The last undefeated team in the Big XII is going to have its work cut out for it on Saturday night in Morgantown, where the West Virginia Mountaineers will host the Kansas State Wildcats looking to bounce back from last week’s dreadful defeat in Lubbock.
West Virginia might be coming off of its worst loss in over a decade, and it might now be ranked outside of the Top 15 in the nation going against a team ranked in the Top 5 in the BCS, but it is still the -3 favorite on the college football betting odds.
1. Why Kansas State will cover the spread: The Wildcats will cover the spread in this one if the defense can figure out how to at least somewhat slow down the West Virginia offense. The formula was set last week when the Texas Tech Red Raiders figured out how to get in the face of QB Geno Smith, and that’s going to be what the Wildcats have to do in this one. This is a KSU defense that got in the face of QB Landry Jones over the course of the whole game a few weeks ago in Norman, so we know that the potential is definitely there.
2. Why West Virginia will cover the spread: West Virginia will cover the spread if it isn’t a sieve defensively. It’s starting to get laughable knowing just how many points the Mountaineers are allowing this year, as they have surrendered at least 45 in three straight games and at least 34 in four of the six. This is just one of the worst defenses in the land, but if the Mountaineers can figure out how to contain QB Collin Klein and get a few stops, this will probably be an easy victory. Still, right now, what we’re seeing out of this defense is atrocious, and we’re not all that sure that there is a team in the country that couldn’t score at least 30 on WVU.
3. Total Talk: Much will be made in this one over the fact that West Virginia games this year have averaged 83.0 points per game, especially knowing that 133-point game against the Baylor Bears was just a few weeks ago. K-State can score, as this is a team that is averaging 40.8 points per game. However, the Wildcats have a legit defense as well, allowing 339.7 total yards per game and 16.5 points per game. West Virginia will almost surely become the first team this year to exceed 21 against the Wildcats defense.
4. Betting Trends for WVU/KSU: This is the first meeting of these two teams since they came together in the Big XII, so there isn’t a heck of a lot to discuss in terms of history. The Wildcats are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record, and they’ve gone on to cover six of their L/8 away from the “Little Apple”. However, the Mountaineers have covered four straight times after getting defeated the week before, and they’re 6-2 ATS the L/8 times they played off a pointspread defeat.
West Virginia 38 – Kansas State 28