Week 1

Saints @ Packers— Last 12 Super Bowl winners also won their season opener the next season (8-2-2 vs spread). Green Bay won/covered its last four home openers, with three of the four wins by six or less points; four of their last five home openers stayed under the total. Pack is 9-5-1 as home favorite last two years. Saints are 4-8-1 as road underdogs last four years. New Orleans won five of last six season openers- they’ve covered seven of last ten as an underdog in their first road game of the season. Saints are 2-8 in Wisconsin, 1-2 at Lambeau (Pack used to play some home games in Milwaukee). Adding Sproles for Bush gives Saints big upgrade at RB. Home favorites from NFC North are 16-10-1 in non-divisional games the last two years.

Steelers @ Ravens— Last 12 Super Bowl losers are 0-12 vs spread in their season opener the next season (2-10 SU). Baltimore won its last six home openers (over 4-1-1). Just second time in last nine years Steelers opened on road; since 1988, they’re 4-4 SU in Week 1 road openers, but they did start 1-0 last four years (all at home), allowing only 13.3 ppg. Pittsburgh won two of last three visits here, with only loss in OT; they’re 6-2 in last eight series games, beating Ravens in playoffs two of last three years. Pitt covered seven of last nine as a road underdog; since ’04, they’re 11-2 vs spread as dog of 3 or less points. Baltimore covered just two of last nine as divisional home favorite. Five of last six Steeler road openers stayed under total; over is 4-1-1 in Baltimore’s last six home openers.

Lions @ Buccaneers—Road team is 24-6-2 vs spread in Bucs’ games last two years, with Tampa Bay 3-12-1 in last 16 home games (2-2-1 as favorite, 1-10 as dog). Tampa Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, with five of last seven decided by 4 or less points; Lions are 2-3 in last five visits here, winning 23-20 in OT LY. Detroit is 12-9-2 as road underdog last three years. Bucs won three of last four home openers, allowing 14 or less points in all three wins- under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home openers. Detroit is 2-8 in last ten road openers (3-7 vs spread), with five of last six going over total. Last four years, Bucs are 11-7-1 as single digit favorite. Home favorites from NFC South are 18-10-2 vs spread in non-divisional games the last two years.

Falcons @ Bears – Atlanta lost last four road openers, scoring 7.8 ppg; they lost opener 15-9 in Pittsburgh LY even though Big Ben didn’t play for Steelers. Since 2005, Falcons are 6-2 as non-divisional road favorite. Home side won seven of last nine in series; Atlanta lost last five visits here, dropping 6-0/16-3 decisions in last two. Chicago won five of last six home openers, with three of last four staying under total. Falcons’ last win here was 1983- their last seven road openers stayed under the total. Since ’08, road favorites from AFC South are 11-8-1 in non-divisional games. Home dogs from NFC North are 9-5 in non-divisional games the last two years. Loss of veteran C Kreutz to Saints is big blow for Chicago OL.

Bills @ Chiefs— Cassel practiced Monday, is now expected to play. Chiefs are 1-5-1 as non-divisional home favorite since ’07; over last five years, NFC West home favorites (excluding San Diego) are 8-26-1 vs spread outside their division. Over last three years, AFC East road dogs are 24-14 vs spread as road underdogs in non-divisional games. Bills are 15-9 vs spread on road the last three years (11-8 as road dog), 6-2 vs spread in last nine road openers. Since 1993, under is 16-1-1 in Kansas City home openers, with last nine staying under total; Chiefs are just 4-7 SU in last 11 home openers, 2-5-1 vs spread as favorite in home openers. Buffalo won three of last four in series, losing 13-10 in OT LY; three of last four series totals were 26 or less. Teams split their last six meetings here. Six of Buffalo’s last seven road openers stayed under total.

Colts @ Texans— Looking like Manning isn’t playing here, which will send spread skyward. Now or never for Gary Kubiak, with Wade Phillips expected to improve defense, and Indy crippled with either Collins/Painter trying to do the impossible and replace #18. Last two years, home favorites are 9-6 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, with Texans covering four of last six divisional home games. Since 2006, Colts are 9-3 as an underdog. Indy won nine of last 11 road openers, losing 34-24 (-1.5) here LY, just second win for Texans in 18 series games. Colts are 7-2 in nine visits here, with average total in last six, 55.2. Nine of last ten series totals were 47+. Since 1988, Colts are 1-8-1 vs spread as underdog in their road opener.

