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Colonel John 4/1 Pyro 6/1 Z Fortune 15/1 Denis of Cork 20/1 Big Brown 3/1
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Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF The top contenders…BIG BROWN has stormed onto the scene with three wins by a combined 29 lengths, including impressive Florida Derby victory. PYRO may well have been favored if not for 10th-place finish in the Blue Grass. COLONEL JOHN, MONBA, TALE OF EKATI and GAYEGO won major prep races. How the race will be run…BIG BROWN will probably go to the lead and be joined by BOB BLACK JACK, GAYEGO and RECAPTURETHEGLORY, who will probably have no choice but to challenge him. That should soften up the pacesetter and set up for those coming off the pace, which is where most of the top contenders like to race. David Tuley's picks to win…COLONEL JOHN has an explosive turn of foot and that's what it'll take in what could be tight quarters turning for home. Only question mark is that this is his first race on traditional dirt, but California shippers seem to have adapted well to the surface.
PYRO was my top-rated colt most of the spring. Had to downgrade off Blue Grass performance, though it was mostly a glorified workout as trainer Steve Asmussen's lone goal was this race. Might be the value play if odds continue to rise as people dismiss him.
COURT VISION is one of the "wise guy" horses this week, so doubt we'll get the 20-1 on the morning line. But while most of the contenders will be stalking the pace, this deep closer could benefit if a speed duel ensues. Jockey Garrett Gomez, who has stuck with this colt, is a plus. David's long shot…Z FORTUNE has stayed under the radar during the prep racing season but is a live longshot in a race with many live longshots (nothing wrong with GAYEGO, MONBA or even the filly EIGHT BELLES). I like him, however, especially off his Arkansas Derby when he was wide throughout and still only ran down GAYEGO. Asmussen's second string could do it.
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