NFL Upset Picks: How ‘bout dem Cowboys…as outright dogs!
We went 1-2 with our Week 2 NFL Upset selections, but we broke exactly even for the week, as it was a nice juicy +200 winner with the Dolphins over the Vikings!
We have three more upset calls for Week 3, highlighted by the Lone Star State battle:
UPSET #1: Dallas Cowboys (+3) +120 over Houston Texans
This is a must-win game for the Cowboys at 0-2, and if they are as good as everyone thought they were entering this season, they should come through with flying colors this week. The Texans should feel somewhat content at 2-0, and losing this non-conference game, the least important type of game in terms of tiebreakers, would really not do too much harm to their hopes of making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Dallas actually had a chance to win each of their first two games, and they will not let this one slip away if it is close late. A couple of notable trends here are that playoff teams from the prior year that start 0-2 are 63.3 percent in Week 3 since 2003, and home favorites coming off of road wins by three points or less (Texans) are 21-46 ATS since 2000. With this spread so small and Dallas in desperation mode, we look for a straight up win here.
UPSET #2: Tennessee Titans (+3) +145 over New York Giants
These teams are both coming off of losses, but the difference is that the Giants could do nothing right in a blowout loss in Indianapolis while the Titans outgained Pittsburgh by over 100 yards in an eight-point loss only to be done in by seven turnovers, an 85-yard touchdown run by Chris Johnson being called back by a penalty, and a Steelers’ return for a touchdown on the opening kick-off. Tennessee easily has the superior defense in this matchup, and believe it or not, the Giants were actually very high for their Manning Bowl matchup (although you wouldn’t know by their performance) and they may have a difficult time getting motivated for another non-conference foe this week. Also, Chris Johnson should run wild here after having his 12-game 100-yard streak snapped thanks to that penalty.
UPSET #3: Seattle Seahawks (5.5) +210 over San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have always been slow starters under Norv Turner, and their huge win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week was gift wrapped by a career high four interceptions by David Garrard. Sure, they will get things sorted out eventually as they always do, but they are simply not there yet. San Diego still has offensive line issues and now their stud rookie running back Ryan Mathews is hurt too. No matter who starts at running back though, the Seattle defense has done a great job shutting down Frank Gore and Knowshon Moreno the first two weeks. On top of all that, Seattle is always a tough place to play, as even in their lost season of a year ago, the Seahawks were still 5-3 ATS at home. Look for them to go one better here and spring their second outright home upset under Pete Carroll.