We went 1-2 with our straight up upsets in Week 6, but we actually had a slightly profitable week as the winner was West Virginia at +210 over Texas! That make two winning weeks in a row after we called two straight up upsets in Week 5. Let’s try to call at least two upsets in Week 7.
UPSET #1: Auburn (+6) +175 at Mississippi – Yes, Auburn is a surprising 1-4 both straight up and ATS while Mississippi is 5-1 ATS while going 3-3 straight up, but it seems that has caused an unrealistic line swing in this contest. Granted, Auburn has quarterback issues, but so does Mississippi. While Bo Wallace threw for 305 yards in a 30-27 home loss to Texas A&M last week, he also threw two more interceptions, leaving him with just as many interceptions as touchdown passes this year with eight apiece.
Rebels’ coach Hugh Freeze wondered aloud to the media before last week if a quarterback change was necessary, so Wallace can’t feel secure even after those 300 passing yards. Ole Miss also struggles against the run, ranking 66th in the country while allowing 152.7 rushing yards per game, and Auburn does have a couple of talented but inconsistent running backs that can take advantage in Tre Mason and Onterio McCalebb. At this price, we will take our chances that Auburn runs the ball well this week, keying the upset.
UPSET #2: Stanford (+8) +255 vs. Notre Dame – Notre Dame Football is back and so is the hype surrounding it. While we concede that the Irish defense has been very impressive, the offense’s only good performances came in Week 1 vs. a Navy defense ranked 63rd nationally in total defense and last week vs. a Miami defense ranked 122nd, allowing 510.8 yards per game. Now, Stanford slipped to 55th in total defense after last week’s 54-48 overtime win over Arizona, but Stanford’s weakness is its secondary, as the Cardinal rank seventh in the country in rushing defense at just 77.4 yards per game and a minuscule 2.7 yards per carry.
Notre Dame had two 100-yard rushers and 376 rushing yards total in the 41-3 rout of Miami, but quarterback Everett Golson was ordinary once again. If the Stanford run defense performs true to form, we may see the Notre Dame offense that failed to top 20 points in three of it five wins. So the key to an upset here would be whether or not Stanford can score at least 20 points on the great Irish defense. At this price, we will vote yes for a Cardinal offense that had great balance while piling up 617 total yards last week.
UPSET #3: TCU (+8) +255 at Baylor – TCU was upset at home 37-23 at home last week by Iowa State after quarterback Casey Pachall was suspended after being arrested for a DWI in the middle of the week. Backup Trevone Boykin was erratic in the defeat, completing 23-of-40 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown, but throwing three interceptions. However, he will now get a full week of practice in with the starting unit. Also remember that the last time we saw the Baylor secondary two weeks ago, it surrendered 656 passing yards and eight touchdown passes to Geno Smith and West Virginia!