Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards 2014


Over the course of the last few seasons, there have been a number of quarterbacks who have really put up phenomenal numbers the likes of which couldn’t have even been fathomed two decades ago. This year, there are a few who could end up throwing for the most yards in the league, and we’re breaking down the odds on the most likely candidates to do just that.

Peyton Manning (+300) – After throwing for nearly 5,500 yards last season, Manning has to be a tremendous candidate to get to 5,000 yards once again. That being said, he’s also 38 years old and is going to have to break in at least one new receiver this year, as WR Eric Decker has moved on via free agency. It would take a fool to think that Manning wouldn’t lead the league in passing if he was to stay healthy this year, though at 38, that’s always a big cause for concern.

Drew Brees (+400) – Brees is probably the best bet of this bunch. Drafting WR Brandin Cooks out of Oregon State is only going to make this offense all the more explosive this year, especially if the TE Jimmy Graham deal ultimately gets done. Brees too, is getting up there in age at 35 years old, and that has to also be a concern. However, if you’re looking for consistency, this is the bet to make. Brees threw for 5,162 yards last season, and that was his lowest total in a year in any of his last three campaigns.

Aaron Rodgers (+600) – Rodgers was hurt for a good chunk of last season with a collarbone injury, but even when he was on the field, he didn’t strike us as a man who was going to set the world on fire with his passing yardage totals. There is no doubt that Rodgers can throw for 400 yards in a game when he needs to, but unlike Manning and Brees, Green Bay at least threatens the opposition with a running game. RB Eddie Lacy is going to take more touches now than Rodgers was stuck facing in the past, and that’s going to limit his abilities to throw for 5,000 yards this year.

Matthew Stafford (+700) – With TE Eric Ebron and WR Golden Tate in the fold, Stafford finally has a full set of receivers at his disposal to complement WR Calvin Johnson. It could mean huge things for Megatron, but even if it doesn’t, there will be openings all over the field. Stafford also was helped by the presence of RB Reggie Bush and RB Joique Bell, both of which were big enough threats on the ground to be dangerous, yet were also great pass catchers out of the backfield. It wasn’t a mistake that Stafford threw for 4,650 yards last season, and we have to think that he has a chance to get to 5,000 once again this year.

Tom Brady (+1000) – Rounding out the top five favorites is Brady. Much has been made about the fact that these wide receivers are garbage, and though they are, the future Hall of Famer still threw for 4,343 yards last season. TE Rob Gronkowski should be over all of his ailments and be able to help out in the middle of the field, and WR Aaron Dobson and WR Kenbrell Thompkins should be better in their second season as pros. Brady’s running game has been used a lot more of late, but when you look at those passing totals from last season, you can’t discount Brady.

Who is favored to lead NFL in Passing?

Peyton Manning +300
Drew Brees +400
Aaron Rodgers +600
Matthew Stafford +700
Tom Brady +1000
Matt Ryan +1500
Andrew Luck +1800
Tony Romo +2000
Jay Cutler +2000
Philip Rivers +2000
Nick Foles +2500
Eli Manning +3000
Robert Griffin III +7500
Ryan Fitzpatrick +10000
Russell Wilson +10000
EJ Manuel +10000
Sam Bradford +10000
Ryan Tannehill +10000
Joe Flacco +10000
Josh McCown +10000
Ben Roethlisberger +15000
Andy Dalton +15000
Carson Palmer +15000
Matt Schaub +15000
Colin Kaepernick +20000
Jake Locker +20000
Cam Newton +20000
Teddy Bridgewater +20000
Johnny Manziel +20000
Alex Smith +25000
Chad Henne +50000
Geno Smith +50000
Blake Bortles +100000