Alex Smart

Alex Smart

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS

Match Up Pick Rating Result Profit Analysis
Rockies vs Diamondbacks Rockies +114 Premium Won $114
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Freeland the Rockies starter has not lost since Aug. 1 and owns a 7-1 record and 2.69 ERA in 12 trips to the hill since the All Star break.Meanwhile, Arizonas starter Godley  has lost three straight  and has allowed13 runs - 12 earned - and 16 hits over 12 2/3 innings of non quality work  during that span for a ugly 9.23 ERA.

FREELAND is 7-0 against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) GODLEY is 2-9 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) 

Rockies are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Rockies are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Arizona.Rockies are 4-1 in Freelands last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks.

 MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or less ) (NL), in September games are 10-36 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 

Packers vs Redskins Redskins +3 -115 Premium Won $100
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Let me start by saying that NFL away teams, coming off a tie in their previous game, are 0-13 SU  L/13 times. dating back to 1988. So history does not favour the Green Bay Packers here this week in Washington. With  Green Bays super star Aaron Rodgers knee banged up and less than 100% the Packers look like weak favs in this spot.  Rodgers was sacked 4 times last week, and Im not sold on his ability to play favouring his knee which will inhibit his mobility. Also the Packers a a whole, are in a emotional  letdown situation after controlling their last game for 3 quarters before falling apart and settling for a lucky OT tie. Look for Skins defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to be ready to pressure Rodgers this Sunday . Note: Redskins coach Jay Gruden believes the key to controlling Rodgers is to bring pressure.QUOTE"

"The most important thing is that you've got to make him uncomfortable in the pocket," Gruden said. "If you give him time to move around and buy time, and find a second, third option, or fifth or sixth option because he's scrambling around, he's going to dice you up.

"The team's that have had success, which aren't very many, they pressure him, and that's the key." END QUOTE:

NFL Favorites (GREEN BAY) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 15-39 ATS in the followup dating back 35 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Washington to cover 

Duquesne vs Hawaii OVER 66 -110 Premium Lost -$110.0
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The Dukes behind  transfer quarterback from Florida Atlantic  Daniel Parr enter this game against Hawaii having scored an average of 33 points in their last three games , all of which were victories. Last season they averaged 32.3 ppg , so this is not an anomaly. Meanwhile, Hawaii plays a one way game, that features an explosive offence and a defence that is pourous to say the least. I expect Hawaii to pile up points here vs a lower tier team, but for Duquesne to fire right back in a tilt that promises to be high scoring and very entertaining. 

Play OVER 

Duquesne vs Hawaii Duquesne +29½ -110 Premium Won $100
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Army controlled time of possession last week , in their usual methodical way, via their ground attack and delivered Hawaii their first defeat of the season,(27-21) dropping them to 3-1 . The bad news is Hawaii is 0-16-1 ATS L/17 at home coming off a game where they had less than 26 minutes time of possession. Im betting all the early season travelling and the intensity and physicality of that last tilt will have the Rainbow Warriors a little tired this week,  and less than motivated as they face a lower tier team.With that said, look for the margin of victory by the Warriors to be less than expected by the lines makers.

Note: Prior to this season, the Duquesnes last game against an FBS team was in 2014, when they were very competitive facing the  Buffalo  Bulls of the MAC losing 38-28.  Duquesne has converted 53.2% of its third-down opportunities, this season ranking fifth in the FCS in that category. Hawaii has allowed 50% conversion on  third downs , with only six other teams  in the nation more futile defensively stopping this key down.  

Play on Duquesne  to cover 

Raiders vs Dolphins Raiders +3½ -115 Premium Lost -$115.0
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Miami has started  2-0 but I can't say its been very impressive. Meanwhile the Raiders despite of being 0-2 have played better in my opinion. They did not look put of place vs a powerful looking Rams team in week 1 and  than lost a heart breaker last week to Denver after blowing a 19-10 lead heading into the 4th quarter. This is a good spot for the Raiders to cover and be competitive vs a Fins team that are 2-9-1 ATS L/12 as a home favorite.

Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.Raiders are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Raiders are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in September.

Dolphins are 16-45-3 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Dolphins are 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 3.

OAKLAND is 23-9 ATS L/32 in road games after a loss by 6 or less points.MIAMI is 6-20 ATS  off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Road teams (OAKLAND) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses are 39-15 ATS L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover 

Chargers vs Rams Rams -7 +100 Premium Won $100
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The Rams were dominant last week in a 34-0 win vs Arizona, and have won their first two games convincingly and enter this game against cross town rivals the San Diego Chargers with a full head of steam that will be hard to stop. Note: Teams like the Rams that allowed no more than six first downs last game like the Rams did are 45-16-2  ATS including 9-1 ATS L/10.Since moving to LA, the Rams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points under head coach Sean McVay and get the nod to add positive numbers into those columns here today.