Eagles @ Rams— Philly is just 3-3 in last six season openers, with last three road openers going over total; they’re 19-13 vs spread on road last four years, 7-4 in last 11 tries as road favorite. Rams lost last four home openers, are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine; they’re 21-34 as underdogs last four years. Since 2007, St Louis is 7-14 as non-divisional home dog, but were 3-2 LY. Eagles won three of last four series games, with average total 28.5. St Louis is running new offense with increased depth at RB; Eagles are running new defense. Interesting to see if Bradford is allowed to throw downfield more in new offense.

Bengals @ Browns— Losing Palmer at QB, replacing him with rookie Dalton is a uniquely Bengal-like move, refusing to trade the vet QB, even though a trade would help them recoup some value. Cleveland is 1-11 in home openers, losing last six (scored 14 or less points in five of those six)- they’re 0-3 vs spread as a favorite in home openers, 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, but Browns do seem to be more harmonious with Holmgren running franchise and young QB McCoy showing promise under center. Cincinnati won last four Battles of Ohio, with three of four decided by three or less points; Bengals are 5-3 in last eight visits here, but 13-19 vs spread on road the last four years.

Titans @ Jaguars— Jacksonville is just 8-16 vs spread at home last three years, amid rumors team could be moving to LA; they’re 4-6 in last ten tries as divisional home favorite. New coach, new QB for Tennessee squad that covered last four season openers, winning three of last four road openers. Titans are 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four visits here- they covered five of last six as AFC South road dog. Titans’ last four series wins were all by 7+ points. Jaguars are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen openers, 8-3 in last 11 home openers, but they’ve lost three of last four SU. Under is 10-5-1 in Jaguar home openers, 12-2 in Titans’ last 14 road openers.

Giants @ Redskins—Did any NFL team have worse offseason than Giants, who lost key players without adding anyone of substance, except former 49er C Baas? That said, Big Blue is 9-1 in last ten series games, winning last six in row, holding Redskins to 14 or less points in five of those six games. Giants won their last five visits here by average score of 29-16- they scored 30+ points in four of last five road openers, but haven’t won a Week 1 road game since ’99 in Tampa (0-3 since). Since ’88, Giants are 8-2 vs spread as Week 1 favorite- their last seven road openers went over the total. Redskins won eight of last nine home openers, winning last four; seven of last eight stayed under total (only one of eight totals went over 35).

Panthers @ Cardinals- Arizona traded for Kolb in July, Carolina has a new head coach and three suspects at QB, with rookie Newton probably the best choice, so hard to imagine lot of great offense here. Carolina is 8-3 in last 11 series games, winning last seven in regular season, including last four visits to desert. Redbirds won four of last five home openers, as new domed stadium has given them home field edge at long last, but they’re just 3-7 as home favorite last two years. Very tough to lay points in Week 1 after chaotic offseason, but coaching change of Fox to Rivera doesn’t help the Panthers at all. Four of last five Arizona home openers went over total. Panthers lost six of last eight openers, but both wins were on road.

Seahawks @ 49ers—Both teams have huge questions at QB; can Jackson be the man in Seattle, and just who is the man by the Bay? Home side won last four series games, with Seattle 11-5 in last 16 overall, despite losing last two visits here, 23-10/40-21. 49ers are 10-4-2 as home favorite since ’08; Seattle is 6-19 as road underdog since ’07. Carroll-Harbaugh rivalry figures to intensify here; Harbaugh’s Stanford team once upset Carroll’s Trojans as 42-point underdog in one of biggest college upsets ever. 49ers won five of last six home openers; they’re 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight, with four of last five staying under. Seattle lost its last four road openers, with last three losses by 24-13-17 points; they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six. Home favorites are 18-10 vs spread in NFC West divisional games the last four seasons.

