College Bowl Predictions Part 1 

Shane M. Dayton

All right, this is my favorite time of year!  Good games, opponents facing each other from other conferences in a fan pride fest of which conference is best (among the majors, my bet is on SEC as the best and Big 10 as the worst, but we’ll get to that).  There are 32 bowls involving 64 teams this season, and a lot of good match ups, along with some wood shed beatings waiting to happen.  Here’s a preview of the first eleven bowls, taking you all the way through December 28th. 

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Poinsettia Bowl: Navy (+8 1/2) vs. Utah (-8 1/2).  How does a team like Utah get favored by over a TD against a team with the 4th highest scoring offense in the country?  Simple: look at the schedule.  Navy played one of the most pansy schedules in recent memory, had more than one overtime game to pad the stats, and managed to lose to I-AA Delaware after giving up nearly 50 points to the Blue Hens.  Utah is a solid team that has a good, though not great offense, but they do have a very solid defense, and Navy’s defense is atrocious.  By the way, Utah has one of the best pass defenses in the nation, so don’t expect a lot out of the play action from Navy.

Match up to watch: Utah’s rush D vs. Navy’s Triple Option.
Prediction: Utah’s offense is good enough to hang 40 on Navy, and the defense is stout.  Utah wins straight up against a Navy team that won’t be able to catch up.

New Orleans Bowl: Florida Atlantic (-3) vs. Memphis (+3).  On paper these teams look like clones.  The Memphis Tigers are 50th in scoring, averaging 29.4 pts a game. The Florida Atlantic Owls are 49th with 30.2 points a game.  On paper the defenses look equally mediocre to one another.  Florida Atlantic gives up 4.8 yards a carry on average, while Memphis gives up 5.2.  Memphis gives up 229 passing yards a game while Florida Atlantic gives up 237.  It's going to be a shoot out, and don’t be surprised to see around 70 points in this game.  This, however, is deceptive.  Look at the schedules and you’ll see that Florida Atlantic’s 5th toughest opponent (Troy State) may be stronger than anyone Memphis played all year.  And oh yeah, those games against Florida, Kentucky, and South Florida probably didn’t help Atlantic’s stats.

Match up to watch: Both defenses.  Someone has to make a play.
Prediction: Florida Atlantic is better than their numbers, and played tougher opponents.  They will make the most of their opportunity and beat Memphis.

Papajohns.com Bowl: Southern Miss (+11) vs. Cincinnati (-11).  This is the 2nd biggest point spread of any bowl, and this game looks all Cincinnati.  Southern Miss forcing out coach Jeff Bower was one of the most bone headed moves in recent memory.  While the turmoil created by the “resignation” of the long time coach swirls around an okay team, Cincinnati had nine victories, and they have one of the best offenses in the country, and one of the best turnover based defenses.  This is a bad mismatch.

Match up to watch: Southern Miss RB Damion Fletcher vs. Cincinnati front 7
Prediction: This is going to be ugly for the Eagles, as Cincinnati wins big

New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico (-3) vs. Nevada (+3).  Needless to say, this is the epitome of a home game for a bowl team.  This is also the best shot for an early upset.  Nevada has played much stiffer competition than New Mexico, with 5 of 6 losses to bowl teams.  Nevada can score.  They hung 67 on Boise State.  New Mexico has a solid defense, but not a great offense.  If Nevada can make this a shoot out, the game is theirs.  New Mexico wants turnovers early to keep the home crowd in it.

Match up to watch: Nevada spread offense vs. New Mexico’s pass defense
Prediction: Nevada pulls the upset in a fairly close one, pulling away in the 4th quarter

Las Vegas Bowl: UCLA (+6) vs. BYU (-6).  One of the main rules of betting bowls is shy away from teams in a coaching change.  Not only did UCLA fire their coach, but he won’t even coach the bowl game.  UCLA is solid, but not great.  BYU defeated a much more talented Oregon team last year, and have a stud RB to go with their excellent QB.  UCLA’s defense needs to bring its A game, or things will get ugly fast.

