Week 14 NFL Point Spreads – Week 14 NFL Picks – NFL Public Bet % – NFL ATS Standings

A month ago no one was circling their calendar for the week 14 Thursday night game between the Steelers vs. Browns. However, this matchup should breathe new life into a bored mid-week sports bettor as Pittsburgh has lost 4 straight games, 2 of which to teams they were double digit favorites, dropping their record to 6-6. The Steelers defense has been atrocious in recent weeks and with a 2-4 record on the road, expect Cleveland to keep this game just close enough to possibly cover the 10 points. In recent weeks, the Brady Quinn lead Cleveland offense has managed to be just efficient enough to win 3 straight games against the spread (NFL ATS Standings).

The last month of football has been especially rough on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. A 4 game losing streak with 2 of those losses coming to Kansas City and Oakland, only magnify the issues surrounding the defense. During the last 3 weeks, opponents have had little trouble moving the ball and scoring on this defense. Teams are averaging 24.7 points per game which is up 5 points. They are throwing the ball for an average of 254 yards per game, up from 219.7. And once in the red zone, opponents are scoring almost 56% of the time which is up over 11% from their season average. Any hope of a Troy Polamalu return to spark the team, will have to wait another week as the short-week does nothing to help him get on the field faster. The problems with Steelers certainly does not stop with their defense; the offense has also struggled to protect the football.

Anytime a team loses 4 straight games especially when some of these teams are amongst the worst in the league, sorry Raiders and Chiefs fan, the issues run deeper than just one-side of the ball. The absence of Ben Rothlisberger to post concussion headaches obviously hurt in the loss against Baltimore, but I doubt it would have changed the outcome. Similar to the defense struggles in the last 3 weeks, the Pittsburgh offense has been giving the football away far too regularly. The quarterback position has been responsible for 5 interceptions during the past 4 games and the team has lost the turnover battle in 3 of the last 4 games with a -3 turnover margin during their losing streak. Combine that with a team that is already one of the worst in sacks allowed, and it is easy to see why this team has lost 4 straight games and has started to put way too much pressure on themselves.

The fact that Pittsburgh is 2-4 on the road certainly is a good thing for the Cleveland fan. Like most teams in the league, they are less effective offensively and more susceptible on the defensive side of the ball. This would be encouraging for most teams, expect most teams are not the Cleveland Browns with an 0-5 home record. Cleveland is one of the worst teams in football and do not let anybody tell you otherwise. Having gone through multiple quarterback changes, and ranking at or near the bottom in points scored, points allowed, total yards, total yards allowed, and about any other major significant statistical category, this team is not good. The glimmer of hope for this week is not a victory for Cleveland, but a potential to cover the spread. Recent weeks have shown a Cleveland team that is trending upward in a few key areas, giving us reason to believe they can cover the 10 to 10.5 points.

In the last 3 games Cleveland has discovered a mediocre offense to go along with the still horrid defense. While playing against Detroit, Cincinnati, and San Diego; the team has managed a robust 22.3 points per game with Brady Quinn throwing for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The team is averaging 7 more first downs a game and has increased their yards per game from 242.4 to 326.7. Although it still ranks 32nd in the league, the Browns offense is trending upward with Quinn under center. Defensively the team is still just as bad. They have actually given up more points, 28, and more yards, 418 during the same span. The big change for Cleveland is the offensive “explosion” that has helped them cover the spread in recent weeks.

This season, the 1-11 Cleveland Browns have been surprisingly average against the spread with a record of 6-6. In Cleveland’s last 9 games, the team is 6-3 ATS, going 3-0 the last 3 weeks. Pittsburgh on the other hand, has been a huge let down for bettors with a record of 4-8 ATS. They are 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games and 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road. The only positive trend for Pittsburgh is a 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland. The total points for this Thursday night contest is listed at 33.5. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games on the road and OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 9 games when playing Cleveland. For Cleveland, the total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 6 games.

Week 14 Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Pick: The -10 to -10.5 will be tough for this struggling Pittsburgh team to cover this week, especially on a short week. I do not expect a Cleveland upset, but I do see Cleveland’s much improved offense scoring enough to provide the cover. The over/under total of 33.5 points seems low for what both of these teams are capable of doing, especially based on recent trends. Pittsburgh can still put up points; Cleveland still gives up a lot of points, and now we have a Cleveland team that has been able to put up nearly twice there average in recent weeks. I like the OVER.





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