Super Bowl 49 is here, and it shouldn’t be all that surprising that it is the two No. 1 seeds, the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks who will be duking it out in Glendale for the right to capture the Lombardi Trophy. This game opened up with a point spread of a pick ’em, proving just how evenly matched these two 14-4 teams are. We are starting to see somebooks list the Patriots at -1. Expect more live movement leading up the coin toss. The ‘total’ started the week at 49.5 and has been bet down to 47.5.
SEAHAWKS – PATRIOTS SUPER BOWL ODDS 2015:
Why the PATRIOTS will cover the spread:
Phil Simms referred to RB LeGarrette Blount as another version of Lynch, and he isn’t kidding. It’ll be tough sledding against a Seattle defense which has outscored teams 130-26 in the second half over its last eight games, but QB Tom Brady is the first healthy and truly elite quarterback which the Seahawks have played during that time.
DB Earl Thomas and DB Richard Sherman were clearly both injured in the NFC Championship Game. It’s too early to tell if either injury will prove to be a factor, but the one thing that is for sure is that if either is slowed, the Patriots are going to figure out how to take full advantage.
Why the SEAHAWKS will cover the spread:
The Seahawks have the defense which can really frustrate the Patriots. It’s going to take the whole two weeks to try to figure out all of the wrinkles of the New England offense, but just as Seattle managed to take down the Denver Broncos last year with defense, the same could possibly be said in this one as well.
There’s just no way that QB Russell Wilson is going to chump up four picks like he did last week against the Green Bay Packers, and he should be in fine form in the Super Bowl. Running the ball has been tough on New England, but RB Marshawn Lynch has really been revved up in recent weeks.
Total Talk SEAHAWKS/PATRIOTS:
Both of these teams have played both of their playoff games past the ‘total’, though the argument could be made that three of those four games had no business getting there.
The last three meetings between these two all exceeded the number, including a 24-23 win for the Seahawks two years ago when New England paid a visit to CenturyLink Field. Last season, the Super Bowl made it past the ‘total’ when the Seahawks were here against the Denver Broncos.
Betting Trends for SEAHAWKS/PATRIOTS:
The Patriots covered the spread last week against the Indianapolis Colts, marking the first time since December 14th that they beat the number. The Seahawks didn’t cover against Green Bay, and that was their first ATS defeat since November 16th. They are still 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Seattle covered last year in the Super Bowl, but it should absolutely be noted that there is no coach in NFL history who has more wins in the playoffs than Bill Belichick.
Seahawks 25-5 SU last 30 games as favorites
Seahawks 9-0 SU (5-3-1 ATS) last 9 games as playoff favorites
Seahawks 6-1 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC East
Seahawks 6-1 SU last 7 playoff games
Seahawks 4-2-1 ATS last 7 playoff games
Seahawks 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 meetings with Patriots
Seahawks 10-4 SU last 14 games vs. AFC (1-8 SU previous 9)
Seahawks 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC
Patriots 1-5-1 ATS in 7 previous Super Bowl appearances (3-4 SU)
Patriots 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 games vs. NFC
Patriots 1-3 SU last 4 games vs. NFC West (11-0 SU previous 11)
Patriots 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. NFC West (11-0 ATS previous 11)
Patriots 5-10 ATS last 15 playoff games (8-7 SU)
OVER 3-0 in last 3 meetings (UNDER 3-0 previous 3)
OVER 13-3 in Seattle’s last 16 games vs. AFC East
OVER 12-3 in Seattle’s last 15 games vs. AFC
OVER 5-1 in New England’s last 6 games vs. NFC West
UNDER 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games vs. NFC
UNDER 5-1 in New England’s last 6 playoff games as underdogs
SEAHAWKS – PATRIOTS SUPER BOWL PREDICTION 2015:
Patriots 23 – Seahawks 20