We went 1-2 with our Week 5 NFL upset calls, winning with only the Dolphins +165 over Cincinnati. We just missed going 2-1 as Washington fell to Atlanta 24-17 in a game effort after Robert Griffin III was forced out of the game with a concussion. Let’s see if we can squeeze out at least two outright upsets in Week 6.
UPSET #1: Detroit Lions (+4½) +180 over Philadelphia Eagles – This is a huge game for the 1-3 Lions as this is a team that can ill afford another loss, and it has had two weeks to prepare for the Eagles with a bye last week. Detroit also got healthier during that time, as safety Louis Delmas is set to make his 2012 debut and give the Lions’ secondary a boost and defensive end Cliff Avril is now fully healthy after being forced to leave a home loss to Minnesota two weeks ago with a back injury. And best of all (no pun intended), running back Jahvid Best could be activated off of PUP if he passes his concussion tests.
The Eagles are still one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and they now have 14 turnovers in five games with Michael Vick personally accounting for 11 of them after losing two more fumbles last week in Pittsburgh.
UPSET #2: Indianapolis Colts (+3) +150 over New York Jets – Both these teams are coming off of very emotional games, but the Jets are the team playing on a short week, and all of their efforts went for naught in a Monday night 23-17 loss to the Texans. The Jets were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that loss, and keep in mind that they scored on a kick-off return to make the score cosmetically closer, so the offense continues to struggle.
The Colts rallied to stun the Green Bay Packers 30-27 in their first game after Coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia, and while they too figure to have an emotional letdown, they also have a legitimate offense. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in passing offense as Andrew Luck is the real deal and Reggie Wayne seems reborn now that the Colts are moving him all over the formation, which is something they never did in the past. Also, Vick Ballard has a chance to break through vs. the Jets’ 31st ranked run defense that’s allowed a lousy 4.9 yards per carry.
UPSET #3: Kansas City Chiefs (+3) +160 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Yes the Chiefs were involved in one of the ugliest games ever last week in a 9-6 loss to the Ravens in a contest where no touchdowns were scored, while the Buccaneers are coming off of a bye. However, we actually feel that the Chiefs actually have more talent here. The Chiefs have the leading rusher in the NFL in Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is 12th in the league in receiving yards.
As we have been saying all year long, Kansas City is just a quarterback away from being a very dangerous team, and you cannot knock the play of its defense last week. The Chiefs should have an easier time shutting down the Tampa Bay offense, bye or no bye, as the Buccaneers rank 30th in the NFL in total offense with just 276.0 total yards per game.