The NY Jets have now lost three straight games since a 2-0 start as they came up short again at New England despite playing the Patriots tough most of the game. One would think this game would be a needed breather vs. the winless Dolphins, but Miami always plays the Jets tough, and the Fish are coming off of a bye week.
The Jets are (-7) favorites for this MNF contest, with the total set at 42½.
BETTING ODDS: OPEN: NY Jets -9 | CURRENT: NY Jets -7 | O/U: 42.5
1. Why Miami will cover the spread: The Dolphins have had amazing success vs. the Jets in recent seasons with the Wildcat offense, but Miami has now apparently scrapped that formation with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both gone. However, rookie running back Daniel Thomas is starting to emerge after back-to-back solid games, and the Jets run defense, which was one of the best in the NFL the last two seasons, is allowing 134.8 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush this season. Miami will cover the spread if Thomas matches his success of the last two games where he rushed for 107 and 95 yards respectively, as that would take pressure off of young quarterback Matt Moore.
The Miami defense also figures to be better against the pass here with stud cornerback Volte Davis returning after injuring his hamstring in Week 2, and Cameron Wake should be able to put pressure on Mark Sanchez given New York’s offensive line issues.
2. Why New York will cover the spread: The Jets will cover this spread if the rush defense returns to last year’s form, because if they stuff Thomas and force Miami to pass, the biggest mismatch in this contest might be the young Moore against the great Jets’ secondary headed by Darrelle Revis.
Also, the Jets should utilize LaDainian Tomlinson more both as a runner and as a receiver out of the backfield, because despite LT’s advancing age, he has looked much better than the very disappointing Shonn Greene.
3. Total Talk: We actually do think that the Dolphins will be able to establish the run with young Thomas here, as the Jets have not been able to stuff an opposing running back since Week 1 vs. Felix Jones and the Cowboys. Now while we see Miami running effectively and killing clock between the 20s, we also see them bogging down in the red zone without a true goal line back and Moore possibly overmatched.
When you also factor in that the Miami pass defense should improve this week and that the Jets have not run the ball well with Greene as the feature back, our lean on the total here would definitely be on the ‘under’.
4. Betting Trends for the game: A couple of trends about the 0-4 Dolphins here: First, all winless teams that are 0-4 or worse straight up are 63-35 ATS since 2000; second, all winless teams that are 0-4 or worse straight up and coming off a bye week are 22-3, 88.0 percent ATS since 1995!
Miami is 4-1 both straight up and ATS the last five head-to-head meetings, including 3-0 SU and ATS the last three road meetings. The kicker – NY is just 5-13 ATS its last 18 October games.