Odds To Win AFC East Division 2014
Odds to Win the 2014 AFC East
– New England Patriots -275
– Miami Dolphins +600
– New York Jets +650
– Buffalo Bills +850
AFC East Teams Over-Under Win Totals:
– New England Patriots Over-Under 11 wins
– Miami Dolphins Over-Under 7.5 wins
– New York Jets +650 Over-Under 7 wins
– Buffalo Bills +850 Over-Under 6.5 wins
Based on the odds and the general perception in the AFC East, everyone is already giving this division to the New England Patriots again and for good reason. New England is the best team in this division by far on paper at least and given their history and depth, there shouldn’t be too many ways they come up short in their hunt for another division title (Brady getting injured would be one). But New England’s season win total is set at 10.5 with the ‘over’ listed at -195 and that’s way too much juice to pay for any team to win 11+ contests. I’m not about to grab the ‘under’ at +160 simply because there is value though, but if you have already been leaning that way I would not be opposed. Instead, it’s two other teams from this division that I believe present better betting opportunities.
Play #1: Miami Dolphins Over 8 wins (+130)
New England may be the front-runner again in this division but they will see some better competition this season from their rivals. The best of those three will be this Dolphins team as Miami aims to get back into the playoffs for the first time in a few seasons. It will be important for Miami to come out of the gates strong with a home game against New England to start the season and a trip up to Buffalo in Week 2. Two wins there and the Dolphins will be sitting in first place before they take on the Chiefs and Raiders and could end up being 4-0 SU when they reach their bye week in Week 5.
The schedule gets much tougher for the Dolphins later on with the NFC North and AFC West on tap fro everyone in this division, but with three of their final four at home against very beatable opponents (Baltimore, Minnesota, NYJ), Miami just has to squeak out a .500 mark or so during that tough middle stretch to eclipse this number.
Miami brought in RB Knowshon Moreno to add depth to their tailback position and with some talented deep threats at receiver, this team will be able to spread opponents out. Miami will be a run-first, defensive-minded football team and when you play that style and execute well the wins will follow. The +130 payout isn’t bad either for a team that just has to be .500 for a push.
Play #2: New York Jets Under 7 wins (+125)
I was hoping to see this number at 7.5, but given the ‘over’ 7 is favored at -155 I would not be surprised to see it climb there before Week 1. New York is a team that’s still a mess and won’t be able to reach the .500 mark which is why I have no problem taking the plus money here even with the potential for a push.
I mentioned earlier that everyone in the AFC East has to deal with NFC North and AFC West teams and that spells disaster for the Jets. QB Geno Smith is about as inconsistent as they get and although they went out and brought in Michael Vick and RB Chris Johnson this off-season, both of those players have already played their best football. Johnson has been so timid going through the hole the past few years that he’s not a huge threat anymore as defenses have learned to keep him contained between the numbers.
Schedule-wise, the Jets have a brutal early stretch as they play Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, and New England in Weeks 2 through 7 and I don’t see them winning one of those games. A 1-6 start to the year would make it tough to finish the season strong, especially when four of their last six (after their bye) are all on the road. Rex Ryan is not a coach I have too much faith in and I would not be surprised to see another media circus surround another year of poor results in New York.
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