Patriots-Falcons Odds, Picks, Score Prediction Week 4
The New England Patriots are an undefeated 3-0 team, but they haven’t played a team that is going to be anywhere near the postseason. They are going on the road to take on the Atlanta Falcons this week, a team that is just 1-2 and has blown two games that really should have been won. Atlanta is the short favorite (-2) at home, while the ‘total’ at the Georgia Dome is 49.5 for Sunday Night Football.
PATRIOTS – FALCONS 2013 WEEK 4 SUNDAY NIGHT LINE:
OPEN: FALCONS -2 | CURRENT: FALCONS -2 | O/U: 49.5
1. Why the PATRIOTS will cover the spread: The Patriots will cover the number in this game if they really are as good as this 3-0 record suggests. However, we aren’t all that sure of that fact. Beating the Bills, Jets, and Bucs isn’t all that much of an accomplishment, but this would be a better gauge. New England will also cover this game if it continues its success in red zone defense this year. The team is going against one of the worst red zone teams in the game this year, knowing that the Falcons have already coughed up a pair of games by failing in the red zone far too many times.
2. Why the FALCONS will cover the spread: The Falcons will cover the spread if they can keep the ball moving through the air. Unfortunately, WR Roddy White still doesn’t totally look healthy, and WR Tony Gonzalez is only fourth on the team in receiving yards. New England is only allowing 188.3 passing yards per game, but it hasn’t faced a real quarterback yet this year.
The Falcons are still without RB Steven Jackson, who is going to sit for a second straight week. Atlanta also has to overcome other injuries, such as the ones to LB Sean Weatherspoon, DE Kroy Biermann, FB Bradie Ewing, and OT Sam Baker.
3. Total Talk: Since playing to a relatively disappointing 40 points in the game against the New Orleans Saints, the Falcons have sent two games into the 50s and pushed both of them past the number. New England meanwhile, one of the top ‘over’ teams in the league over the course of the last few seasons, is just 0-3 for ‘over’ bettors thus far in 2013. In regards to this series, the ‘over’ is 3-2 in the last five meetings, but of course, there isn’t a lot of history between these two.
4. Betting Trends for Patriots/Falcons: These two teams have both been awful this year from an ATS standpoint at 1-2 ATS. Neither one has lived up to the hype that they had at the start of the season, and neither is going to end up in the playoffs if they keep playing like this in spite of New England’s record. The Pats have won and covered all three games in this series since the turn of the millennia. These games have been relatively close and a lot closer than margins of victory of 16, 3, and 14 suggest.
Atlanta 27 – New England 20