Saints-Dolphins Odds, Spread Picks, MNF Score Prediction
Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season wraps up in the Big Easy where a pair of undefeated teams will lock horns in the forms of the Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints. The Fins actually did Drew Brees and company a solid last week by taking down the Falcons, while the Saints remained unblemished by taking care of business at home against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Saints currently check in as 6.5-point home favorites with the ‘total’ lined at 47.5 points.
SAINTS – DOLPHINS WEEK 4 MONDAY NIGHT LINE:
OPEN: SAINTS -6.5 | CURRENT: SAINTS -6.5 | O/U: 47.5
1. Why the DOLPHINS will cover the spread: Head Coach Joe Philbin’s club has all the momentum in the world heading into this one after storming back to steal a win from the Falcons in a game they played catch-up in until the final minute. While Miami has allowed its fair share of yards between the 20’s, it’s limited the damage on the scoreboard in serving up an average of just 17.7 PPG against the Browns, Colts, and Falcons. QB Ryan Tannehill seems to be coming into his own, as the second year signal caller has thrown for 827 yards and sports a QB rating of 94.3. Miami has covered five of its L/6 games played and gone 12-4 ATS the L/16 times it opposed a +.500 opponent.
2. Why the SAINTS will cover the spread: The Saints absolutely love playing under the Monday Night lights. Head Coach Sean Payton’s club has covered each of their L/4 MNF betting match-ups, which includes last year’s trouncing of the Philadelphia Eagles in a game many thought they’d lose outright. The offense’s success is once again predicated upon Brees’ right arm – so far so good with the passing attack posting an average of 318.7 YPG (#4). With Jimmy Graham going off the last couple weeks, the Saints will likely ugly up Miami’s 11th ranked red zone scoring percentage. The Fins allowed Tannehill to get thrown to the turf five times last week, and Atlanta only entered that game with two sacks. N’awlens has tallied eight sacks against much tougher O-Lines than the Fins will bring to the dome on Monday night.
3. Total Talk: Interestingly, the Saints have played to low scorers in each of their first three games of the season, while the Dolphins have cashed ‘over’ tickets on two of three occasions. That in and of itself tells me that oddsmakers have overcompensated for what was to be expected of the Saints offense and didn’t take into account the solid brand of ball they’re playing defensively under new DC Rob Ryan. But is the Saints defense as good as suggested, or has it taken advantage of running up against some shoddy/unhealthy offenses? With the ‘under’ 19-7 in the Dolphins L/26 as visitors, I guess we’ll find out.
4. Betting Trends for Saints/Dolphins: These teams have only met twice in the last decade, so there’s really no historical data to pull. What I do know is that Miami had to expend a ton of energy just to pull out the comeback win over the Falcons last week; this is a major letdown spot if I’ve ever seen one and the MNF adrenaline rush will fade once Brees and company get to work. New Orleans has long been a moneymaker in its own house (18-5 ATS L/23), and it will surely want to take care of business here against an overhyped and undefeated opponent with a brutal two-game roady upcoming against Chicago and New England. Lay the chalk and look for the Saints to move to 11-0 SU & ATS their L/11 at home with Payton on the sideline.
New Orleans 30 – Miami 13