Week 9 is set to wrap on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field where the Green Bay Packers will look to remain perfect in the NFC North in their MNF skirmish with the hated rival Chicago Bears. The Packers will enter tonight’s spot winners of four in a row both SU & ATS after disposing of the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday night, while the Bears will enter off their bye looking to snap a two-game losing road streak.
Green Bay currently checks in as lofty 10.5-point favorites for this grudge match with the ‘total’ lined at 49.5-points.
BEARS – PACKERS 2013 WEEK 9 MNF LINE::
OPEN: PACKERS -10 | CURRENT: PACKERS -10.5 | O/U: 49
1. Why the BEARS will cover the spread: The Bears will easily cover the spread in this game if the offense continues to execute the way it has all season long. Now granted, Jay Cutler won’t be running the show, but veteran Josh McCown proved to be fully capable of running this offense in the 2nd half at Washington completing 14-of-20 passes for 204 yards and a TD.
Green Bay currently owns the 4th best rush defense (83.6 YPG), but I’m not sold on it with the L/4 opponents faced below average in rushing the pigskin. RB Matt Forte has averaged 4.6 YPC and his dual-threat ability will go a long way in deciding Chicago’s fate in this match-up.
2. Why the PACKERS will cover the spread: Chicago’s defense is currently a shell of its former self. Injuries up front and in the LB corps have completely turned one of the most dominating units in all of football from a season ago into a bunch of pushovers. It’s giving up an average of 391 YPG (#27) and ranks in the bottom third vs. both the pass (273.7 YPG) and run (117.3 YPG).
That probability of both QB Aaron Rodgers and rookie RB Eddie Lacy having huge nights for their fantasy backers is extremely high. On top of that, the Packers have won all three of their home games played to date by an average of 16.3 PPG.
3. Total Talk: Combined, these teams check in 10-4 to the ‘over’ this season. Chicago has played to high scorers in all three of their games played away from Soldier Field, but surprisingly, the ‘under’ has cashed in two of Green Bay’s three home games. The Bears defense was on the decline at the end of last season, so it comes as no surprise to see the ‘over’ 8-1 in their L/9 overall as bad as the defense has been at the outset of 2013.
The ‘under’ is 10-1 in the L/11 meetings of this historic rivalry, but the ‘over’ is 20-7 the L/27 times Green Bay retook to the gridiron after allowing more than 30 points its previous game.
4. Betting Trends for Bears/Packers: Those that believe Green Bay is simply going to walk all over the Bears due to the fact that its won each of the L/6 clashes and covered five of those games have got another thing coming. The Packers defense is not good; period! I mean come on, Minnesota just hung 31 points on it! Chicago’s isn’t up to snuff either, but at least it’s been able to force some turnovers (18) while Green Bay’s hasn’t (7). The Bears improved O-Line should also be able to limit the Packers’ pressure and allow for McCown to find his bevy of receiving targets in Forte, Marshall, Jeffery, and Bennett.
Bottom line, the Bears finally have the offense to compete with Mr. Discount Daaaaable Check and company for once, and with them fresh off the bye, I expect them to do just that in a classic Monday night shootout.
PACKERS 35 – BEARS 32