Even though he has served just over half of his term, President Barack Obama is already looking ahead to keeping his seat in the White House for an additional four years. In a move that surprised no one, Obama announced earlier this month that he would be seeking re-election in the 2012 race. While Obama is a virtual lock to head the Democratic ticket in next November’s election, it is a wide open race on the Republican side.
Here’s a look at the top four favorites to capture the 2012 Presidential election along with an overview of Donald Trump’s possible run for the White House:
Barack Obama (-200 or 1-2 odds)
History has shown that most incumbent Presidents have been able to win re-election. Since the 1900 election, nominated incumbents have gone 14-5 in Presidential elections. While this is a positive note for Obama, some more recent elections may indicate that an incumbent may no longer have too much of an edge. Since 1976, the incumbent mark is just 3-3. Another related record also favors Obama. Only once since 1900 has a non-incumbent political party won the Presidency in an election and then lost the White House seat in the following election. This happened in 1980 when the Democrats lost the Presidency after just one term. In other words, when a different political party assumes the Presidency, that party almost always wins at least one more election before a different party regains the Presidency.
Mitt Romney (+1000 or 10-1 odds)
Many political analysts feel that the former Governor of Massachusetts is the most likely candidate to challenge Obama on the Republican side. He came up short for the 2008 Republican nomination but Romney could be poised to win this time around. While his Mormon faith could be a bit of a liability in a general election, there is some solid support for Romney among most Republicans.
Sarah Palin (+1000 or 10-1 odds)
While Palin has brought some energy and attention to the Republicans, her presence on the party’s 2008 ticket wasn’t enough to defeat the Democrats. Palin’s has many supporters but there are also plenty of doubters as well. Many feel that she is too much of a celebrity to be viewed as a credible Presidential candidate.
Rob Portman (+1200 or 12-1 odds)
The Ohio Senator is a bit under the radar in the Republican Party. While Portman isn’t a household name, he could emerge as an alternative option to some of the more notable candidates that are likely to be in the mix next year. Most of the top Republican candidates are former Governors that do not have experience in Washington. In addition to his current duties as a senator, Portman also has 12 years of service as a congressman.
Donald Trump (+4000 or 40-1 odds)
The New York business mogul is exploring a run at the 2012 White House. While many Democrats are skeptical of Trump’s desire to seek the Republican nomination, a couple of recent polls suggest that he could have some real support in the party. Like Palin, there might be too much of a celebrity status for Trump to be viewed as a credible Presidential candidate.
2012 U.S. Presidential Election Odds To Win:
(odds from Bodog.com)
- Barack Obama -200
- Sarah Palin +1000
- Mitt Romney +1000
- Rob Portman +1200
- Hillary Clinton +1500
- Joe Biden +1500
- Mike Huckabee +1500
- Michael Bloomberg +2000
- Condoleeza Rice +2000
- Bobby Jindal +2000
- Evan Bayh +2000
- Jeb Bush +2000
- Tim Pawlenty +2000
- Bill Frist +2500
- Charlie Crist +2500
- Bill Frist +2500
- Rudolph Giuliani +2500
- David Petraeus +3500
- Donald Trump +4000
- Ron Paul +4500
- John McCain +5000
- Mark Warner +5000
- Newt Gingrich +5000
- Joe Wurzelbacher +8000