Both the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide will enter this crucial Week 11 SEC West tussle fully rested and reenergized after coming off byes last week. Last we saw the HC Miles’ kids in live action, they pasted the Furman Paladins 48-16 on Homecoming. As for the defending National Champs, they cruised to the 45-10 win over the Tennessee Volunteers to cover their third straight in SEC play.
Depending on your out for this one, Alabama currently sits in the -11 to -13 range with the ‘total’ lined in the 53 to 55-point range.
OPEN: ALABAMA -10.5 | CURRENT: ALABAMA -13 | O/U: 53
1. Why ALABAMA will cover the spread: The last time these hated rivals squared off against the college football betting lines in Tuscaloosa, LSU’s defense limited the Crimson Tide to a grand total of 295 yards and forced a pair of turnovers to pull out the 9-6 overtime victory. But this year, the Tigers defense has been the club’s weak spot with it surrendering an average of 351.7 YPG and 5.2 yards per play (#40).
On top of that, the stop unit has yielded 148.4 YPG on the ground (#48) at 4.0 yards per carry (#57). That tells me that the Tide’s running game will be able to set the tone in this one, so for all you daily fantasy players out there, start your Alabama RBs! Their success will ultimately force LSU to load up the box in turn allowing QB A.J. McCarron to pick them apart through the air.
2. Why LSU will cover the spread: When the Crimson Tide ran up against the potent passing attack of Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies, the defense surrendered 464 yards passing and 5 TDs. Zach Mettenberger will no doubt be the toughest field general the Crimson Tide will have run up against since with him throwing for 2492 yards and a 19:7 TD/INT ratio. A&M’s Mike Evans torched Bama’s secondary to the tune of 279 yards and a score back in Week 3, and the Tigers possess an exceptional 1-2 WR punch in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. that should wreak havoc on an Alabama secondary without the services of Vinnie Sunseri.
3. Total Talk: The ‘under’ has cashed each of the L/4 times these programs locked horns on the college gridiron. However, LSU has cashed ‘over’ tickets in seven of its nine games played to date, and its road/neutral games have seen an average of 71.2 points get put on the board. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 4-3-1 clip in Alabama games this season, and along with going ‘over’ the closing number its L/3 times out, Bama’s played to high scorers four of the L/5 times it ran up against a +.500 opponent.
4. Betting Trends for LSU-ALABAMA: This series has long been dominated by the road team with it going 13-4-1 ATS in the L/18 meetings. In line with that dominating trend is LSU’s 6-1-1 success rate vs. the closing pointspread its L/8 quarrels with the Crimson Tide. Though Bama has given up a grand total of 26 points to its L/6 opponents, none of those teams can hold a candle to what the Tigers will pack with them offensively to Tuscaloosa.
The “Madhatter” has covered each of his L/4 following a bye, while Saban’s just 3-7 ATS following an off week. Look for this one to play against the grain of this rivalries history with Alabama squeaking out the “W” in a high scorer.
Alabama 31 – LSU 27