Super Bowl XLVI is set, and while one of the combatants was expected to be here as the New England Patriots have been the favorites to win the AFC all season, there was a lot of doubt about their opponents, the New York Giants, even making the playoffs about a month ago.
Well, the Giants have been the best team in the playoffs since they began, yes even better than the Patriots. Meanwhile, New England already got a glimpse of what the Giants will probably do defensively in its fortunate escape vs. the Ravens, except that the Giants have been doing it better the last three weeks and they already beat the Pats in Foxboro this year.
ODDS: OPEN: PATRIOTS -3.5 | CURRENT: PATRIOTS -3 | O/U: 55
1. Why New England will cover the spread: The Patriots will cover this spread if Tom Brady can bounce back from a sub-par performance vs. the Ravens with a more typical Brady effort. The Patriots had looked invincible in their no-huddle offense prior to the Ravens game and they could potentially be even better if that’s possible on a fast turf inside a dome. The Patriots will also cover the spread if Coach Bill Belichick can devise a game plan to neutralize the great Giants’ pass rush, and as you can see in the trends section below, Belichick has been terrific in same season revenge situations.
Belichick now having two weeks to prepare that game plan and Brady almost never having two bad games in a row are the main reasons why we are backing off of our gut instinct pick of the Giants here, especially with this spread so atypically low for a New England game.
2. Why New York will cover the spread: This one is easy to figure out, the Giants will cover this spread if their defensive line just continues to do what it has been doing and get to Brady before he has time to connect with his plethora of weapons. The fact that the Giants can do that without blitzing is a major positive here. The Giants will also cover the spread if they run the ball effectively. That would serve two purposes as it would eat up clock and keep Brady on the sideline, and it would also set things up for Eli Manning to continue his fantastic season throwing the ball.
Now one would assume that the Giants can do those things rather easily vs. the New England defense, but we said the same thing about the Ravens last week and the Pats were able to shut down Ray Rice.
Patriots vs. Giants 2012 Super Bowl Betting:
- Patriots vs. Giants Expert Picks: CLICK HERE
- Patriots vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: CLICK HERE
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3. Total Talk: The Giants should still score their share of points even with New England improved defensively and we think that Belichick will find a way to solve the Giants’ defense in two weeks, so we think this sneaks ‘over’.
4. Betting Trends for the game: Bill Belichick is 28-10 ATS in same-season revenge games. New England is 51-18 straight up and 40-28-1 ATS off of an ATS loss since 2001; Tom Brady’s rookie year. To top it off, Brady is 9-3 ATS in domes.
New England 31 – New York 27
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