Super Bowl XLVI is set, and while one of the combatants was expected to be here as the New England Patriots have been the favorites to win the AFC all season, there was a lot of doubt about their opponents, the New York Giants, even making the playoffs about a month ago.
Well, the Giants have been the best team in the playoffs since they began, yes even better than the Patriots. Meanwhile, New England already got a glimpse of what the Giants will probably do defensively in its fortunate escape vs. the Ravens, except that the Giants have been doing it better the last three weeks and they already beat the Pats in Foxboro this year.
Thus, the Patriots are only (-3 -125) favorites in the Big Game, with the total set at 55½. We really want to pick the Giants in this game, we really do. But…
ODDS: OPEN: PATRIOTS -3.5 | CURRENT: PATRIOTS -3 | O/U: 55
1. Why New England will cover the spread: The Patriots will cover this spread if Tom Brady can bounce back from a sub-par performance vs. the Ravens with a more typical Brady effort. The Patriots had looked invincible in their no-huddle offense prior to the Ravens game and they could potentially be even better if that’s possible on a fast turf inside a dome. The Patriots will also cover the spread if Coach Bill Belichick can devise a game plan to neutralize the great Giants’ pass rush, and as you can see in the trends section below, Belichick has been terrific in same season revenge situations.
Belichick now having two weeks to prepare that game plan and Brady almost never having two bad games in a row are the main reasons why we are backing off of our gut instinct pick of the Giants here, especially with this spread so atypically low for a New England game.
PATRIOTS vs. GIANTS Expert Picks | Who is the public betting on?
2. Why New York will cover the spread: This one is easy to figure out, the Giants will cover this spread if their defensive line just continues to do what it has been doing and get to Brady before he has time to connect with his plethora of weapons. The fact that the Giants can do that without blitzing is a major positive here. The Giants will also cover the spread if they run the ball effectively. That would serve two purposes as it would eat up clock and keep Brady on the sideline, and it would also set things up for Eli Manning to continue his fantastic season throwing the ball.
Now one would assume that the Giants can do those things rather easily vs. the New England defense, but we said the same thing about the Ravens last week and the Pats were able to shut down Ray Rice.
Patriots vs. Giants 2012 Super Bowl Betting:
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- Patriots vs. Giants Player Prop Bets: CLICK HERE
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3. Total Talk: The Giants should still score their share of points even with New England improved defensively and we think that Belichick will find a way to solve the Giants’ defense in two weeks, so we think this sneaks ‘over’.
4. Betting Trends for the game: Bill Belichick is 28-10 ATS in same-season revenge games. New England is 51-18 straight up and 40-28-1 ATS off of an ATS loss since 2001; Tom Brady’s rookie year. To top it off, Brady is 9-3 ATS in domes.
New England 31 – New York 27
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The Patriots have not lost another game since the Giants game that’s a 10 game winning streak. It takes a good deal of self-discipline. If it weren’t for the negative plays the Giants would have lost by 7 and the Patriots by 4. Neither team overpowered their opponent. They just played better. Stats are deceptive. Do the Giants look like a 9+7 team? Are the Patriots really the worst defense in the AFC? How did the lockout affect the performance of both teams?
The Giants will win because they pass the ball (and are fairly good at catching it) instead of always running straight into defense. I mean where you think your going???? Patriots will be all over Manning and play hard defense throughout the game. Still I say 30 23 giants
i always bet against what the media wants you to take. i believe they think brady and his team are better, talk about them all the time and yet the spread is only -3. sounds like a gift, and believe me as a bettor, no one gives you gifts except your family at xmas time. take the GIANTS. good luck all. tom
I have wavered back and forth on this game a truly hard one to pick and feel pretty much assured.
I feel the Giants played the toughest overall defensive opponent in the conference championships.
Giving them the edge for being in this SB, an indecisive no timeout call is why New England is in this one! Pats are overdue for a big stage win, and Tom Brady is overdue for a big stage performance.
That being said, I feel Ely and his receivers are clued in on out playing the Pats recevier, thus giving the G-men a victory 30-23! Victor Cruz MVP!