Match up to watch: UCLA’s defense vs. BYU spread (run and pass)
Prediction: BYU beats the Pac-10 again

Hawaii Bowl: Boise State (-10 ½) vs. East Carolina (+10 ½).  The preview on this game is simple.  Boise State is 5th in the nation in scoring, ECU is bottom ¼ in total defense and gives up over 5 yards a carry.  And Boise State is also 20th in passing now.  That’s why they won 10 games.  That should about cover it.

Match up to watch: Boise State offense vs. any ECU defender who can slow them down
Prediction: Boise State big time.

Motor City Bowl: Purdue (-8 ½) vs. Central Michigan (+8 ½).  These two teams played earlier in the season and Purdue won by 20.  Purdue has lost 3 of their last 4 games, while Central Michigan has been on a roll.  That said, Central Michigan had Clemson put up 70 points on them, and aside from a good dual threat quarterback, Purdue has more talent at every position.  This team will be too much for the Chippewas to handle.

Match up to watch: QB Dan LeFevour vs. Purdue’s defense
Prediction: Purdue by as much as the first time

Holiday Bowl: Arizona State (+1 ½) vs. Texas (-1 ½).  This should be one of the best bowl games of the year, and it’s going to be a shoot out.  Texas misses Gene Chizik, as they have a lot of talent on defense, but not a great defense, not like normal.  Colt McCoy can move that offense, and he’ll be dueling with the Sun Devils’ Rudy Carpenter.  These are two great offenses with two great quarterbacks and two great head coaches.  This should be a fantastic game to watch.

Match up to watch: QB Colt McCoy vs. QB Rudy Carpenter, best gun slinger wins.
Prediction: This one is a toss up, but I’ll take Arizona State edging out Texas.  I’m afraid of Texas showing up flat, like they did last year.

Champs Sports Bowl: Michigan State (+3 ½) vs. Boston College (-3 ½).  This game, more than any other, may measure how good the middle of the Big Ten actually is.  Michigan State is a fantastic running team that has scored over 30 TD on the ground.  They have a fairly solid middle of the road defense.  Boston College has one of the best rush defenses in the country, and future NFL QB Matt Ryan.  Running room is going to be hard to find, but Michigan State MUST run effectively early and keep Ryan off the field to win this game.

Match up to watch: Michigan State rushing offense vs. Boston College rush defense
Prediction: Michigan State might be able to run eventually, but Ryan will put up enough points before the D breaks down to hold off the Spartans.  Boston College wins a good game.

Texas Bowl: Houston (+4) vs. TCU (-4).  Since this bowl is in Houston you have to give them home field advantage.  Houston is renowned for its spread offense, which is solid though not spectacular this year.  They score about 10 points a game more than the horned frogs, but they also give up 10 points a game more.  TCU is solid on defense, but not as good as they usually are.  There is no major offensive playmaker to help them out, either.  This is one of the weakest TCU teams in years, but the same can be said of Houston.

Match up to watch: Houston’s defense vs. TCU’s running game
Prediction: TCU wins a close game by overpowering Houston in the 4th.

Emerald Bowl: Oregon State (-4 ½) vs. Maryland (+4 ½).  I’m actually really surprised this point spread is as close as it is, which makes me wonder if the bookies know something I don’t.  Maryland snuck into a bowl, beating North Carolina State in the last game of the season.  They are a heavy running team that has power to convert short yardage and at the goal line—but they don’t have a high yards per carry average.  This offense is two grinding running backs with little break away.  Oregon State is one of the top three run defenses in the entire country, and has beaten better teams than Maryland has.  It’s hard to see Oregon State “lighting up” anyone, but I think Maryland would have to fight like crazy to put up 21 pts.

Match up to watch: Maryland’s power running game vs. Oregon State rush defense
Prediction: Oregon State overpowers them and wins fairly easily

These are the first eleven bowl games.  Enjoy the good shows, and the next two articles filled with previews will follow shortly.

College Bowl Predictions Part 2 CLICK HERE