantly putting pressure on in the backfield and are giving up only 14.9 points per game. 

Cleveland is at an all time low right now too. They continue to struggle, going just 2-7 ATS on the season. This team just isn't talented enough and has enough problems and distractions going on right now. 

Some trends to note. Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Cleveland is just a mess these days. It's too hard to trust them in any spot, making them a nice fade.

Back Jacksonville.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Patriots vs. Raiders
Patriots
-6½ -116
  at  BETONLINE
in 1d

The Raiders go head to head with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots this Sunday in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City .  The Pats after a slow start to their campaign have looked over powering of late and last week against the leagues No.1 defense (Denver) put 41 points on the board in a lopsided win. This week vs the 28 th overall ranked Raiders total defense, that allows 361.1 ypg, another romp is expected by me. The champs D, was also a question mark earlier on this season, but wow , have they ever come around, as is evident by allowing 14,17,7, 13 and 16 points  in their L/5 overall allowing  a combined average of just 13.4 ppg. I know the Raiders behind their stud QB Derek Carr have a reputation for being an explosive offensive team, but to this point in the season have not shown much consistency this year with their attack, averaging just 21.8 ppg, and I'm betting will find it hard to keep up with their behemoth  opponents today.

Belichick is 28-9 ATS  L/37 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games with the average score clicking in at  NE 28.8 opposition 18.8 and is  15-4 ATS L/19 after allowing 17 points or less in 4 straight games with the average score clicking in at NE 29.3 opposition 17.5. NEW ENGLAND is 13-0 ATS   after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games with the average margin of victory coming by 15.5 ppg ( 2 TD plus)

OAKLAND is 2-10 ATS  L/12 in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 .NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  L/6 after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS L/6  in road games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  L/6 as a road favorite of 7 points or less.NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS L/11 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play.

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - mistake-free team (1.25 TO/G  or less committed) vs a team with 1.25 TO/G or less  forced after 8+ games, after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 43-17 ATS over the L/34 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Projected score: New England 37 Oakland 17

Play on the New England Pats to cover

NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Jaguars vs. Browns
Browns
+8½ -115
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Play - Cleveland Browns (Game 464).

Edges - Browns: 6-2-1 ATS all-time home off a loss when hosting AFC South opponents… Jaguars 1-7 ATS as road favorites against avenging foes… With Jacksonville a ridiculous 1-19 SU and 4-15-1 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, grab the points in this stunner.  We recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.  Thank you and good luck as always.

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NFL  |  Nov 19, 2017
Bengals vs. Broncos
Broncos
-2½ -112
  at  BETONLINE
in 1d

As bad as things have gone for the Broncos of late – five straight losses, all of them by double-digits – there is some hope. And that hope comes in the form of the Cincinnati Bengals, who arrive in Denver with their own set of issues. The Bengals are 1-4 on the road this season, and that one victory was against the Browns, who are more than halfway toward a winless season. So  . . . books have made this a tight spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game. There’s not a lot of compete left in either team, but the Broncos are playing at home and giving less than 3 in what very well could be a field goal game. So swallow hard and lay the points, figuring that Denver is less-bad than Cincinnati is at this point in time.




Anyone can go on the internet and purchase picks from any of the so-called experts out there. Here at BetVega, we always think that is a great idea, but we only bring you the best of the best handicappers that are out there for your NFL picks. If you want to do this without having to pay for any selections, you could end up being just fine with free NFL picks.

Going at it alone is generally the tried and true method to making free NFL picks. There are any number of ways for handicappers to come up with their free NFL picks, and we’ll outline some of those ways now.

The tried and true method would be trying to figure out how the matchup really is going to play out between two teams. For example, we know that the New Orleans Saints are going to try to throw the ball a lot more often than they run it with QB Drew Brees. The Saints will be a lot better poised to try to win a shootout against a similar team that perhaps isn’t quite as talented than they would be against a team that wants to grind it out and limit possessions. On top of that, Brees and that offense could be hurt by a team which has a deep secondary and a great pass rush. A great handicapper though, would perhaps realize that a team’s third cornerback is weak, and with a man like Brees and a set of receivers that is typically as deep as his tends to be, that could end up being the difference between a win or a loss.

Then there’s the statistical way to go through this all. Keeping with our example with the Saints, we know that they are going to rank in the Top 10 in the NFL all year long in passing thanks to Brees. We know that a team that has a better secondary and ranks in the Top 10 in pass defense is going to be a heck of a lot more likely to cover against New Orleans than a team that ranks in the bottom third of the league against the pass.

Utilizing our handicapping articles is a great way to make free NFL picks, whether you use them exclusively for your plays or whether you use them to aid you in your own plays. That’s why our articles aren’t just a matter of a pick as you’ll find so many other places on the internet. We want you to not only see what our handicappers think, but how confident we are in our plays along with an analysis of our thoughts to help you make your best free NFL picks possible.

As always, if you’re going to make free NFL picks on your own, the more time you put into studying each game, the better off you’re going to end up being. Just throwing darts or playing off of gut might work in the short run, but in the long run, you’re going to really need to know what you’re doing to be a long-term winner.