MLB Betting – MLB’s Best “Over” Teams
The MLB betting campaign is a bit over a third of the way complete. Today, we’re going to take a peek at the five best ‘over’ teams in the game and offer up our thoughts as to why these run producing teams continue cashing in for MLB bettors.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (38-19-2) – There really hasn’t been a team in baseball that has been more consistent in terms of pitching than the Diamondbacks. Unfortunately for Arizona bettors, the “consistency” factor has been that this squad has been just woeful on the mound. A 5.50 team ERA ranks dead last amongst the 30 teams in baseball. For a pitching staff that was supposed to be fantastic upon acquiring RHP Edwin Jackson from Detroit, the ‘over’ run has certainly been surprising. But RHP Dan Haren has a 4.83 ERA, while Jackson has a 5.38 ERA. The starting pitchers for this team have combined to allow 56 homers this year.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (32-22-4) – With 71 home runs under their belt, the Brewers have one of the best slugging teams in the bigs (#4 overall). Run production hasn’t been the problem, as a team OPS of .770 (5th), a batting average of .262 (12th), and an average of 4.84 runs per game (8th) are all incredibly respectable. However, much like Arizona, this is a pitching staff that just isn’t any good. The team has an ERA of 5.25, which ranks third to last in the bigs.
3. Chicago White Sox (31-22-4) – For a team that was expected to at least be competent offensively, it’s a surprise that the White Sox are still cashing ‘over’ tickets in spite of the fact that they are only scoring 4.16 runs per game in 2010. Since April 21st, no team in baseball has produced a better ‘over’ record for ‘total’ bettors than have the South Siders at 26-14-3. Thank 1B Paul Konerko and his MLB best 17 home runs for a good chunk of the offense on this team as well.
4. New York Yankees (31-24-3) – There aren’t many teams in baseball that can mash with the Bronx Bombers. They rank #1 in the league in runs per game (5.53), batting average (.283), and OPS (.813), and they just look like a team that can go off for five runs in any given inning. Amongst players that have at least 110 ABs, the Yanks have seven batters that are hitting at least .280 in the lineup, and the scariest thing is that that doesn’t include 1B Mark Teixeira, who is only batting .220 on the young season. ‘Over’ bettors may be in love with the Yanks all season long.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers (32-26-1) – Historically an ‘under’ team by nature, it is a bit surprising to see the Dodgers turn up on this list. None of the numbers really jump out at you to suggest that this should be a ridiculously high scoring team either offensively or in terms of pitching. A 4.75 runs per game average and a team ERA of 3.96 aren’t generally dead nuts ‘over’ figures. However, with the oddsmakers using history to set a number of ‘totals’ on this team at 7.5 or less, ‘over’ bettors are finding ways to make plenty of profit.
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