MLB Betting: Finding Starting Pitching Mismatches

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Mound Mis-Match



When evaluating starting pitchers for a particular game, there are certain factors that I take into account in order to make an accurate prediction. For instance, I look at how a pitcher has fared against the team he is facing over the course of the current season as well as the season before. Some pitchers just seem to struggle against certain teams and I always look to exploit that fact when possible. A left handed pitcher may go up against a team who is stocked with great right handed hitters who crush lefties. Thus, I always look at a pitcher’s win loss record and ERA against the team he is facing over the last two seasons as well as over his career.

It’s also important to figure out how well the staring pitcher fares against right handed and left handed hitting. A left handed pitcher is bound to face more righties in the line-up so I like to look at his success rate against right handed hitting. If a left hander has trouble with right handed hitters, it is quite possible that he will struggle as he is likely to face a heavy dose of right handers. Separating a pitcher’s performances is critical in trying to gauge whether he will be successful or not on the mound on a given night.

The next thing I look at when trying to find a mismatch is how well a team hits against right handed and left handed pitching. If a team is facing a righty and they have great success against right handers then I feel I have an advantage. Teams differ in how they perform against right and left handed pitchers so it is important to evaluate their batting average, runs scored, and win loss record against a particular pitcher, left or right handed.

As a handicapper, I also like to divide a team’s offensive performances against right and left handed pitchers into three categories: Overall, home and way, and last ten. Sometimes a team will be hitting the ball well against lefties or righties at the moment. Some teams hit certain pitchers better when they are at home or on the road. Yet overall is the best indicator of how a team is going to fare against a pitcher. The more games involved, the better indicator you can get on a how team stacks up against a given starting pitcher. By looking for mismatches and separating them into categories, you can find ways to win more games then you lose.




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