Chargers are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Chargers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 3.

NFL Home favorites (LA RAMS) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 27-7 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

Titans vs Jaguars OVER 39½ -110 Premium Lost -$110.0
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The Jaguars put 31 points up against a solid New England defence last week, and are now running into this tilt vs Tennessee with a boatload full of confidence and feeling ready to dominate opponents with some swagger. Both teams have some injuries on offence with RB Fourette less than 100% and  Titans QB Mariota also nursing a nagging injury. But both should play and even if they do not I'm expecting their replacements to help facilitate a fairly high scoring affair as compared to what the lines makers expect as per my power rankings output estimates suggest. The L/5 meetings in this series have all been listed with fairly low opening totals attached to them, but those meetings combined for an average combined scoring output of 54.4 ppg . It must be noted that Week Three undefeated  home chalk of  3 pts or more are 17-4 OVER L/21 and 6-0 L/6 overall. : All game 2 NFL games with a Total of less than 41 points 32-9-1 OVER L/12 seasons.

NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 32-9 OVER L/10seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play OVER 

49ers vs Chiefs UNDER 56 -110 Premium Lost -$110.0
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KC has put up some big offensive numbers so far this season, well above what their season average will be going forward in my humble opinion. Their anomaly output on offence and horrendous defensive performance have now tainted this Total. In two games they have scored 80 points and allowed 65. They scored against perceived good teams, and took a lot of blows, but everything eventually reverts back to the mean, and todays opponent does not set up to end looking for shootout especially on the road. SF despite of having a quality QB at the helm of their offence just does not inspire me to be an explosive offensive team and their defence is capable as well. With that said, his total is beatable on the under. 

The Chiefs were listed as 4.5  dogs last week vs Pittsburgh  but have gone under 11 straight times  when the line is at least five points lower than in their last game, and  have not eclipsed the Total in 14 tries at home coming off a game where they covered.The Chiefs are 0-12-1 OU   since 1996  as a favorite coming off a road win that went over the total by at least 14 points .

KANSAS CITY is 10-1 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. HC Reid is 11-0 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached in his career with a total combined average 30 ppg going on the board.

NFL Any team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a win by 6 or less points against opponent after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were score are 22-3 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NFL games with a Total of  56 or more pts have gone under 5 of the L/6 times in Week 15 or less.

Play UNDER 

Cowboys vs Seahawks Cowboys +2 -105 Premium Lost -$105.0
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Seattle has been down graded on my power rankings to lows not seen in years. Wow how the mighty have fallen. From a charts perspective Im betting the Cowboys have the edge , yes even here on the road , and most sharps I know agree with my assessments and you will see this via  line movement as well. 

DALLAS is 11-2 ATS  after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, in the first month of the season are 18-44 SU L/35 seasons. 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - off a road loss, in September games are 63-105 ATS L/35 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover 

Bears vs Cardinals OVER 38 -108 Premium Lost -$108.0
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Thanks  the Cards being shutout last week, and scoring only 6 points in their opener this game has been listed at the ridiculously low asking price of 38 on the total. I know the Cards offence has looked anemic, but they desperately need to get things going and Im betting they take some more chances and open things up a bit, which Im betting will get them a few more points the lineskaers might expect. Meanwhile, Chicago behind an improved offence should be ready to jell behind QB Trubinsky in do some damage of their own. Note:  hey allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. NFL Game 3 teams who scored 14 points or less in each of their first two games have gone OVER 10 straight times, over the last 3 seasons.  Everything points to a higher scoring game than many might expect.

The Cards have gone over 13 straight times on a natural surface  vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a road game in which they allowed their opponent to score ten-plus points more than their season-to-date average. Last season using their perimeters it must be noted that  the Cards scored 38 and 27 points on the two occasions this was in play. Meanwhile,Chicago is 18-0 OVER  as a favorite on a natural surface  off a victory when they are going against  a team that is averaging less than 5.3 yards per play and has allowed at least 1.5 sacks per game. 

NFL  team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first month of the season are78-42 OVER L/10 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

These teams have gone over in 4 straight meetings with a combined average of 55.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER  

Duquesne vs Hawaii OVER 66 -110 Lost -$110.0
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Titans vs Jaguars OVER 39½ -110 Lost -$110.0
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49ers vs Chiefs UNDER 56 -110 Lost -$110.0
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Bears vs Cardinals OVER 38 -108 Lost -$108.0
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SERVICE BIO

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.