The San Francisco 49ers almost blew a 28-point lead at New England on Sunday night, but in the end they had their statement win and they could now clinch the NFC West with a win this week. It will not be easy however as the Seattle Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 both straight up at ATS at home and are coming off of back-to-back 50-point games!
SF 49ERS – SEAHAWKS SNF BETTING LINE:
OPEN: Pick’em | CURRENT: 49ERS -1 | O/U: 39
1. Why San Francisco will cover the spread: The 49ers will cover this spread if they have their usual rushing success. As great as the Seattle defense has been this year, the Seahawks are vulnerable to good running attacks as they are allowing 4.5 yards per carry, and the Niners are beyond “good”, ranking second in the NFL with 162.9 rushing yards per game on 5.2 YPC.
San Francisco rushed for 175 yards the first time these clubs met in a 13-6 win, and that was with Alex Smith at quarterback. The Niners now have dual threat at quarterback in Colin Kaepernick, and that uniqueness makes San Francisco dangerous vs. any defense.
2. Why Seattle will cover the spread: Although the last two 50-point games have been keyed by great rushing, the Seahawks will cover this spread if they can establish the passing game with Russell Wilson early. You see the 49ers rank third in the NFL in rushing defense at 91.1 yards per game on 3.6 yards or carry, so taking them by surprise a bit with a “backwards” game plan could be Seattle’s best course of action.
The Patriots were able to put up 34 points on the San Francisco defense because Tom Brady threw the ball 65 times and passed for 443 yards, and the Seahawks simply do not play that kind of style.
3. Total Talk: We have great respect for how far the Seahawks have come this year and we realize that Seattle just may be the most difficult venue for visiting teams in the NFL, and almost certainly the loudest. However, with the division title on the line, we simply feel that the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the ball and will find a way to get this done. Frank Gore rushed for 131 yards on 16 carries in the first meeting and the success of both he and Kaepernick running the ball could eventually quiet the raucous crowd.
The Seahawks will not go down without a fight though and Wilson is improving as a passer every week, giving the Seahawks some balance to go along with the running of Marshawn Lynch. Seattle won’t score 50 points again but look for this game to sneak ‘over’, with the quarterbacks playing a bigger role than the first meeting.
4. Betting Trends for the game: The 49ers are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The ‘over’ is 11-1 in the Seahawks’ last 12 games in December.
San Francisco 23 – Seattle 21