College Bowl Predictions Part 2 

Shane M. Dayton

Now we go from the lightweight bowls to the middleweights!  The first round of bowls had some good games, but the second round should be even better, featuring a lot of great teams, including some that haven’t been to the promised land in a long time (welcome back Mississippi State!).  So without further introduction, here’s the second set of bowls (10 in all) which will bring you through New Year’s Eve.

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Meineke Car Care Bowl: #25 UConn (+3) vs. Wake Forest (-3).  This could be an excellent match up.  UConn’s quarterback, Tyler Lorenzen, has played very well, taking care of the ball and making just enough plays with both his arms and his legs to lead Connecticut to a 9 win season.  The big surprise has been UConn’s defense, which aside from one disastrous game to West Virginia, has been very good this season.  Wake Forest had another solid season, though the defensive losses have shown.  Wake Forest feels right at about a 7-8 win team, but UConn seems a little over rated as a 9 win team.

Match up to watch: QB Riley Skinner vs. UConn’s pass defense
Prediction: Both teams play solid D and Wake Forest puts UConn away in the 4th

Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State (+3) vs. UCF (-3).  What most people don’t know is that the nation’s leading rusher is in this game.  RB Kevin Smith of UCF has 2,448 rushing yards and is in striking distance of Barry Sanders’ single season rushing record.  The pass offense can rack up the points, as well, making this a very dangerous team (just ask Texas, who barely escaped the upset bid).  Sylvester Croom should be a lock for SEC coach of the year, and should be seriously considered for NCAA coach of the year.  Mississippi State wasn’t a fluke—they’re a bowl caliber SEC team with a nasty rush defense and strong running game.  These kids believe they can win ugly against anyone.

Match up to watch: RB Kevin Smith vs. Mississippi State’s vaunted rush defense
Prediction: This one is a coin flip either way, but I don’t see an offensive play maker for Mississippi State, so I’m going with UCF

Alamo Bowl: Penn State (-5 ½) vs. Texas A&M (+5 ½).  Last year the Big 12 won this match up, this year the opposite is likely to take place.  Penn State had a solid ear, and this game will be JoPa’s 500th game as a coach.  Texas A&M will have Gary Darnell filling in interim until a replacement for Dennis Franchione is found.  A little bit of a mismatch there.  Both teams have athletic quarterbacks who can scramble and make plays, but Penn State has a much better defense, and Linebacker U is going to be the hardest team to run against the Aggies have faced yet.

Match up to watch: Penn State’s running game (RB’s & QB) vs. Texas A&M’s rush D
Prediction: Texas A&M tends to be overrated, and although the Big 12 is a stronger conference than the Big 10, A&M is outmatched here.  Penn State wins.

Independence Bowl: Colorado (+3 ½) vs. Alabama (-3 ½).  We could also call this the schizophrenic bowl.  Which Alabama team shows up, the one that stunned Tennessee in a dominant 41-17 win, or the one that lost every game after, including to puny Louisiana-Monroe?  Which Colorado team shows up for this game?  The one that beat Oklahoma and almost upset Kansas, or the one that got blown out by Kansas State and blew a 21-0 lead over Iowa State?  Realistically, this game probably scares a lot of gamblers to death.  Alabama has the SEC qualities of a great offensive line and steady defense, while Colorado has proved stouter than many thought they would be on defense while running a spread offense.

Match up to watch: Colorado’s D-Line vs. Alabama’s D-Line—whichever performs better, their team wins.
Prediction: I’ll take the SEC dregs over the Big 12 dregs, so Alabama wins a close one.

Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (+4) vs. Cal (-4).  First year coach Troy Calhoun has led Air Force to their first bowl game in 5 years, and this team is on fire, with the offense getting noticeably better every single week.  Cal, on the other hand, has plummeted, losing 6 of their last 7 games after being ranked #2 in the country.  Talent wise, there’s no question Cal has more talent, but will there be motivation?  How can Cal play this bad?  Do they have any pride left, or did they pack it in?

