If there is any hope for any team to run down the Pats in the AFC East, this is a game that has to be won by New York. The field is three back of New England, and in all likelihood, things are going to get worse before they get better. The Jets are getting 6.5 to start off the week in this 8:20 p.m. (ET) kickoff.
1. Why New England will cover the spread: The Patriots will cover the spread as long as their offense functions without TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk broke his forearm in last week’s win over the Indianapolis Colts, and now he’s on the shelf for the rest of the regular season in all likelihood. With TE Aaron Hernandez still hurting, the possibility is there that there won’t be any tight ends on the roster that were with the team at the outset of the campaign. That means more for WR Wes Welker and WR Julian Edelman.
2. Why New York will cover the spread: The Jets will cover the spread if they figure out how to score some points. It seems like a bit of a duh statement, but New York has had four games this year in which it has failed to score more than 10 points. In games scoring more than 10, the Jets are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS. Obviously, regardless of all of those offensive stats, any team is going to have to get into the scoring column time and time again to beat New England, and this won’t be the exception.
3. Total Talk: The Jets are also 5-1 for ‘over’ bettors when they can score more than 10 points in a game, and they’re just 0-4 when they don’t. The rival’s first meeting of this season made it past the number with 55 total points, which was the highest scoring game of the year for the Jets. New England started off the year with two straight ‘under’ games, but since that point, it has rolled off eight straight ‘overs’ and has scored at least 23 points in all eight games.
4. Betting Trends for PATRIOTS/JETS: There’s definitely a lot to look at here. New England is 4-1 SU and ATS on the road this year, and it has scored at least 30 in four of the five games. This is already the Jets’ sixth home game of the year, and they have had a real mixed bag of results, going 3-2 ATS. They’re 2-0 ATS against likely playoff teams in the conference here at MetLife Stadium though, covering the Texans in a loss and beating the Colts down 35-9. Since 1999 though, the Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their L/13 trips to Gotham.
New England 34 – New York 17