We went 1-2 with our Week 6 NFL upset calls, winning with only the Lions +180 over Philadelphia for a small -0.20 loss on the week. Our plays were also 1-2 ATS as the Colts and Chiefs never showed up. Let’s shoot for at least two winning straight up upset calls in Week 7.
UPSET #1: Cleveland Browns (+3) +150 over Indianapolis Colts – Reality set in for the Colts last week after they rode the emotion of winning one for Coach Chuck Pagano while upsetting the Green Bay Packers the previous week, as they made Shonn Greene look like a good NFL running back in a 35-9 blowout loss to the Jets. The Browns finally won their first game of the year 34-24 over the Bengals, so can they now make it two in a row? We see no reason why not considering this matchup. Granted Trent Richardson left that win with a rib injury, but it has not been deemed serious. Montario Hardesty ran well after replacing him anyway, and Cleveland is facing a 29th ranked Colts’ rushing defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry.
Also, believe it or not Cleveland ranks a respectable 16th in passing offense as Brandon Weeden has been fine since a dreadful opening week. On defense, Joe Haden is back and healthy in the Browns’ defensive backfield and he had an interception last week. He is capable of taking away half the field vs. Andrew Luck.
UPSET #2: Baltimore Ravens (+6½) +250 over Houston Texans – This line really shot up after it was announced that Ray Lewis was out for the season, to which we much respectfully ask “Why?” It is not as if Lewis was the difference maker he used to be anyway regardless of the great physical shape he was in. We simply cannot pass on the line value here as the Texans showed last week that they are not as imposing when not playing with a lead as they had in each of their previous games.
In case you have not noticed, the Ravens have gone to a hurry-up offense this year, and they have done so while keeping Ray Rice involved in the running game, resulting in Baltimore ranking ninth in the NFL in scoring (26.8 points per game) and eighth in total offense (385.0 yards per contest). The Ravens are fully capable of getting a quick lead just like the Packers did and forcing Houston to play catch-up again.
UPSET #3: Jacksonville Jaguars (+4½) +190 over Oakland Raiders – The Raiders almost pulled off one of the biggest shockers of the year last week when they fell just short of upsetting the undefeated Falcons, losing 23-20 on a last-second field goal. Losing such a heartbreaker puts them in a letdown spot vs. a lesser opponent here, and Oakland was coming off a bye and had two weeks to prepare for Atlanta.
Now it is the Jaguars that are coming off the bye, so they have had time to figure out how to best utilize Maurice Jones-Drew vs. an Oakland team that still ranks just 24th in total defense despite last week’s great effort. Oakland is also totally unreliable as a favorite, going a dismal 4-16 ATS in the last 20 tries while going 6-14 straight up in those games!