Match up to watch: RB Chad Hill vs. Cal’s battered rush D
Prediction: Cal has much more talent, but I smell a “mailed it in” mentality.  I’m taking Air Force to narrowly win in an upset.

Humanitarian Bowl: Fresno State (+4) vs. Georgia Tech (-4).  This one could be hard to pick.  Georgia Tech has the players to just line up and run it right down Fresno’s throats, but with Head Coach Chan Gailey out and this team appearing to be falling apart, are they going to be focused to salvage what is still a decent season, or does Fresno State repeat history like in 2002 and beat them once again?  There’s going to be a lot of blitzing on this one—which better work because Fresno hasn’t stopped the run all season.

Match up to watch: Tech RB Tashard Choice vs. Fresno States’ rush D
Prediction: When there’s turmoil, you play conservatively and go back to basics.  In this area, Georgia Tech’s running game should be way too much for Fresno.  Tech wins.

Sun Bowl: #21 South Florida (-6 ½) vs. Oregon (+6 ½).  The shame is, if both teams were completely healthy this would be one heck of a match up, but Dennis Dixon is so integral to that team’s offense that when he was injured they haven’t won a game since, even getting shut out.  South Florida lost 3 in a row mid season, but they were against good teams in close games, and USF has rallied back to win three in a row.  They have an exceptional front 7 on defense, and Matt Groethe is an exceptional quarterback who is only going to get better.

Match up to watch: Oregon’s running game vs. USF’s rush D
Prediction: Without Dixon, Oregon won’t be able to keep up with a very talented USF squad that should be competing for a national title in the near future.  USF wins.

Music City Bowl: Florida State (+1) vs. Kentucky (-1).  QB Andre Woodson is one of the most talented signal callers in the nation, and that Kentucky offense should be fun to watch.  They are competing against stiff competition in Florida State’s defense, which was exceptional this season, so good that maybe they’re comparable to the Florida State defenses of old…but the offense was so bad they never had a chance to stay in the top 25.  Will FSU’s offense scrap together enough to keep them in it, or will the defense’s efforts be wasted again?

Match up to watch: This is a no-brainer.  QB Andre Woodson vs. FSU’s Defense
Prediction: I almost always take defense over offense, but FSU was so bad that I’m taking the favorite, Kentucky, to pull away and win it.

Insight Bowl: Oklahoma State (-4) vs. Indiana (+4).  This bowl is on the NFL network, so 98% of us won’t be watching it, which is a shame because this should be one of the most entertaining games of the entire bowl series.  Both have explosive offenses that average around 30 points again.  Both teams have excellent quarterbacks and questionable defenses.  That makes this a fun game, and it’s good to see Indiana make their first bowl in 14 years, in honor of their deceased head coach Terry Hoeppener, who died from brain cancer right before the season began.

Match up to watch: Spread offense vs. questionable defense (applies to both teams)
Prediction: I can easily see this game going either way, but as a sucker for sports movies I’m giving the emotional edge to Indiana to edge out Oklahoma State.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl: #15 Clemson (-2 ½) vs. #23 Auburn (+2 ½).  This should also be one of the best bowl games all season.  Clemson has an explosive offense and has put together and entire solid season, as opposed to a great beginning and a late collapse, as they were known for in recent seasons.  Auburn is a tough team, with a defense that can beat the best of them (just ask Arkansas and Florida).  These teams are rivals, who have played 45 times since 1899.  This is truly a game of offense versus defense.

Match up to watch: RBs James Davis and C.J. Spiller vs. the iron curtain of Auburn’s D
Prediction: Once again,  I can easily see this going either way, but I think Clemson has enough balance to squeak by.  This one may even go to overtime, but Clemson wins and takes coach Tommy Bowden off the hot seat.  Until next season.

These are the bowls that will lead you to the New Year’s Day line ups.  This is a great mix of games that will let you enjoy some of the best players, offenses, and defenses in the country, so kick back and enjoy!