Week 4 Must Bet Games! 

by Shane M. Dayton

3 High Action Games to Bet Week 4: This is a weekend that has some excellent match-ups.  As an added bonus, the Friday night NCAA game is a dandy, setting the stage for the rest of the weekend.  For the must bet games this week, let’s start with that Friday game...

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This Friday night game pits two top 25 teams against one another, and two conference opponents, at that.  With Louisville unable to stop anyone, the winner of this game has an excellent chance at winning the Big East, with Rutgers and Cincinnati as the last Big East hurdles.

Why West Virginia is going to run all over them: This is a revenge game.  South Florida ended their national title dreams last season by beating them in Morgantown.  The Mountaineers aren’t happy, and they’ve been waiting an entire year to get even.  Now that South Florida is ranked and have their own aspirations, an upset here will be all the sweeter.  Pat White and Steve Slaton lead one of the most unstoppable offenses in the country, and I can guarantee they’re not overlooking South Florida this year.  This is the breakout game West Virginia has been waiting for.

Why South Florida is going to pull the upset: South Florida went to Morgantown and pulled the upset last year.  This year the game is down in the swamp, in South Florida’s own home field.  Matt Grothe was spectacular last year, and has only looked better this year, even being compared by one Big East coach to Joe Montana.  The Bulls are hungry and confident they can win this game.  They have one of the best coaches in all of college football, and that unstoppable West Virginia offense?  There have been times where it looked very down to Earth, and a slow start will spell doom for them.  After how well South Florida has played, how can you bet against them?

Detroit took a beating and still needs to prove they’re a legitimate potential wild card team, and that offense needs to change yards into more points.  Chicago is a strong defensive team that has taken a beating.  Grossman is yanked and Griese is in.  Griese may not be a star, but he is a capable starter, and a competent offense will help out a defense.  Putting Detroit at 2-2 gets the Bears back on track, while a 1-3 start (especially with the way the Packers are playing) could bury them.

Why Chicago gets back on track: Grossman was terrible.  And even that may be giving too much credit.  Chicago’s defense isn’t as bad as it looks, but it keeps getting put in bad positions and doesn’t get enough rest.  Having Griese in not only adds 10 or more points to what you can expect from the offense, but the additional rest and lack of turnovers will help out an already strong defense.  Said defense also beats the crap out of Kitna, who has seen plenty of pressure this season.  In a do or die situation, the Bears rally and keep themselves in the NFC North hunt. 

Why Detroit will bury the Bears: The Silverdome can be loud, and the turf will help that speedy Mike Martz offense.  In addition, the Bears defense has several injuries, and Adam Archuleta is not a cover safety.  Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson can challenge any starting corners, so who the heck is going to even slow down Mike Furrey or Shaun McDonald?   With half the starting defense out, the Bears are in trouble, and Cedric Benson has yet to establish himself while the Bears receivers don’t offer enough help to make Brian Griese the answer.  In possibly an ugly game, the Lions will edge them out.  There’s also the motivation of being a dog at home.

Green Bay (3-0) at Minnesota (1-2):

Green Bay is one of the surprise teams of the NFL, and they seem for real.  A top ten (possibly top five) defense, along with Favre looking as good as any point in his career—and with far fewer dropped passes than usual, the offense is getting it done.  Minnesota lost a close one after Jackson had four turnovers, otherwise they would be 2-1.  This is still an exceptional defense that has a chance to carry this team to 8-8 as Peterson hits his full stride.

Why Green Bay will roll to 4-0: Tavaris Jackson has one TD to five INT. Green Bay has one of the best defenses in the NFL, including one of the best CB tandems.  Favre looks like the Favre of old with a 5 TD to 2 INT ratio, and back to completing over 60% of his passes.  McCarthy abandoned a worthless running game that doesn’t have a chance, replacing it with short passes that are working great.  Minnesota’s strength is run defense, and Green Bay is going to skip this entirely, putting the Vikes at a serious disadvantage.  The old QB is one of the best who has ever played, and they’re hungry to grab a large lead in the division race.  Oh, and Favre has been great in the Metradome in recent years.

Why Minnesota pulls the shocker: Green Bay’s offensive line has not been strong at all, at Minnesota’s defensive line is going to give them complete fits.  Especially since they all know the pass is coming, they are going to make Favre miserable, and FS Darren Sharper knows how Favre plays.  One INT for a TD may be enough to win a defensive game.  It’s at Minnesota, and it’s a great chance to make a statement and get back on track.  Oh, yeah, Minnesota’s one convincing win was at home.