Vikings @ Chargers— Would you lay 8.5 points with Norv Turner in September? Didn’t think so. Expect Minnesota to try and pound ball with Adrian Peterson, taking pressure off new QB McNabb. Vikings are 5-8-1 as road dogs last three years; since 2005, they’re 8-15-1 vs AFC teams. Since ’06, Chargers are 24-14-1 as home favorite, 12-6-1 in last 19 vs non-divisional foes; they’re 17-10-1 vs NFC teams last six years. Under is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven road openers, but seven of Chargers’ last eight home openers went over. Vikings lost two of three visits here, with only win 33-31 thirty years ago.

Cowboys @ Jets— Since 1992, Gang Green is 3-16 vs spread in home openers, losing four of last five SU, scoring average of 13.8 ppg in last six- they’re 2-7 in last nine tries as a favorite in home openers. Over last four years, Jets are 8-15-1 vs spread as home favorite (8-8 in non-division, 0-7-2 in divisional games). Since 2003, Cowboys are 12-18-2 vs AFC teams, but are 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional road dog. Dallas is 7-2 in series, winning 34-3/17-6 in last two renewals of seldom-played series; Pokes are 5-1 vs Jets here, with only loss in 1990, when they were awful. Over is 12-3 in Cowboys’ last 15 road openers. Not sure its that relevant, but Rex Ryan’s brother Rob is new defensive coordinator for Dallas.

Patriots @ Dolphins— Hard to endorse a team that got booed by its own fans during training camp practices, and I’m not talking about the Patriots. Belichick is 12-5 in last 17 series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 20+ points- average total in last six series games is 52.8. Since 2004, Pats are 26-13 vs spread as a road favorite, 14-5 vs AFC East foes. Miami lost seven of last eight home openers (0-5 vs spread in last five). Miami is 6-9 vs spread as a home dog last four years. Six of Miami’s last nine home openers went over. This is first time in six years Patriots’ first road game isn’t against the Jets.

Raiders @ Broncos— Oakland hasn’t won season opener since ’02, but they won last three visits here and waxed Broncos twice LY, 59-14/39-23; since 2003, Raiders are 29-35 vs spread on road. Denver is 12-27-1 vs spread at home last five years. Fox is terrific coach, but was awful in home openers at Carolina (1-7 vs spread in last eight, 1-6 in last seven SU); Broncos are on 11-game win streak in home openers (9-3 vs spread in last 12 Week 1 home openers). Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ last dozen road openers. Over last five years, road teams are 37-22-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Only game this week where both head coaches are in first game with this team.

Week 1

Thursday, 9/8/2011

NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY, 8:30 PM ET NBC
NEW ORLEANS: 6-0 Over Away if total is 45.5 to 49
GREEN BAY: 24-12 ATS all games

Sunday, 9/11/2011

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 59-39 ATS as underdog
BALTIMORE: 5-9 ATS at home vs. Pittsburgh

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 10-2 ATS vs. NFC
TAMPA BAY: 3-11 ATS in home games

ATLANTA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 22-11 ATS in all games
CHICAGO: 15-4 Under as underdog

BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 4-1 ATS as road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts
KANSAS CITY: 13-28 ATS vs. AFC East

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 12-4 Over in road games
HOUSTON: 5-10 ATS in home games

PHILADELPHIA at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 6-0 Over in conf road games
ST LOUIS: 1-7 ATS vs. Philadelphia

CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 26-46 ATS 1st month of season
CLEVELAND: 11-5 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 9-2 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
JACKSONVILLE: 3-6 ATS as favorite

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 12-3 Over Away 1st 2 wks of season
WASHINGTON: 10-24 ATS at home 1st month of season

CAROLINA at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-6 ATS as road dog of 7pts or less
ARIZONA: 72-46 Over on turf

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 2-13 ATS as road underdog
SAN FRANCISCO: 13-3 Over at home if total is 35.5 to 38

MINNESOTA at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 1-9 ATS as an underdog
SAN DIEGO: 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

DALLAS at NY JETS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 13-3 Over in all games
NY JETS: 4-14 ATS at home 1st 2 wks of season

Monday, 9/12/2011

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
NEW ENGLAND: 12-2 Over as favorite
MIAMI: 7-0 Over at home 1st half of season

OAKLAND at DENVER, 10:15 PM ET ESPN
OAKLAND: 29-61 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
DENVER: 82-52 Over as a home favorite