A lot of handicappers, even professionals, steer clear of NFL Pre-Season games.  Most NFL bettors feel that pre-season games are just to unpredictable. However, the biggest mistake sports bettors make during the NFL Pre-Season is using the same methods of handicapping a regular season game to handicap an exhibition game.

In order to beat the sportbooks in the NFL Pre-Season, the first thing you have to understand is that regular season and exhibition games are two completely different animals. One major betting factor is the head coach’s motivation towards pre-season games.  His job is not to win the pre-season game, but to get ready to win games when the real season begins.  Therefore, he is likely to focus on the team’s weaknesses rather than its strengths.  A bad rushing team will focus on improving yards per carry and offensive line chemistry.  A poor passing team is likely to going to pass the ball more in order to foster a stronger relationship between QB’s and WR’s.  The goal is improvement, not winning.

Statistics can be used to handicap the NFL Pre-Season, but in an entirely different way than how they are used in the regular season.  Poor statistics in a certain area like pass defense or run defense is an indicator that a coach may use a lot of different players in either the defensive line or the secondary in order to find the best blend players who can improve his team ASAP.  A dominant offensive team with an established running back, QB or WR’s is not going to risk an injury to one of their star players.  Remember, the goal is to improve in the weak areas and survive the pre-season with out major injuries.

One situation that I have found to be very profitable in the NFL Pre-Season is when a coach is trying to pick between two quarterbacks to be his starter.  What this means is that two quality quarterbacks are going to play most of the game with the rest of the starting offense to give them an equal opportunity to earn the number 1 spot. A few examples of this situation for the 2010 NFL Pre-Season would be in Arizona (Leinart vs. Derek Anderson), Philly (Kolb vs. Vick), and Buffalo (Edwards vs. Fitzpatrick). Obviously, Leinart and Kolb are the #1 QB’s, but their positions are certainly not set in stone.

Another situation that I bet against are teams with a bad offensive line returning from the previous season.  They are likely going to be rotating a lot of players, particularly rookies in and out of the ball game in order to find the best personnel.  Most teams with quality skilled players at the quarterback and running back position are not going to be on the field very long behind a revolving door of offensive lineman. Thus becoming a great bet against opportunity for any pre-season NFL bettor.