Giants-Redskins Point Spread – Expert MNF Picks – #1 NFL Betting Sportsbook – NFL Public Bet %
Monday night is a clash of NFC East rivals when the New York Giants travel to Fedex Field to play the Washington Redskins. The line currently has the Giants as 3 point road favorites with the total points listed at 43.5. The 7-6 Giants are certainly in must win territory if they have any chance of making the playoffs. Having lost last week and now 3rd in the East, the Giants should be fully exposed as a very average team this late in the season. A combination of poor defense and inconsistent play for Eli Manning, have made this team very hard to watch for the Giants faithful. The Washington Redskins at 4-9 have been accustomed to losing all season, so Redskin fans go into every game with tempered expectations. Despite the record, Washington has played some very good football of late, almost pulling off upsets of Dallas, Philadelphia, and New Orleans in successive weeks. Establishing some offense, to go along with one of the best defenses in the league, makes Washington a tough 4-9 team. Look for Washington to pull off the upset this week and play the role of the spoiler for the New York Giants.
The Redskins struggled all year in trying to develop Jason Campbell and the offense. Since the bye week, this atrocious offense has played up to mediocre standards behind Jason Campbell. Going 2-4 during the stretch, Campbell has managed 9 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions with a QB rating of 92.9. The team has scored over 24 points in 4 of their last 6 games, something that was never done in the first 7 weeks of the season, having transitioned into a far more pass heavy team. In the last 3 games the team is averaging 35.7 attempts per game which would be good for 8th in the league, providing the perfect system for a Giant team that cannot stop anyone through the air this season.
Calling the Giants secondary bad would be an understatement this season. This group has alone cost the Giants any realistic chance of making the post season. Looking at the numbers, the Giants are ranked 8th in total yards allowed, 9th in rushing yards allowed and 9th in passing yards allowed. On the stat sheet it looks like a good defense until you realize that this group is ranked 28th in points allowed at 25.4 points per game. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 1.8 touchdowns a game, good for 26th in the league with teams completing 62.2% of all passes, 22nd in the league. 8 times this season has the Giants defense surrendered more than 24 points in a game with teams scoring over 40 on 3 separate occasions. Last week was a perfect example of how soft the Giants defense has been this season giving up 6 big plays in Philadelphia’s 45-38 blowout victory.
The Giants struggles cannot be solely tied to their defense. Eli Manning has played Dr jekyll and Mr Hyde much of the season. In the Giants 7 victories, Manning has a QB rating of 108.8 with 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He has completed almost 3% more of his passes and has been sacked only 4 times. In the 6 losses, Manning has thrown 8 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and has been sacked 17 times, making his protection the key to each and every game. The Washington pass rush should do well in exposing Manning as a truly average quarterback in the face of constant pressure. Washington ranks 3rd in the league in sacks per game at 2.8 with rookie Brian Orakpo emerging as a legitimate pass rushing threat from the outside linebacker position with 4 sacks against the Raiders last week. In addition, the Giant’s offensive line has struggled in recent weeks giving up an average of 2.3 sacks per game, up from their 1.8 early in the season.
The New York Giants enter the game as 3 point road favorites. This season, the Giants are 5-7-1 ATS. In their last 8 games, the Giants are 1-7 ATS, but 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Washington. Washington is 6-6-1 ATS the season, but 5-0 in their last 5 games. In playing their last 12 home games, Washington is 3-9 ATS and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants.
The over/under for this game sits at 43.5. The Giants are an 8-4-1 O/U while Washington is 7-6 O/U. The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games but UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Washington. However, the total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Giants last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington. For Washington, The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington’s last 7 games but UNDER in 10 of Washington’s last 13 games at home.
Giants vs. Redskins MNF pick: Upset alert! Washington will win this game by 7 points or less. Washington will take advantage of a poor NYG secondary and make Eli look very bad with a sustained and constant pass rush to pull off the victory. The trends for the O/ U can take you wherever you want, so be careful. Looking at just Monday, we know New York gives up way too many points, Washington is getting better and better behind Jason Campbell, and the Giants, despite how bad they are, can still put up points in bunches. 43.5 is a low number so take the OVER with confidence.
About Uncle Jay